F1MG Qatar GP Pick Ems Presented by GridRival

Lightsoutf1bets and f1capper go into the newest Pick Ems app GridRival and others to discuss the Qatar GP race picks

Grid Rival is a dedicated Motorsports Fantasy & Betting app that is constantly growing its offering. Join the app here: https://gridrival.app.link/F1MoneyGang

Make sure you join our Discord with up to date picks and latest F1 news, and discussions : https://discord.gg/qp3Nz3k3Zq

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**Introduction**

- The hosts, Lightsoutf1bets and F1capper, introduce the episode, emphasizing that it will focus solely on Pick'ems apps, particularly GridRival.
- They mention the availability of a Discord channel for real-time discussions and updates on F1 betting.
- The hosts encourage listeners to support the podcast through donations to ensure the continuation of quality content.

**GridRival Overview**

- The hosts discuss GridRival, a dedicated motorsports fantasy and betting app that offers a variety of features and a growing selection of motorsports.
- They highlight the user-friendly interface and the focus on motorsports, including Formula 1, NASCAR, MotoGP, and potentially IndyCar, WEX series, and IMSA in the future.

**Qatar Grand Prix Discussion**

- The hosts reflect on the challenging Qatar Grand Prix weekend, mentioning the unique characteristics of the track, the impact of track limits on qualifying, and the element of traction due to the new track surface.
- They acknowledge the difficulties in predicting the outcome of the race, considering the various factors at play.

**GridRival Picks and Strategies**

- The hosts delve into GridRival's pick'em options, explaining the concept of pairing multiple drivers and the potential rewards for successful picks.
- They emphasize the importance of understanding the driver positions and how they influence the bottom of the grid, as well as the impact of expected finished drivers on the lines.
- The hosts share their approach to creating pick'em cards, suggesting a focus on two or three cards initially and combining bottom feeders with higher-ranked drivers to increase the chances of success.

**Tire Strategy Considerations**

- The hosts discuss the uncertainty surrounding tire strategy for the Qatar Grand Prix, given Pirelli's concerns about the tires' performance on the new track surface.
- They highlight the potential impact of a three-stop race on driver positions, especially for those starting in the lower grid positions.
- The hosts analyze the tire data available in the Discord channel and identify drivers with new tires, emphasizing the advantage of having a fresh set of tires for the race.

**Driver Analysis and Predictions**

- The hosts analyze the top drivers on the grid, considering their recent performances, tire availability, and potential advantages.
- They discuss Sergio Perez's inconsistent form and express skepticism about his chances of finishing above six and a half.
- The hosts favor Lewis Hamilton as a safe pick, given his strong record, reliable team strategy, and the likelihood of a three-stop race.
- They also mention the potential for Lando Norris to move up the grid, considering his history of outperforming his qualifying position.


- The hosts emphasize the importance of utilizing data and insights from reputable sources to make informed decisions.


- They highlight the potential value in targeting drivers who may benefit from strategic advantages, such as starting position or tire strategy.


- The discussion centers around identifying drivers who could potentially outperform their odds, with a focus on drivers who may have a better chance of finishing in higher positions than their current projections suggest.


- The hosts also explore the concept of combining multiple bets into a single ticket to potentially increase the payout.


- They acknowledge the inherent risk associated with Formula One betting due to the unpredictable nature of the sport, emphasizing the need for careful consideration and analysis before placing bets.


- The hosts provide specific examples of drivers and matchups that they believe offer favorable betting opportunities based on their analysis.


- They also touch on the importance of managing risk and unit allocation, suggesting strategies for diversifying bets and maximizing potential returns.


- The episode concludes with a brief overview of the key takeaways and insights discussed throughout the podcast.


**Key Points:**

- Formula One betting involves a high degree of risk due to the unpredictable nature of the sport.


- Utilizing data and insights from reputable sources is crucial for making informed betting decisions.


- Identifying drivers who may benefit from strategic advantages can provide betting opportunities.


- Combining multiple bets into a single ticket can potentially increase the payout, but also carries increased risk.


- Careful consideration and analysis are essential before placing bets.


- Managing risk and unit allocation is important to maximize potential returns and minimize losses.

# Formula One: Qatar Grand Prix Race Picks & Strategies


**Pit Stops**

- The hosts analyze pit stop data and trends to identify drivers with favorable pit stop averages.
- Yuki Tsunoda stands out as a valuable pick for over 2.85 seconds in pit stops due to his teammate Liam Lawson's impressive pit crew performance.
- Max Verstappen has shown a recent trend of slower pit stops, making him a potential fade option for over 2.1 seconds.
- Lewis Hamilton is another driver to consider fading for over 2.85 seconds, as his pit stop times have generally remained above that mark.

**Additional Insights**

- Lance Stroll is a driver to keep an eye on, but his recent struggles suggest caution in selecting him.
- The hosts emphasize the importance of focusing on trends rather than narratives when analyzing pit stop data.
- Pit crew performance can vary based on factors such as contract renewal considerations and the desire to impress during the season's final races.
- The hosts encourage listeners to join their Discord server for up-to-date picks and Formula One discussions.
- They also announce their plans to attend the Austin Grand Prix and invite listeners to meet them there.

**Conclusion**

- The hosts wrap up the discussion by expressing their excitement about partnering with GridRival and their plans for creating content during the Austin Grand Prix weekend.
- They remind listeners about the benefits of using GridRival and encourage them to download the app.

[00:00.000 -> 00:08.000] Welcome to the F1 Money Gang Pick'ems presented by Grid Rivals.
[00:08.000 -> 00:14.000] Yes, this is probably one of many shows that we're going to be doing here.
[00:14.000 -> 00:19.000] This is strictly Pick'ems apps only.
[00:19.000 -> 00:23.000] We will maybe touch on some DFS at times and fantasy leagues,
[00:23.000 -> 00:27.920] but today our main focus is just going to be the pickums side of the app.
[00:28.560 -> 00:31.240] As you guys know, we have the Discord channel.
[00:31.240 -> 00:32.400] You can find us in there.
[00:32.400 -> 00:38.440] We are talking odds live constantly happening 24 seven, especially right now.
[00:38.440 -> 00:42.640] So come and talk to Qatar Grand Prix
[00:43.200 -> 00:45.040] betting if you want in grid, right.
[00:45.100 -> 00:49.600] Uh, I'm sorry in our discord, but our main focus today is going to be pick
[00:49.600 -> 00:55.060] them and I got our one and only lights out bets F one what's going on.
[00:56.040 -> 00:57.240] Hey man, good to be here.
[00:57.280 -> 00:59.980] I think we're both pasting on smiles after that shit show
[00:59.980 -> 01:01.240] of a sprint race to bet on.
[01:01.960 -> 01:04.560] Yeah, but we're back for more pain tomorrow, baby.
[01:04.980 -> 01:06.840] It's been super painful.
[01:06.840 -> 01:11.800] And for the listeners, if you have been living under a rock or never followed
[01:11.800 -> 01:15.680] F1, well, let me just tell you as a shit show.
[01:16.320 -> 01:20.240] So this weekend, I will just touch on the few things that we noticed.
[01:20.240 -> 01:27.960] Uh, I would, the things that we would say, the variables that we were not expecting,
[01:27.960 -> 01:32.880] which was one, Qatar, it's not the typical,
[01:32.880 -> 01:36.120] you know, motorsports track for,
[01:36.120 -> 01:38.200] or at least I would say an F1 car.
[01:38.200 -> 01:40.380] It's, any car can go on there,
[01:40.380 -> 01:42.520] but it is really made for MotoGP.
[01:42.520 -> 01:44.200] I think you pointed that out.
[01:44.200 -> 01:45.600] Been there twice, I think you pointed that out. Been there twice.
[01:46.360 -> 01:49.580] I think in the past two years or past three years, I'm sorry.
[01:50.180 -> 01:53.500] Before that, I don't, I couldn't recall the last time they were there.
[01:53.500 -> 01:55.060] I think it was like in the two thousands.
[01:55.640 -> 02:00.120] So it's not a typical track that they're used to throwing that it's a sprint week
[02:00.440 -> 02:02.720] weekend, so you have less tires.
[02:02.940 -> 02:07.280] Pirelli doesn't know how their tires are going to react at this track too.
[02:07.640 -> 02:13.040] And then the elements at Qatar, which was traction being very critical
[02:13.100 -> 02:15.000] between the sand new surface.
[02:15.980 -> 02:21.600] And then the one thing that was the massive variable in the entire
[02:21.600 -> 02:29.920] weekend, which could still won't play in as big an effect as it was today, but it could play tomorrow just depends on how
[02:29.920 -> 02:32.160] these drivers are track limits.
[02:32.540 -> 02:35.460] Obviously that was a crucial thing in qualifying.
[02:35.460 -> 02:38.260] They just delete your time and that's where we're having trouble.
[02:38.560 -> 02:43.440] But with the race, you do get a little bit of leniency to a point.
[02:43.640 -> 02:46.700] Then penalties will start getting accounted for
[02:46.700 -> 02:47.700] at that point.
[02:47.700 -> 02:50.940] So those were just a few variables to call out.
[02:50.940 -> 02:52.820] It was very tough, tough day.
[02:52.820 -> 02:57.660] Yes, it's like we battled and we're licking our wounds a little bit today.
[02:57.660 -> 02:58.660] But I'm excited, man.
[02:58.660 -> 03:02.580] I want to focus on grid rival.
[03:02.580 -> 03:05.400] You know, for most of the listeners that may not know
[03:05.400 -> 03:06.540] what grid rival is,
[03:08.840 -> 03:12.480] obviously if you've been playing price picks, underdog,
[03:12.480 -> 03:15.200] you guys understand that the concept of pick them,
[03:15.200 -> 03:19.600] you got to pick multiple drivers and then you pair them up,
[03:19.600 -> 03:22.520] maybe go up to like five, six X
[03:22.520 -> 03:27.520] and then your winnings go from like twox to whatever it was. I can't
[03:27.520 -> 03:34.400] remember what the max is at this point. But Grid Rival has launched a beta for a lot of us,
[03:34.400 -> 03:41.600] including myself, which I've dived into. And quite honestly, man, I've never been a big fan of
[03:41.600 -> 03:45.920] Pick'em until you introduced it to me, actually.
[03:45.920 -> 03:51.320] And I downloaded my two apps, I think it was PricePicks and Underdog.
[03:51.320 -> 03:54.020] I was entered into a whole new world.
[03:54.020 -> 03:55.020] I didn't like it.
[03:55.020 -> 03:56.020] I'm not going to lie.
[03:56.020 -> 04:01.480] I didn't like it at first, but then I started getting the understanding and I saw that there
[04:01.480 -> 04:04.960] was value, especially with F1, obviously.
[04:04.960 -> 04:05.200] And that's
[04:05.200 -> 04:12.080] where I've strictly focused. But Grid Rival launched, they have a beta, and quite honestly,
[04:12.080 -> 04:17.680] and I kid you guys not, this app is actually pretty badass, especially because they are
[04:17.680 -> 04:27.120] just focused on motorsports. So NASCAR, MotoGP, especially F1, of course. And I've been kind of getting into the ear
[04:27.120 -> 04:29.040] and saying, you've got to get me IndyCar.
[04:29.040 -> 04:30.800] IndyCar is something I really want,
[04:30.800 -> 04:33.280] and it may go further beyond with the WEX series,
[04:33.280 -> 04:35.240] IMSA, you never know.
[04:35.240 -> 04:39.480] So beautiful app is something that I just absolutely love.
[04:40.600 -> 04:43.200] And if you guys wanted a promo code, you can find it.
[04:43.200 -> 04:44.480] You can download the app.
[04:44.480 -> 04:47.740] It's just right there in our links, in our description.
[04:48.160 -> 04:56.460] So mobile only, but before I've dominated what grid rivals is, I wanted to get
[04:56.460 -> 04:58.220] Malcolm to talk a little bit about it.
[04:59.020 -> 05:00.600] Yeah, I think you, you nailed it.
[05:00.660 -> 05:01.600] You summed it up there.
[05:01.600 -> 05:04.000] A really approachable group.
[05:04.060 -> 05:06.720] And you can tell that everybody
[05:06.720 -> 05:09.020] involved over there is a motor sport fan.
[05:09.100 -> 05:12.540] It really shines through and the way they've developed their product.
[05:12.660 -> 05:14.300] Uh, they really take a bottom up approach.
[05:14.300 -> 05:20.740] Their whole angle is the motor sports crowd is one big enough that it justifies
[05:20.760 -> 05:25.360] its own, uh, betting company provide, you know, fun and entertaining
[05:25.360 -> 05:28.840] options on the sports book and on the pick them side and fantasy.
[05:29.360 -> 05:33.760] Um, and two it's untapped and it's, it's largely ignored by
[05:33.760 -> 05:36.880] major sports books and, and, uh, DFS apps.
[05:37.280 -> 05:40.320] The way these apps typically work is they take more of a top-down approach.
[05:40.720 -> 05:45.000] Focus naturally on the major sports, the mainstream sports, we call
[05:45.000 -> 05:49.480] them NFL, NBA, MLB are the main ones over here in North America.
[05:49.880 -> 05:52.320] And, uh, you know, they, they take a lot of action.
[05:52.400 -> 05:56.000] So at the end of the day, they're their motor sports line makers
[05:56.000 -> 05:57.280] don't have nearly enough resources.
[05:57.280 -> 06:00.840] Sometimes it's a guy just simply copying other books, lines, uh, grid
[06:00.840 -> 06:04.560] rival is, is not taking that approach at all there they're doubling down on the
[06:04.560 -> 06:06.380] opportunity, the growth we're seeing
[06:06.380 -> 06:09.840] in, in not just formula one, but all of the formula leagues and all the
[06:09.840 -> 06:13.600] motor sports leagues, and just a really exciting partnership for us because.
[06:13.840 -> 06:18.180] You know, if, if somebody in our discord or even somebody on Twitter, like has a
[06:18.180 -> 06:21.660] good idea, tags us, tags them, they'll actually listen to it and check it out.
[06:21.660 -> 06:25.680] So we're already seeing some of our input, um, showing up
[06:25.680 -> 06:29.920] in a lot of their line options and just couldn't be happier to, to be working alongside these guys
[06:29.920 -> 06:35.520] as they grow, as we go, as we grow, we think it's a fantastic partnership. And, uh, you know,
[06:35.520 -> 06:40.000] between me, capper and the listeners, some of their lines are pretty loose as they, as they
[06:40.000 -> 06:50.880] still figure out how to, how to, um, fine tune their projections and stuff. So we'll hopefully take advantage of a few of those tonight to to be totally up front.
[06:50.880 -> 06:54.320] Kaper and I intentionally didn't look at any lines before this show.
[06:54.320 -> 06:59.120] So the idea is the listeners and the viewers that take the time to listen to this, not just for
[07:00.960 -> 07:08.280] not just for guitar tomorrow, but also for for any GP weekend when you're building your picks, you can see our thought process and how we think through
[07:08.280 -> 07:11.680] this stuff and how the driver's positions, what we think will happen, how that
[07:11.680 -> 07:16.000] stacks up or how that impacts the bottom of the grid, you know, how like total
[07:16.200 -> 07:19.800] expected finished drivers, classified drivers, how that influences the lines,
[07:19.800 -> 07:20.280] et cetera.
[07:20.280 -> 07:22.120] So excited to do this.
[07:22.280 -> 07:26.180] Uh, we want to keep it short and just bang out kind of, you know, our top two
[07:26.180 -> 07:27.500] or three plays on grid rival.
[07:27.500 -> 07:31.760] We will also look at underdog and price picks towards the end and, uh, get you
[07:31.760 -> 07:34.380] guys some, some place so that you can get them booked in before the race tomorrow.
[07:34.720 -> 07:37.720] Which is 1 PM Eastern time, I believe.
[07:37.740 -> 07:39.200] So we've got 1 PM Eastern.
[07:39.260 -> 07:39.560] Yep.
[07:39.620 -> 07:39.980] Yep.
[07:40.120 -> 07:46.880] Um, no, and it's really awesome description there of, uh, And that's why we have you, right?
[07:46.880 -> 07:51.240] You really get in depth with how these apps work.
[07:51.240 -> 07:53.120] You really get it.
[07:53.120 -> 07:54.840] They are definitely great.
[07:54.840 -> 07:57.120] I think that's probably why I latch on.
[07:57.120 -> 07:59.000] But also just the user interface,
[07:59.000 -> 08:01.880] from a usability perspective,
[08:01.880 -> 08:07.000] I've used PricePick, I've used Underdog, and I gotta say Grid Rivals
[08:07.000 -> 08:10.760] just seems to just catch my eye more than anything.
[08:10.760 -> 08:12.760] I would say out of all the three,
[08:12.760 -> 08:15.560] I would definitely call that out as one of my favorites.
[08:16.840 -> 08:18.480] But yeah, there is definitely an opportunity
[08:18.480 -> 08:19.680] we can go through it.
[08:19.680 -> 08:22.020] Like Malcolm just said,
[08:22.020 -> 08:24.440] we have not actually looked at the lines.
[08:24.440 -> 08:30.200] I actually said after the race today, I wasn't going to even just look.
[08:30.200 -> 08:31.800] I just needed a little break.
[08:31.800 -> 08:35.200] Also, there was a big football game I had to watch this afternoon.
[08:35.200 -> 08:38.040] So that was probably another reason.
[08:38.040 -> 08:42.560] But without further ado, I will share my screen.
[08:42.560 -> 08:46.320] I'm going to let everyone know it's a mobile app only.
[08:46.320 -> 08:49.480] So unfortunately I can't pull it up on the web.
[08:50.320 -> 08:52.120] I wish I could.
[08:52.120 -> 08:56.160] Ross, if you're listening, get us that web-based.
[08:57.520 -> 09:00.720] But let me at least share my screen
[09:00.720 -> 09:04.680] because I got screenshots from one of our own
[09:04.680 -> 09:05.760] in the Discord.
[09:05.760 -> 09:08.280] So we can all take a look together
[09:08.280 -> 09:10.200] and you can actually see it.
[09:10.200 -> 09:12.760] So you can actually get an idea
[09:12.760 -> 09:14.200] of what this thing looks like.
[09:14.200 -> 09:18.360] So not much of a difference, better or worse.
[09:18.360 -> 09:20.840] You won't get confused, by the way,
[09:20.840 -> 09:23.340] you'll see better or worse, which is kind of nice.
[09:23.340 -> 09:24.180] I like that.
[09:25.360 -> 09:27.320] So let's go ahead and dive into it.
[09:27.320 -> 09:32.880] So this is the first four and obviously it's going to be the top guys.
[09:33.360 -> 09:37.600] You're not going to really see max for step in and that's kind of common, right?
[09:37.600 -> 09:39.440] You're not going to see that really with underdog.
[09:39.440 -> 09:46.540] I think we saw once in the past eight weeks, nine or longer than that, but we got
[09:46.620 -> 09:52.220] Sergio Perez, six and a half Lewis Hamilton, three and a half Lando Norris.
[09:52.740 -> 09:55.840] Four and a half and Charles LeClaire's six and a half.
[09:56.380 -> 09:59.700] And before anything else, I got to make sure I remember the grid, this, what
[09:59.700 -> 10:06.600] the grid is going to be like, I think all mixed up with the sprint sprint race too.
[10:06.680 -> 10:11.000] Um, so yeah, I'll just rattle it off.
[10:11.000 -> 10:11.520] How do you want it?
[10:11.520 -> 10:13.940] How do you want, do you want me to go through all of them first and then we
[10:13.940 -> 10:17.720] come back or should we just focus on these four and go to the next?
[10:17.720 -> 10:18.560] What do you want to do?
[10:18.920 -> 10:23.380] Maybe let's do, um, just, just go over all the options first.
[10:23.380 -> 10:25.720] Then maybe we'll focus on like the top half of the grid.
[10:25.720 -> 10:26.720] All right.
[10:26.720 -> 10:33.280] So called off these four, the next four, we got George Russell at three and a half, Carla
[10:33.280 -> 10:39.960] signs six and a half Lance stroll, 13 and a half Esteban Ocon nine and a half, Pierre
[10:39.960 -> 10:45.580] Gasly, nine and a half album, 11 and a half Yuki, 11 and a half, 11 and a half yuki 11 and a half Valtry Botas 11 and a half
[10:46.280 -> 10:49.200] Magensen 15 and a half Nico 15 and a half
[10:49.780 -> 10:52.440] Joe 15 and a half Logan 15 and a half
[10:52.640 -> 10:59.160] Wow, and then piastri four and a half and then Alonzo five and a half and one thing I do want to call out
[11:00.160 -> 11:07.000] The biggest difference you guys are gonna see out of this is Grid Rivals gives you all these options.
[11:07.000 -> 11:08.840] Most of the other guys won't do it.
[11:08.840 -> 11:11.080] I think Price Picks probably is the one
[11:11.080 -> 11:12.800] when it comes to positioning,
[11:12.800 -> 11:15.480] is gonna be the least amount.
[11:15.480 -> 11:19.360] And then UD maybe has a little bit more.
[11:19.360 -> 11:21.680] Here's a good one.
[11:21.680 -> 11:23.880] I do wanna call out one other thing before,
[11:23.880 -> 11:26.520] and I know I'm getting ADD with this.
[11:26.520 -> 11:31.520] One thing Grid Rivals does, they do match-ups as well.
[11:31.520 -> 11:32.800] And this is one of my favorites,
[11:32.800 -> 11:36.440] and you can combine the match-ups with the positioning.
[11:36.440 -> 11:37.840] And it's basically implying,
[11:37.840 -> 11:39.880] all the implied kind of odds here
[11:39.880 -> 11:42.520] are gonna be similar to what they have,
[11:42.520 -> 11:44.640] but you might catch some fun ones.
[11:44.640 -> 11:46.520] So we got some matchups,
[11:46.520 -> 11:47.880] but we'll get into the matchups in a second.
[11:47.880 -> 11:48.720] Let's go back.
[11:49.600 -> 11:50.440] Whoops.
[11:52.120 -> 11:54.200] So we had Perez, six and a half,
[11:54.200 -> 11:56.120] Hamilton, three and a half.
[11:56.120 -> 11:58.640] My strategy when I've approached this thing,
[11:58.640 -> 12:00.800] and let me know what your thoughts are.
[12:00.800 -> 12:03.840] I like to do two cards first off for all the listeners.
[12:03.840 -> 12:05.280] I'm a two card guy. I like to do two cards first off for all the listeners. I'm a two card guy.
[12:05.280 -> 12:09.180] I like to maybe pick three,
[12:10.200 -> 12:14.480] I like to get three two cards made up with grid rivals.
[12:14.480 -> 12:16.440] Sometimes I go four.
[12:16.440 -> 12:18.320] Very rarely do I go beyond that,
[12:18.320 -> 12:19.360] but that's just the way I look.
[12:19.360 -> 12:21.240] And I try to combine,
[12:21.240 -> 12:22.520] lately what I've been trying to do
[12:22.520 -> 12:29.840] is finding one of those bottom feeders in the 15 and a half, because you just saw, we had four or five in, or let's just say four
[12:29.840 -> 12:34.880] right at this point, that were 15 and a half with one of the guys that's in that five and
[12:34.880 -> 12:39.320] a half, six and a half range, because someone's not going to be in there.
[12:39.320 -> 12:45.080] So that's where I try to focus my attention on is who are those, those likely guys to be better or worse in
[12:45.080 -> 12:49.080] those two range, combine them and then I'll keep finding the others.
[12:49.080 -> 12:53.280] So yeah, yeah, I think that makes total sense.
[12:53.280 -> 12:59.120] Like for the average player who's just starting out their pick them journey, focusing on two
[12:59.120 -> 13:08.440] and three picks is the way to go until you get your feet under you. Um, you probably underestimate just how hard it is to get five
[13:09.040 -> 13:09.720] drivers, right.
[13:09.760 -> 13:12.880] In an F1 race, there's just so much variance, especially
[13:12.880 -> 13:14.240] going into tomorrow's race.
[13:14.720 -> 13:16.020] We have a lot of things to consider.
[13:16.020 -> 13:19.960] So before I go in depth on what all the different factors are, I just
[13:19.960 -> 13:22.720] strongly suggest stick to two and three picks at least off the start.
[13:23.120 -> 13:28.160] Um, nothing wrong with some four and fives if our confidence level is high on a track
[13:28.160 -> 13:32.580] like Monaco, where, you know, there's only a give or take a couple of positions that
[13:32.580 -> 13:37.580] a driver can realistically finish in, um, compared to guitar, like you're seeing 15
[13:37.580 -> 13:38.060] and a half.
[13:38.060 -> 13:41.820] That's the first thing I noticed all the worst drivers are at 15 and a half, which
[13:41.820 -> 13:47.100] tells us grid rival thinks there's going to be at least four drivers that don't finish the race, which is probably
[13:47.100 -> 13:48.520] accurate based on what we saw today.
[13:49.100 -> 13:52.960] Uh, inexperienced drivers going into the sand trap and then they're done.
[13:53.060 -> 13:55.340] Uh, I think that's different than the last time they raced here.
[13:55.340 -> 13:57.640] It seemed like they could get out of the sand last time, but that
[13:57.640 -> 13:59.480] was certainly not the case today.
[13:59.500 -> 14:01.700] We saw three safety cars in 19 laps.
[14:01.700 -> 14:05.600] So it gives you a hint of, um of what we're going to see tomorrow.
[14:05.600 -> 14:10.280] And then as you mentioned in the opening, like it's Pirelli has been pretty upfront
[14:10.280 -> 14:15.680] that they have no clue what's going to happen with the tires and they're clearly quite concerned.
[14:15.680 -> 14:22.240] So I think everybody at Formula One is being pretty, you know, politically correct, but
[14:22.240 -> 14:28.440] the weekend has been a total show. I think, from from an organizing a race and a quality race perspective. But we don't have
[14:28.440 -> 14:32.120] to go on to that tangent. We'll just stick to what we think is going to happen tomorrow.
[14:32.120 -> 14:40.360] Yeah, yeah, no. And I agree. It that's that's what's making this kind of challenging pick
[14:40.360 -> 14:49.280] them sort of betting. It doesn't matter. It's hard to predict what's going to happen. We've also gone back and forth. Are we thinking to stop like last year probably should have, or
[14:50.240 -> 14:55.680] time before it should have been two stops. Now they're saying they're calling that they might
[14:55.680 -> 15:00.800] be requiring three. Um, I think we had some discussions about how long will these tires
[15:00.800 -> 15:06.240] last. You've not only have they just made it, they made it harder on themselves
[15:06.240 -> 15:11.520] by giving them only one FP one session. And obviously with the sprint race, you get less
[15:11.520 -> 15:18.240] allocated tires, which is like, why, why do we do that? Um, so, uh, it's hard to tell what's
[15:18.240 -> 15:27.220] going to happen. I know we had some of the tire data in our discord and we did spot some inconsistency
[15:27.220 -> 15:29.220] I believe someone brought up
[15:29.940 -> 15:31.240] Alpine
[15:31.240 -> 15:35.180] Botas and someone else I can't remember who else that was mentioned
[15:35.900 -> 15:38.100] May be is a Hulkenberg
[15:38.500 -> 15:46.400] Maybe in a disadvantage tomorrow if there is a required three stop. So do we go and approach it with the,
[15:47.280 -> 15:50.720] there's pot, there's, it's probably going to be a three stop.
[15:50.720 -> 15:54.560] If so, you got Hulkenberg starting in 15th position.
[15:54.560 -> 15:56.580] They have a price at 15 and a half.
[15:57.560 -> 16:00.640] Does that mean Joe has an opportunity to get out
[16:00.640 -> 16:02.040] of the 20th position?
[16:02.880 -> 16:05.000] Maybe Magnusussen or Logan.
[16:05.000 -> 16:06.000] Logan's actually...
[16:06.000 -> 16:09.000] Oh no, he's 16th. That's right.
[16:09.000 -> 16:11.000] He's 16th.
[16:11.000 -> 16:15.000] So, not all these guys are going to be there.
[16:15.000 -> 16:18.000] I'm seeing Ocon and Perez.
[16:18.000 -> 16:21.000] Gasly and Alonso.
[16:21.000 -> 16:23.000] All have their hearts.
[16:23.000 -> 16:26.640] As well as stroll.
[16:26.640 -> 16:35.440] And then all of the top seven guys all have a pair of new hearts.
[16:35.440 -> 16:37.800] On the medium front.
[16:37.800 -> 16:42.080] Sorry, this chart is a little bit weird.
[16:42.080 -> 16:46.000] Yeah, it looks like...
[16:46.000 -> 16:48.000] If I could find somebody with two X's...
[16:48.000 -> 16:52.000] Yeah, there's nobody with a new medium and a new hard.
[16:52.000 -> 16:54.000] Which is interesting. You basically have to choose which
[16:54.000 -> 16:57.000] which tire to sacrifice in FP1.
[16:59.000 -> 17:02.000] There's only one team I think that ran hards.
[17:02.000 -> 17:04.000] Two.
[17:06.080 -> 17:09.500] So Albon, this is brand new mediums.
[17:09.500 -> 17:11.680] So Albon has some mediums.
[17:11.680 -> 17:12.520] Yeah.
[17:12.520 -> 17:15.320] Yeah, but he's been struggling all weekend, man.
[17:16.220 -> 17:21.220] Botas, Zenoda, both the Haas, both the Alpha Romeos,
[17:23.040 -> 17:29.280] both the Williams, and both the Alpha Tauris.
[17:29.280 -> 17:35.720] I'm going to guess it's the guys who went out early in the sprint qualifying.
[17:35.720 -> 17:38.560] I'm very tempted.
[17:38.560 -> 17:49.840] One thing I like to do is, and it's not just the grid rival or pick them zap is if I spot something where I'm like that caught my eye immediately,
[17:50.000 -> 17:51.480] I'm going to latch onto that thing.
[17:52.940 -> 17:56.940] It's the first play it's Sergio Perez at six and a half.
[17:59.360 -> 18:06.800] I mean, this is probably the one time that I say, if I fade him, if I go worse than six and a half,
[18:06.800 -> 18:10.600] it's the one time he's probably going to get freaking podium too.
[18:10.600 -> 18:13.400] But he has shown me nothing.
[18:13.400 -> 18:19.040] He's literally shown me nothing to say to give me that confidence that he will be at
[18:19.040 -> 18:21.140] at six and a half or higher.
[18:21.140 -> 18:26.180] I know that sounds like very amateurish style,
[18:26.460 -> 18:27.960] but really, seriously,
[18:27.960 -> 18:31.520] what has he shown us recently to make us think that way?
[18:31.520 -> 18:33.080] But does he have the tires?
[18:33.080 -> 18:37.360] Number one, I do like Red Bull's strategy.
[18:37.360 -> 18:41.820] It's up there with Mercedes, top-notch strategy, right?
[18:41.820 -> 18:44.160] They rarely mess up.
[18:41.840 -> 18:44.160] top-notch strategy, right? They rarely mess up.
[18:47.440 -> 18:52.440] I'm just like, my approach is in general tomorrow is
[18:52.840 -> 18:54.680] what is the safest bets?
[18:54.680 -> 18:56.660] Take the ones that know strategy,
[18:56.660 -> 18:58.440] Red Bull and Mercedes, right?
[18:59.600 -> 19:01.240] Yeah.
[19:01.240 -> 19:04.340] Yeah, you want the drivers that are reliable
[19:04.340 -> 19:05.920] and aren't gonna try to pass
[19:07.040 -> 19:08.760] three wide
[19:08.760 -> 19:10.760] like Perez today
[19:12.400 -> 19:15.440] Like to me Hamilton at three and a half, yeah
[19:16.080 -> 19:21.080] Almost is like I don't like taking those three and a half. So let me just tell you that I think
[19:22.120 -> 19:23.320] Yeah
[19:23.320 -> 19:24.600] Yeah
[19:24.600 -> 19:29.000] but Hamilton better seems like the way to
[19:29.000 -> 19:33.440] go. How does he mess up? What is the way he messes up?
[19:33.440 -> 19:42.760] I'm not going to answer that truthfully, but. But. I think a lot could mean him and Russell,
[19:42.760 -> 19:46.000] him and Russell going into each other of course
[19:50.880 -> 19:52.280] Fighting each other because Russell is second. I'm just worried if there's three pit stops
[19:57.960 -> 19:58.840] Anyone that really shakes things up anyone from the third row back
[20:02.880 -> 20:03.600] Here, let me get off the screen. Yes. Oh, well, okay
[20:05.160 -> 20:09.160] Let's let's talk about this. OK, so you have to I mean, legitimately, you have the top teams
[20:09.160 -> 20:11.400] just sitting there in the top six.
[20:11.400 -> 20:14.680] You have a Ferrari, you have an Aston Martin, you have a you have Piastri,
[20:15.320 -> 20:17.240] Hamilton, Russell Verstappen.
[20:17.240 -> 20:19.200] What let's let's talk.
[20:19.200 -> 20:21.680] Let's forget about Verstappen tires.
[20:21.680 -> 20:23.320] Who has the advantage?
[20:23.320 -> 20:26.120] If there is a three stopper, who has the advantage?
[20:28.680 -> 20:33.680] So Mercedes is gonna lose a half second every pit stop.
[20:35.000 -> 20:39.060] So if there's an extra two, one and a half pit stops,
[20:40.040 -> 20:42.200] you know, lose a second that way.
[20:42.200 -> 20:50.380] But do you trust Mercedes team strategy and driver skill, which they have an edge in?
[20:51.300 -> 20:55.900] Um, one just based on the talent of their guys, but also I think they're
[20:55.900 -> 20:57.340] the only ones that are side by side.
[20:58.300 -> 20:58.960] So.
[21:00.380 -> 21:01.540] And they're in points mode.
[21:01.620 -> 21:02.860] Like they got to rain, wrestle it.
[21:02.860 -> 21:06.480] And cause every time he gets eyes for winning a race,
[21:06.480 -> 21:08.280] like you saw that sprint today.
[21:08.280 -> 21:09.280] Yeah.
[21:09.280 -> 21:13.040] He was just like, I'm going to like, I'm, he's just talking himself up how good he was.
[21:13.040 -> 21:16.400] And he ends up like barely beating Lewis who started 12th or 13th.
[21:16.400 -> 21:18.760] It's like settle down, man.
[21:18.760 -> 21:21.620] He's choked a lot recently when he's at the top.
[21:21.620 -> 21:25.640] And I know today it was mostly just tires, but still, um, in the
[21:25.640 -> 21:32.640] moment he, you can tell he gets busy mentally and, uh, starts, uh, like calling off the
[21:32.640 -> 21:38.040] plan and his engineers clearly today there, there was like two of them on the radio. Like,
[21:38.040 -> 21:40.520] yeah, no, we're not coming in for a pissed off bro. Like settle down.
[21:40.520 -> 21:43.240] And that was, that was a stupid call. Like, why would you do that?
[21:43.240 -> 21:46.400] Yeah. But you can tell in his head, he's almost like signs where he thinks he
[21:46.400 -> 21:51.200] knows better than his team, which isn't like, you just don't see that even, even
[21:51.200 -> 21:56.080] if Max and Lewis and Alonzo feel that way, you like Alonzo's maybe had one slip up
[21:56.080 -> 21:56.440] all year.
[21:56.440 -> 22:00.560] So anyways, my point is, um, I'm kind of rambling here, but I think Lewis is safe.
[22:00.560 -> 22:04.160] Like Lewis, Alonzo and Max are the three guys that aren't going to go off the
[22:04.160 -> 22:11.120] track on this, you know, newly resurfaced track. Um, after that, probably looking at guys like Bottas
[22:11.120 -> 22:18.320] and Albon that can, can kind of bring it home safely. So drivers, drivers, I would, I would,
[22:18.320 -> 22:24.320] uh, back or at the top of the grid and the bottom of the grid. So the front two rows,
[22:21.200 -> 22:22.080] of the grid and the bottom of the grid.
[22:27.560 -> 22:30.200] So the front two rows, and then from there, the more talented drivers, I think Lewis better than three and a half.
[22:30.240 -> 22:33.680] We can agree on Mercedes is going to manage this race.
[22:33.800 -> 22:39.000] Um, and Alonzo and Leclerc are going to hold up the McLaren's.
[22:40.780 -> 22:41.540] At least one of them.
[22:41.620 -> 22:44.680] Cause like North starting in 10th and Alpine's no slouches.
[22:44.680 -> 22:46.840] We can either. And I think they're right beside each other. So
[22:47.680 -> 22:53.720] Well, what about Norris though Norris got his lap time deleted. He should have been what second wasn't it?
[22:53.720 -> 22:56.460] That or third let's just say top
[22:57.120 -> 22:59.520] Is aware in his top three second. Yeah
[22:59.520 -> 23:06.620] Yeah, if he's supposed to be four and a half if they play their cards right I know they had some issues today
[23:09.200 -> 23:11.240] Or during qualifying I believe
[23:12.240 -> 23:13.960] but
[23:13.960 -> 23:17.560] He could he get to could he get back into the top four?
[23:19.000 -> 23:21.000] He has to pass
[23:21.680 -> 23:23.680] Botas Ocon Gasly
[23:24.040 -> 23:28.000] zone teammate Ferrari Alonzo.
[23:28.000 -> 23:31.560] If there's three stops, you would have to imagine they're going to try to undercut.
[23:31.560 -> 23:36.560] And it seems like the, the, the common theme with Norris is that he's been behind Piastri
[23:36.560 -> 23:41.640] in a few qualifying sessions and going into the race, but he ends up ahead of him.
[23:41.640 -> 23:45.060] I know Piastri is a little bit more, he's harder on his tires.
[23:45.800 -> 23:47.300] Maybe we have the answer right there.
[23:47.300 -> 23:48.760] Do we fade Piastri?
[23:49.700 -> 23:56.800] Well, like one, I'm just want to pull up the soft tire data and I know speculating
[23:56.800 -> 23:58.940] on team strategy never works out well.
[23:58.940 -> 24:00.700] Cause they're just have so many more resources.
[24:00.700 -> 24:04.220] They run the simulators and you know, you, you and I kind of spit
[24:04.220 -> 24:08.720] balling, we'll never touch their plans. but like, wouldn't you want to start on
[24:08.720 -> 24:13.480] softs and assume one of the new drivers is going off in the first 10 laps for a
[24:13.480 -> 24:16.320] safety car, like you plan for a safety car in the first 10 laps.
[24:16.320 -> 24:20.040] So your first pit is going to be from softs to hards or mediums.
[24:21.960 -> 24:24.440] They were able to do a solid 10 laps.
[24:24.440 -> 24:25.400] I sounded like, I know there was some safety cars, but it was like, I think it was like, I think it was like, I think it was like, I think it was like, I think it was like, I think it was like, I think it was like,
[24:25.400 -> 24:26.400] I think it was like, I think it was like,
[24:26.400 -> 24:27.400] I think it was like, I think it was like,
[24:27.400 -> 24:28.400] I think it was like, I think it was like,
[24:28.400 -> 24:29.400] I think it was like, I think it was like,
[24:29.400 -> 24:30.400] I think it was like, I think it was like,
[24:30.400 -> 24:31.400] I think it was like, I think it was like,
[24:31.400 -> 24:32.400] I think it was like, I think it was like,
[24:32.400 -> 24:33.400] I think it was like, I think it was like,
[24:33.400 -> 24:34.400] I think it was like, I think it was like,
[24:34.400 -> 24:35.400] I think it was like, I think it was like,
[24:35.400 -> 24:36.400] I think it was like, I think it was like,
[24:36.400 -> 24:37.400] I think it was like, I think it was like,
[24:37.400 -> 24:38.400] I think it was like, I think it was like,
[24:38.400 -> 24:39.400] I think it was like, I think it was like,
[24:39.400 -> 24:40.400] I think it was like, I think it was like,
[24:40.400 -> 24:41.400] I think it was like, I think it was like,
[24:41.400 -> 24:42.400] I think it was like, I think it was like,
[24:42.400 -> 24:43.400] I think it was like, I think it was like,
[24:43.400 -> 24:44.400] I think it was like, I think it was like,
[24:44.400 -> 24:48.480] I think it was like, I think it was like, I think it was like, I think it was like, I think it was like, I think it was like, I think it was like, I think it was like, I think it was like, I guess today they were up against softs. You couldn't really track by the time they got warmed up and everything. I mean,
[24:48.480 -> 24:53.360] they, the guys on mediums were, were, were flying at by the end.
[24:53.800 -> 24:58.800] So it looks like your guy, Lewis has a new set of softs,
[24:58.920 -> 25:02.920] which would make sense. Cause he went out and Q2, yeah.
[25:03.040 -> 25:05.520] Today in sprint and then same with science. Cause he went out in Q2, um, today in sprint and then same with science.
[25:05.680 -> 25:07.600] Cause he went out in Q2 of qualifying.
[25:08.140 -> 25:11.020] So Hamilton with us new set of softs to start off this race.
[25:13.160 -> 25:15.120] Uh, what does Lewis have or sorry, Russell?
[25:15.160 -> 25:16.320] Cause Russell was on softs today.
[25:16.320 -> 25:19.440] So he doesn't even looking it up right now.
[25:19.760 -> 25:19.920] Yeah.
[25:19.920 -> 25:20.720] He's done bad.
[25:20.880 -> 25:22.840] He only has a two.
[25:23.240 -> 25:25.640] Here's here's what I will do.
[25:26.640 -> 25:30.880] I will screen share so that people can see
[25:30.880 -> 25:33.200] what we have in the Discord.
[25:33.200 -> 25:35.000] Yeah, this is all, all these stats and resources
[25:35.000 -> 25:36.600] are available for free in our Discord.
[25:36.600 -> 25:38.520] So if you're planning your slips,
[25:38.520 -> 25:40.240] it's all in one easy spot.
[25:40.240 -> 25:41.840] Boom, look at that.
[25:41.840 -> 25:44.040] What I'm talking about, thank you, Kapper.
[25:44.040 -> 25:45.120] On the far right, it was a little
[25:45.120 -> 25:48.880] confusing to read, but those zeros mean zero laps on their tires.
[25:49.680 -> 25:52.400] The X X means completely brand new.
[25:52.400 -> 25:57.280] So I think zeros might've mean meant they went out for like a warmup lap or
[25:57.280 -> 25:57.600] something.
[25:57.600 -> 26:02.320] I don't really know, but anyways, science has a zero and Hamilton has a zero as
[26:02.320 -> 26:03.520] well as obviously the back of the grid.
[26:03.520 -> 26:04.640] Cause they didn't make it to Q3.
[26:04.640 -> 26:06.120] So they didn't need to burn that set.
[26:07.160 -> 26:11.240] So when you see Hamilton's zero and he's starting from third,
[26:12.600 -> 26:13.720] uh, you got to think he's in good shape.
[26:13.720 -> 26:18.560] Plus he's got a brand new set of hards and a
[26:18.560 -> 26:22.480] brand new set of mediums. There you go. So right there,
[26:23.520 -> 26:26.720] tire strategies or sorry, tire tire availability is gonna go his way
[26:27.440 -> 26:30.620] Plus skill plus he's in the second row
[26:32.360 -> 26:37.600] Are as capable we know that third, right? Yeah, he's third now
[26:37.600 -> 26:41.800] that's the one thing I don't like about pickums right now in the pickums is
[26:43.080 -> 26:47.480] Taking that guy that's already in that spot. But in this situation,
[26:47.480 -> 26:55.440] I think, well, the, the evens are the dirty side of the track. Cause like Norris had a
[26:55.440 -> 27:00.200] terrible lift today. Yeah. But he also was on a cold set of mediums. So that's what we
[27:00.200 -> 27:05.780] learned about the mediums today was right. it took, it was not just one or two
[27:05.780 -> 27:07.320] laps, it took a little bit more.
[27:07.320 -> 27:10.680] And then of course, with the safety car brought them back, right.
[27:10.680 -> 27:12.120] They needed a couple more laps.
[27:12.120 -> 27:17.340] And then when they actually had five or six laps, softs were burning out.
[27:17.660 -> 27:21.360] You saw that those, those mediums were kicking in perfectly for them.
[27:21.500 -> 27:26.720] So, but I like that, what said, though, he has every combo
[27:26.720 -> 27:29.800] of of tire combination he needs.
[27:31.400 -> 27:33.080] Let's just hypothetically say
[27:33.080 -> 27:37.160] that it ended up being like a four stopper for whatever reason,
[27:37.160 -> 27:40.680] because whatever the reason may be, but he still has an option.
[27:40.680 -> 27:46.380] He still has a set of soft second last that's only got one lap on it.
[27:46.380 -> 27:52.000] He's got a few sets of mediums that have some life on it. If you can get, if you can pull
[27:52.000 -> 28:00.620] 25 out of the mediums, 25 or let's just, I'm sorry, let's just say 20 out of the mediums.
[28:00.620 -> 28:09.620] You got plenty of options outside of that. Like the hard should not give you any issues to last for 25 laps.
[28:09.780 -> 28:11.500] Well, how many laps does this race anyways?
[28:11.500 -> 28:11.740] What?
[28:11.760 -> 28:17.400] 50, 57, 59, high fifties, high fifties.
[28:17.460 -> 28:21.240] So you're already at that 50 Mark and then you have a pair of soft.
[28:21.240 -> 28:22.440] So I think you're right, man.
[28:22.500 -> 28:26.120] Like, I think that is it. We're in this approach. Louis three and a half better. pair of softs. So I think you're right, man. Like I think that is,
[28:27.500 -> 28:28.680] safe approach. Three and a half.
[28:28.680 -> 28:30.760] Better, three and a half.
[28:30.760 -> 28:31.660] I feel like,
[28:33.160 -> 28:35.000] and for our listeners,
[28:35.000 -> 28:36.760] I don't typically do these,
[28:36.760 -> 28:40.960] but this is for this weekend specifically, you have to.
[28:40.960 -> 28:44.780] And by the way, if you have any questions,
[28:44.780 -> 28:46.800] if you can tag us even on Twitter.
[28:46.800 -> 28:52.160] You can DM us. I'll even tell you. Because most of the time, one thing I love about Grid Rivals is
[28:52.160 -> 28:57.440] they'll send a push notification to let you know that they've updated the lines. They're one of the
[28:57.440 -> 29:03.920] fastest to update the lines, too. They get it out there by like a Monday or a Tuesday. So that's
[29:03.920 -> 29:09.120] like the first thing I'm loading up and I'm trying to get my cards in before they actually adjust.
[29:09.120 -> 29:14.440] Yeah. Yeah, so there's lots of line, lots of value early when they first drop the lines
[29:14.440 -> 29:15.800] for sure.
[29:15.800 -> 29:22.320] Let's talk about then you said let's let's come let's combine with them. Oh, okay. Who's
[29:22.320 -> 29:28.040] who's at a disadvantage between Ocon and Gasly? One of those two is definitely not hitting 9.5.
[29:28.040 -> 29:30.600] They're both 9.5.
[29:30.600 -> 29:32.040] I'd love to take one.
[29:32.040 -> 29:34.720] You're right. Let's focus on that.
[29:34.720 -> 29:38.680] It sounds like Gasly is the fade,
[29:38.680 -> 29:41.280] because Gasly,
[29:41.280 -> 29:49.340] I mean, he does have a new medium, new set of hards, but all the rest of his tires are
[29:49.340 -> 29:52.140] kind of...
[29:52.140 -> 29:53.460] Okan at least has...
[29:53.460 -> 29:56.260] Okan's kind of in the same position.
[29:56.260 -> 30:00.980] Yeah, Okan got robbed today.
[30:00.980 -> 30:02.380] Where's Okan starting, actually?
[30:02.380 -> 30:05.680] And they're both right next to each other, 7 and 8.
[30:05.680 -> 30:06.680] Yeah.
[30:06.680 -> 30:07.680] Yeah.
[30:07.680 -> 30:17.040] So 7 and 8 plus Norris, Perez and Sines in theory anyway.
[30:17.040 -> 30:18.040] Puts them.
[30:18.040 -> 30:19.040] Yeah.
[30:19.040 -> 30:20.040] Pushes them back.
[30:20.040 -> 30:21.920] 10th and 11th.
[30:21.920 -> 30:25.000] Take the guy who's behind a spot.
[30:27.880 -> 30:29.560] So Ocon?
[30:29.560 -> 30:31.700] Man, I don't know if I wanna do,
[30:31.700 -> 30:34.520] that is one I wanna do a two card though.
[30:34.520 -> 30:36.160] I wanna focus one on them.
[30:37.320 -> 30:40.960] So maybe Ocon, what worse?
[30:40.960 -> 30:44.840] What are the sports books have their head to head at?
[30:44.840 -> 30:47.920] I'm just gonna pull up at 365.
[30:47.920 -> 30:48.920] See it.
[30:48.920 -> 30:49.920] Yeah.
[30:49.920 -> 30:54.840] Ocon is plus 110 to Gasly at minus 150.
[30:54.840 -> 30:55.840] So there's your tiebreaker.
[30:55.840 -> 31:02.200] You know, for the listeners, you kind of take a top-down approach.
[31:02.200 -> 31:05.120] Look at other sharp sports books that you trust,
[31:06.720 -> 31:07.880] trust their data, trust their projections. Obviously they do it for a living.
[31:09.360 -> 31:12.520] And just as a tiebreaker, you don't necessarily have to use them as a Bible.
[31:13.280 -> 31:16.640] Um, but that's what I was suggesting in this case, unless you have something you
[31:16.640 -> 31:20.520] like or don't like about one specific driver capper, I know guys, he's better
[31:20.520 -> 31:21.880] looking, so harder to fade them.
[31:22.800 -> 31:25.840] No, no, I, I don't. I'm actually indifferent to both
[31:25.840 -> 31:28.680] this weekend to be honest with you.
[31:28.680 -> 31:31.720] Yeah, that's a great word for how to approach them.
[31:31.720 -> 31:34.280] Just the they being kind of like
[31:34.280 -> 31:35.720] next to each other.
[31:35.720 -> 31:38.120] I feel like one of them that I
[31:38.120 -> 31:40.160] did want to call out was Albon.
[31:40.160 -> 31:40.800] He has.
[31:40.800 -> 31:43.480] He's got a similar situation to Hamilton.
[31:43.480 -> 31:44.120] He's got.
[31:44.120 -> 31:47.920] He's actually got two sets of mediums that he could use.
[31:50.320 -> 31:51.760] Sunota does.
[31:52.320 -> 31:53.440] Oh, Jesus.
[31:53.440 -> 31:54.400] Stroll does.
[31:55.280 -> 31:56.320] What is Stroll's?
[31:56.320 -> 31:58.080] Stroll's is 14.5.
[32:00.240 -> 32:02.720] Do you actually think he can pull it together in a race?
[32:02.380 -> 32:03.600] Do you actually think he can pull it together in a race?
[32:05.960 -> 32:06.700] so strolls line I
[32:11.540 -> 32:12.060] Think is 14 and a half on prize picks. So it's about the same
[32:17.020 -> 32:18.020] Marcus saying is the same he's 13 and a half on grid rival and I think grid rivals, right?
[32:20.820 -> 32:21.840] So it is it shows 14 and a half of mine
[32:24.500 -> 32:28.240] Does it yeah, yeah, it's 14 and a half on mine. Does it? Yeah. Yeah. It's 14 and a half.
[32:30.160 -> 32:32.200] Who was that looking at at 13 and a half then?
[32:33.600 -> 32:36.080] 13 and a half on mine.
[32:36.880 -> 32:39.080] Maybe it moved.
[32:40.560 -> 32:47.720] But mine shows 14 and a half. If it's 14 and a half, that's an under for me.
[32:47.720 -> 32:52.280] He's only 16th or something, isn't he? He's not in 20th.
[32:52.280 -> 32:54.440] Maybe I'm drunk.
[32:54.440 -> 32:59.600] 17th and with Sgt. and Hulk in front of him.
[32:59.600 -> 33:05.000] Like we got a couple free squares.
[33:07.200 -> 33:09.400] You know what I'm thinking, man?
[33:09.400 -> 33:11.340] You want my wild one?
[33:12.480 -> 33:14.360] You want the one that I think
[33:14.360 -> 33:16.760] that maybe people will think I'm crazy about?
[33:18.200 -> 33:21.520] I'm thinking Piastri worse than four and a half.
[33:25.440 -> 33:30.440] So keep in mind, Alonzo is also worse than four and a half,
[33:31.240 -> 33:34.880] which is pretty awful line.
[33:34.880 -> 33:36.040] Sorry, five and a half.
[33:37.280 -> 33:41.780] Like is Alonzo really gonna stay in the top five?
[33:43.720 -> 33:46.480] I think Alonzo was taken off of grid rivals.
[33:46.480 -> 33:47.520] Now I'm looking at it.
[33:49.440 -> 33:50.640] Oh, you're on your phone.
[33:51.120 -> 33:53.280] I am. I'm looking at it on my phone live.
[33:53.600 -> 33:56.000] Okay, so Stroll bumped up to 14.5.
[33:56.000 -> 33:57.440] Yeah, so some of the...
[33:57.440 -> 33:58.720] That's the thing of beauty.
[33:58.720 -> 33:59.240] Yeah.
[34:00.000 -> 34:01.600] So maybe...
[34:03.440 -> 34:05.000] You're thinking better though, right?
[34:05.560 -> 34:06.880] In 14 and a half.
[34:06.880 -> 34:11.600] Yeah, he can, he can pass a Hulk whose tires will die
[34:11.600 -> 34:14.360] and he doesn't have that much for good tires.
[34:14.360 -> 34:15.200] He has zero hearts.
[34:15.200 -> 34:16.360] Yeah, he's in trouble.
[34:16.360 -> 34:19.920] And then he can pass Sergeant,
[34:19.920 -> 34:21.760] like Sergeant would be in the gravel.
[34:22.680 -> 34:24.800] Stroll kept it together today,
[34:24.800 -> 34:27.320] but maybe that's just because he started so far back.
[34:28.480 -> 34:31.000] He just needs to get one on-track pass
[34:31.000 -> 34:33.280] and then there'll be like a DNF in front of him.
[34:34.520 -> 34:37.080] And then he'll get Hulk, like, on a pit stop
[34:37.080 -> 34:40.600] because Haas just shred through tires
[34:40.600 -> 34:42.280] and take three and a half second pits.
[34:42.760 -> 34:45.400] Like, Stroll will gain three seconds on Hulkenberg
[34:45.400 -> 34:46.800] just on the pit stops alone.
[34:48.080 -> 34:52.140] But yeah, like so far we're going in with Hamilton better
[34:52.140 -> 34:53.100] and stroll better.
[34:53.100 -> 34:55.120] I don't feel super confident in those plays, but.
[34:55.120 -> 34:58.660] I'm not, but I think that is one that you can combine.
[35:00.980 -> 35:09.520] I am looking, I did take it just a quick look at the matchups to see if Alonso was there. Alonso
[35:09.520 -> 35:18.680] is there, but they have him combined in the matchups with Albon. With Albon, a 7.5 gap.
[35:18.680 -> 35:26.000] So for the listeners, when you see the plus, you know, 7. a half which is next to Albon's name. They're saying
[35:26.820 -> 35:28.860] Albon will be within
[35:30.080 -> 35:33.840] better or worse of seven and a half positions of Alonso, so
[35:34.440 -> 35:41.480] Do you think you they will be with will he be further or closer to Alonso in this situation?
[35:41.480 -> 35:43.560] I don't think I want to play with that but I
[35:44.360 -> 35:46.280] Do want to go back to Alonzo.
[35:46.280 -> 35:48.320] You're saying he will fade.
[35:48.320 -> 35:52.000] He will fade to maybe, what, eight?
[35:54.160 -> 35:55.600] Seven or eight?
[35:55.600 -> 35:57.520] Definitely not four and a half,
[35:57.520 -> 35:59.720] whatever he opened at. It's crazy.
[35:59.720 -> 36:03.840] Damn, I kind of wish I did look at my app to see that, man.
[36:03.840 -> 36:05.640] I am not going to lie.
[36:05.640 -> 36:07.240] Five and a half.
[36:07.240 -> 36:08.800] That was the one.
[36:08.800 -> 36:13.240] So he's not passing the three guys in front of him.
[36:13.240 -> 36:15.320] So starting fourth.
[36:15.320 -> 36:17.520] So for him to be fifth or better,
[36:21.480 -> 36:24.680] I just got to talk about like the amount of DNS
[36:24.680 -> 36:27.040] there's going to be tomorrow.
[36:27.040 -> 36:28.820] And how we can't predict those.
[36:28.820 -> 36:29.820] We can't predict them.
[36:29.820 -> 36:31.860] We can kind of lean into it though.
[36:31.860 -> 36:38.020] Like we don't know who it's going to be, but we know there's going to be probably at least
[36:38.020 -> 36:39.180] four cars out.
[36:39.180 -> 36:45.640] So playing any worse slips is going to be risky.
[36:49.320 -> 36:51.160] Which is why I like Sergeant is at 15 and a half. Like you should look at that and be like 15 and a half.
[36:51.160 -> 36:51.800] That's gross.
[36:51.800 -> 36:55.840] There's no way he's going to be, you know, better than five drivers, but
[36:56.440 -> 37:00.520] there's going to be five accidents or four accidents, which is why that's his line.
[37:00.880 -> 37:10.560] Um, and the other thing I wanted to bring up, which is to our benefit, is the underdog side
[37:10.560 -> 37:22.600] of the rivals. If we have tons of DNFs, like Sargent plus 14.5 to Max Verstappen is an
[37:22.600 -> 37:24.640] extreme example of this situation.
[37:24.640 -> 37:25.240] Is that what they have at UD? plus 14 and a half to Max Verstappen is an extreme example of this situation.
[37:25.240 -> 37:26.060] But if Sargent-
[37:26.060 -> 37:28.760] Is that what they have at UD?
[37:29.680 -> 37:32.120] No, this is grid rival or the screenshot.
[37:32.120 -> 37:34.480] Yeah, yeah, yeah, okay, sorry, go on.
[37:34.480 -> 37:35.440] Yeah, no worries.
[37:35.440 -> 37:36.880] Just for the listeners, I'm Canadian,
[37:36.880 -> 37:38.520] so I can't even access these pick them lines yet.
[37:38.520 -> 37:40.560] It's not, they haven't launched up here,
[37:40.560 -> 37:43.000] so I'm just looking at stale screenshots, so my apologies.
[37:43.000 -> 37:48.040] But anyways, you got the worst driver paired with the best driver in this rivalry.
[37:48.040 -> 37:49.040] So Sgt.
[37:49.040 -> 37:54.640] Plus 14.5, if there's only 15 drivers that finish, he automatically wins.
[37:54.640 -> 38:00.680] If he's 15th, minus 14.5 would put him at 0.5 compared to Max's first place, and he
[38:00.680 -> 38:01.680] wins.
[38:01.680 -> 38:05.680] So he's got an out there of just simply finishing tomorrow.
[38:05.680 -> 38:06.920] He's got also got the out.
[38:07.040 -> 38:12.960] It hasn't happened a lot in 2023, but if Max has an engine problem or
[38:13.000 -> 38:17.120] makes a mistake and he's not in first, like if he finished a second or third,
[38:17.120 -> 38:21.480] obviously, um, then that goes to in Logan's favor as well.
[38:21.480 -> 38:26.080] Like if, if Max finishes worse than fifth or sixth, this line automatically
[38:26.080 -> 38:28.280] wins, which has been a non-factor this year.
[38:29.320 -> 38:31.600] So that's just the most extreme example.
[38:31.600 -> 38:32.720] I'm not saying to play that one.
[38:32.720 -> 38:36.360] That one feels very trappy, but like Alex Albon plus seven and
[38:36.360 -> 38:43.640] a half to Fernando Alonso Albon's individual line is 11 and a half.
[38:43.640 -> 38:47.860] So what's 11 and a half or sorry. Yeah. 11 and a half minus seven and a half. So what's 11 and a half minus, or sorry. Yeah. 11 and a half
[38:47.860 -> 38:53.280] minus seven and a half is fourth. So they're assuming Alonzo is going to be fourth. Like
[38:53.280 -> 38:58.040] that's gross. We should probably jump all over that. Cause Albon will finish if he,
[38:58.040 -> 39:04.480] again, always the DNF risk with every single driver for sure. For sure. More DNF risk in
[39:04.480 -> 39:07.680] the midfield because they're trapped compared to the start
[39:07.680 -> 39:09.600] of the grid and the back of the grid.
[39:10.480 -> 39:15.120] Albon is starting right in the middle.
[39:15.860 -> 39:17.240] He's starting 14th.
[39:17.400 -> 39:17.900] Yeah.
[39:17.960 -> 39:18.920] Smack in the middle.
[39:18.920 -> 39:20.680] If there's an accident in front, you can't dodge it.
[39:21.200 -> 39:23.480] If somebody crams them or rear ends them, like the least
[39:23.480 -> 39:24.660] skilled drivers are at the back.
[39:24.840 -> 39:28.200] They're the ones that are going to late break and steer into them.
[39:28.200 -> 39:33.400] So high BNF risk, but his rival against Alonzo looks very strong.
[39:33.460 -> 39:36.740] If he finishes the race, we have to assume he finishes ahead of Sergeant.
[39:37.520 -> 39:46.040] Um, both Hosses, probably at least one Alfa Tauri, at least one of the Alpha Romeos. That line, like 11 and a
[39:46.040 -> 39:54.840] half is a fair line, but his rival is, is, um, off price because a lot, they're inflating
[39:54.840 -> 39:55.840] Alonzo's value.
[39:55.840 -> 40:06.560] Yeah. I'm still stuck on Piastri, man. I'm not going to lie. I think one of my favorite ones now that we've talked about Hamilton and
[40:08.000 -> 40:13.040] Just in disentire t of it one of my favorite plays on grid rivals right now is
[40:14.200 -> 40:18.920] the matchup Hamilton over Piast re by one and a half I
[40:20.200 -> 40:24.840] Honestly, I believe that is one of the plays
[40:25.000 -> 40:26.500] That needs to be combined with something else and that is one of the plays
[40:28.780 -> 40:30.260] that needs to be combined with something else and that's gonna be the winner.
[40:30.260 -> 40:32.180] Gotta find that second winner.
[40:32.180 -> 40:35.940] So what is it about Piastri that makes you wanna favor him?
[40:35.940 -> 40:39.220] Just in a race, he continuously,
[40:39.220 -> 40:44.040] like he showed us how well he was today without pits.
[40:44.940 -> 40:47.760] He had medium set of tires too, right?
[40:47.760 -> 40:54.640] Or did he have the soft, uh, when he started mediums, cause Russell passed them on softs.
[40:54.640 -> 41:00.360] He had, he had mediums, right? So the mediums we saw came through, they were fine. Like
[41:00.360 -> 41:06.880] every single person, we know that it didn't matter which driver you had a set of mediums who were passing that person on softs.
[41:07.800 -> 41:12.180] One downfall to Piastri is he is definitely harder on his
[41:12.180 -> 41:13.880] tires than his teammate.
[41:14.120 -> 41:19.740] And it's, it's shown he's been awesome in one lap, just quality SIM runs.
[41:20.200 -> 41:26.120] He's been awesome in, you know, small sample runs, five laps.
[41:26.120 -> 41:28.960] You can see it on the, in the data with practices.
[41:29.300 -> 41:34.040] And then you saw today with how well he did with 20, but put him in a race.
[41:34.520 -> 41:36.480] And he's got to fight people.
[41:36.780 -> 41:38.900] He's got to do different things.
[41:38.960 -> 41:43.240] Fuel load is much different and he's pushing hard.
[41:43.800 -> 41:45.820] He's going to be harder on his tires.
[41:46.320 -> 41:49.920] And we go back and we've been spent a lot of time talking about Hamilton.
[41:49.920 -> 41:53.200] And I don't need to rehash that we know he, and we're implying
[41:53.200 -> 41:54.840] he's going to stay in that top three.
[41:55.500 -> 41:59.500] Do we really think Piastri is going to just continue to stay up the field?
[42:00.200 -> 42:07.040] Or he's going to have to sit here and battle LeClaire, Alonzo, the two Alpine bros.
[42:07.040 -> 42:13.000] And then, you know, Morris, his own teammates, science Perez, like he's still got to fight
[42:13.000 -> 42:14.000] those guys.
[42:14.000 -> 42:15.000] Right.
[42:15.000 -> 42:17.040] And then do we really think he's going to win that battle?
[42:17.040 -> 42:21.640] And then on top of that, his tire situation is not the same as Hamilton's.
[42:21.640 -> 42:22.920] And team brought up a good point.
[42:22.920 -> 42:25.160] The straight line speed has always been their weakness.
[42:25.160 -> 42:30.800] They're they have to qualify well and then defend their position usually to the likes
[42:30.800 -> 42:31.800] of Mercedes.
[42:31.800 -> 42:34.520] Well, in this case, Mercedes is in front of them.
[42:34.520 -> 42:35.520] Yeah.
[42:35.520 -> 42:38.400] So the top three is probably spoken for.
[42:38.400 -> 42:42.680] And then yeah, look, Claire is going to be tough to pass.
[42:42.680 -> 42:46.960] Alonzo is never easy to pass, even if he's in an inferior car.
[42:47.560 -> 42:51.760] And then he's got his own teammate, which, you know, by the halfway point,
[42:53.080 -> 42:56.440] yeah, McLaren will be figuring out how to overcut or undercut.
[42:57.560 -> 42:58.960] Piastri to get Norris in front of him.
[42:59.040 -> 42:59.740] Well, I don't know.
[42:59.760 -> 43:01.280] Maybe not, maybe not after today.
[43:01.440 -> 43:05.580] They view them more as equals, but yeah, like, uh,
[43:05.840 -> 43:10.920] Piastri isn't far enough out of the trouble, like guys like Russell and
[43:10.920 -> 43:16.700] Hamilton will be insulated from the surge from signs Perez and Norris coming
[43:16.700 -> 43:20.040] from 10th to 13th, 10th and 13th, all the way up to grid.
[43:21.040 -> 43:25.360] Um, they're going to have to battle through piastri and through the Claire.
[43:25.940 -> 43:27.220] So they got a tough task.
[43:27.220 -> 43:29.700] So that's going to insulate the Mercedes very nicely.
[43:30.380 -> 43:33.220] It's going to make Alonzo's life a lot easier and it's going to make
[43:33.220 -> 43:34.900] pastries like the living hell.
[43:34.900 -> 43:36.500] And I think fading him in general.
[43:37.100 -> 43:39.740] Um, yeah, there's a risk he gets tangled up.
[43:40.220 -> 43:45.840] There's gonna be a lot of overtakes in that back half of the Q3 people.
[43:47.280 -> 43:47.780] Yeah.
[43:48.880 -> 43:51.520] Yeah, I know. We've been noodling on this for a little while.
[43:51.520 -> 43:54.480] I think we can probably keep going.
[43:56.240 -> 43:58.960] But I wanted to see if you wanted to input anything
[43:58.960 -> 44:03.120] in terms of your pit stops with price picks very quickly.
[44:03.120 -> 44:04.400] I know you are.
[44:04.400 -> 44:06.480] Let's confirm our grid rival slip then.
[44:06.880 -> 44:08.920] Okay. There you go. Let's do that.
[44:09.360 -> 44:11.760] Here's what I have. Okay. Go for it.
[44:13.080 -> 44:16.640] Hamilton better three and a half. We've talked ourselves into that one.
[44:17.160 -> 44:21.560] Yeah. I'll show long Albon rival over Alonzo.
[44:22.200 -> 44:23.200] It's my favorite play.
[44:24.280 -> 44:27.180] And my second favorite play is stroll better than 14 and
[44:27.180 -> 44:35.140] a half. And then the other one that you talked about is either Ocon or Gasly worse, which
[44:35.140 -> 44:37.900] you're thinking you're going to build a couple of slips with each.
[44:37.900 -> 44:45.360] I think so. I am. And I'm tempted to in, and I was looking at the matchups to their but it's basically the same
[44:45.360 -> 44:48.220] It's implying that nine and a half, but the LeClaire
[44:50.260 -> 44:57.040] LeClaire is paired with Gasly at three and a half and I think they have LeClaire being at six and a half
[44:58.000 -> 44:59.320] with
[44:59.320 -> 45:03.040] Gasly nine and a half, right? So there's an implied three and a half there
[45:03.040 -> 45:11.840] So do I really think LeClac is going to be better or worse so I'm thinking of doing that Hamilton matchup with either one I was
[45:11.840 -> 45:16.240] thinking maybe I pair it with one of your favorites you said your first favorite is
[45:16.240 -> 45:25.000] Albon 14 and a half Albon rival or Albon I'm sorry seven and a half that as my matchup card.
[45:25.000 -> 45:28.520] And I'm going to do that potentially.
[45:29.360 -> 45:33.560] And then do, because I can't combine, you can't do Hamilton and in Hamilton again.
[45:33.600 -> 45:36.480] So just FYI, you can't, I can't do two Hamiltons.
[45:36.480 -> 45:37.640] Otherwise I would have done that.
[45:38.680 -> 45:42.480] Then do maybe Hamilton with three and a half and then Schroeder.
[45:42.480 -> 45:43.520] So I'm going to do that.
[45:43.520 -> 45:49.800] And then I'm going to do a Hamilton with three and a. Um, then do maybe Hamilton with three and a half and
[45:49.800 -> 46:03.320] then stroll 14 and a half better. And then pick another two Carter between Gasly, uh,
[46:03.320 -> 46:05.080] in Ocon. We said Ocon though, right?
[46:05.080 -> 46:07.760] That was the one that was probably gonna be the worst.
[46:07.760 -> 46:08.600] Yeah.
[46:10.920 -> 46:13.440] And again, I can't play on this app,
[46:13.440 -> 46:15.760] but I do Hamilton better, Ocon worse,
[46:15.760 -> 46:18.360] Albon rival and Stroll better.
[46:18.360 -> 46:23.360] Or is today the day that I say F the two carters,
[46:23.360 -> 46:25.240] let me just do these top five.
[46:26.720 -> 46:28.480] It's not the track for it, but if,
[46:29.420 -> 46:32.200] yeah, like unit allocation, put a full unit
[46:32.200 -> 46:36.400] in a couple, maybe two or three combos of a two leger
[46:36.400 -> 46:40.040] and then do one half unit four or five leger.
[46:41.800 -> 46:47.280] Yeah, so unfortunately I can only do $10 per card.
[46:47.280 -> 46:52.000] I'm going to have to do multiple to get myself to a unit.
[46:52.000 -> 46:55.480] Here's what I'm going to do.
[46:55.480 -> 46:59.680] I'm going to book this card because I want to split my matchups.
[46:59.680 -> 47:05.200] I'm going to do Hamilton with Stroll Better.
[47:08.880 -> 47:10.780] The Hamilton against Piestre matchup. Stroll Better.
[47:12.080 -> 47:13.840] That's one, it's in.
[47:15.520 -> 47:17.680] Hold on, it's asking for my location.
[47:18.640 -> 47:21.600] I'm gonna show everyone.
[47:21.600 -> 47:22.920] Hold on, it's still saving.
[47:22.920 -> 47:24.920] It's still saving.
[47:24.920 -> 47:25.800] Boom. Entry still saving. Boom.
[47:26.640 -> 47:27.960] Entry confirmed.
[47:27.960 -> 47:29.140] Good luck.
[47:29.140 -> 47:30.760] Yes, I'll charge my phone.
[47:30.760 -> 47:31.600] Very nice.
[47:33.000 -> 47:33.840] That's one.
[47:33.840 -> 47:34.680] Okay.
[47:34.680 -> 47:36.400] I was gonna show what the app looked like too
[47:36.400 -> 47:37.880] in the App Store.
[47:38.840 -> 47:41.520] Just in case anybody wondering.
[47:41.520 -> 47:46.000] And then I'm gonna do Hamiltondog and price picks while I do that. Yes, you do that while I keep looking at some of those great rivals.
[47:46.000 -> 47:50.000] I feel like I got to just do one of these bottom feeders.
[47:50.000 -> 48:05.500] I'm going to do a Hamilton with a, a, a,, you do that while I keep looking at some of those current rivals.
[48:05.500 -> 48:10.500] I feel like I gotta just do one of these bottom feeders, man.
[48:10.500 -> 48:12.000] Oh, I see.
[48:14.500 -> 48:16.500] So this is where it gets fun.
[48:18.000 -> 48:20.000] Oh, because you're at 15.8.5.
[48:22.000 -> 48:24.500] Just wait until you see these underdog lines, man.
[48:26.060 -> 48:26.300] Yeah, let. Yeah.
[48:26.300 -> 48:27.340] Let me, let me see.
[48:27.460 -> 48:28.460] Let me see what you got.
[48:28.900 -> 48:29.720] Let's go see.
[48:30.940 -> 48:31.880] Can I share my screen?
[48:32.660 -> 48:33.020] Oh yeah.
[48:34.320 -> 48:34.680] All right.
[48:34.680 -> 48:35.300] There we go.
[48:36.440 -> 48:39.020] So exactly what we said before.
[48:40.760 -> 48:43.500] We're giving grid rival advice.
[48:43.500 -> 48:47.480] Like you're going to want to juice your back grid guys to lower,
[48:47.560 -> 48:50.800] lower finishing positions. If you think there's gonna be a lot of DNFs,
[48:51.560 -> 48:53.040] underdog didn't get the memo on that.
[48:53.320 -> 48:58.320] So underdog is floating Sergeant better at
[48:58.320 -> 49:02.560] 17 and a half compared to 15 and a half on grid rival. And again,
[49:02.560 -> 49:04.840] grid rival is new. So we can't assume that they're,
[49:08.040 -> 49:08.160] they're any smarter than anybody else.
[49:12.200 -> 49:12.880] This is just our, our own, our own opinions on how we think the race is going to go.
[49:17.520 -> 49:21.040] Joe at 17.0, which Joe starting at the very back. So if somebody in front of him wipes out, he gets to just slow down and chill under
[49:21.040 -> 49:23.520] safety car, and he got a free position without passing anybody.
[49:24.640 -> 49:29.880] Whereas if, uh, say Mercedes that happens and there's a wipeout in the midfield, they don't gain
[49:29.880 -> 49:34.920] any positions. So betting these backer guys is huge when there's gonna be lots of DNFs.
[49:34.920 -> 49:39.680] Kevin Magnussen 17.0 don't love that line, but it's again, it's better than grid rival.
[49:39.680 -> 49:47.160] And then same with Nico Hulkenberg at 16 and a half. They agree with you that Alpine will do well to get a point.
[49:47.840 -> 49:51.120] Alonzo is up to 6.0 on here.
[49:52.520 -> 49:54.160] And then Stroll, same line.
[49:54.200 -> 49:57.000] So, so everybody has the same opinion on Stroll.
[49:58.920 -> 50:02.480] The problem with this card, if I play all of these guys, is that it has a lot of
[50:02.480 -> 50:04.840] the drivers that aren't very good.
[50:05.040 -> 50:08.680] So they're not like one of them is going to DNF.
[50:09.520 -> 50:13.480] So I'll just, I'll just ensure it and throw a 10 box on it.
[50:16.320 -> 50:21.680] That is how we bake up a nice back grid under you saw it live.
[50:23.240 -> 50:27.400] I don't have any opinion on any of these drivers. I'm just playing the macro. And it's interesting too, how they've priced it.
[50:28.400 -> 50:35.400] It's like, they're just two spots lower on grid rival than what underdog has.
[50:35.400 -> 50:38.000] Because they have all these at like 17 and a half, 17.
[50:38.800 -> 50:42.120] All those same guys were like 15 and a half on grid rivals.
[50:43.120 -> 50:44.040] Yeah. Where are they?
[50:44.560 -> 50:46.160] Yeah, right there. So, yeah, I were looking at the backgrade guys. That's why I had to cut you off.
[50:46.160 -> 50:48.480] Cause we had to do a bit of line shopping on the pickups.
[50:48.480 -> 50:52.360] There's enough, there's enough options now where you can, uh, you know, if you
[50:52.360 -> 50:56.200] wanted to, if you loved Hulkenberg, cause he's a good driver, even though he has,
[50:57.240 -> 51:00.280] um, his race, yeah, he's a good driver.
[51:00.280 -> 51:01.160] He's a good driver.
[51:01.160 -> 51:01.960] He's a good driver.
[51:01.960 -> 51:02.680] He's a good driver.
[51:02.680 -> 51:03.400] He's a good driver.
[51:03.400 -> 51:04.120] He's a good driver.
[51:04.120 -> 51:04.800] He's a good driver.
[51:04.800 -> 51:07.640] He's a good driver. He's a good driver. He's a good driver. He's a good driver. He's a good driver. He's a good driver. He's a good driver. He's a good driver. I'm excited for those guys in Austin with their upgrades. But the point being, if you love him or you love Joe, you should be playing it on the
[51:07.640 -> 51:09.040] softer line, which is underdog.
[51:09.040 -> 51:10.040] Yeah.
[51:10.040 -> 51:11.040] 17.
[51:11.040 -> 51:12.040] So you heard it first.
[51:12.040 -> 51:17.400] So we don't have to say much else about, unless there's any other lines that hop out of you,
[51:17.400 -> 51:18.400] signs is up to you.
[51:18.400 -> 51:19.400] Signs is up to you.
[51:19.400 -> 51:20.400] I'm not going to say anything else.
[51:20.400 -> 51:24.400] I'm just going to say, I'm going to say, I'm going to say, I'm going to say, I'm going
[51:24.400 -> 51:25.320] to say, I'm going to say, I'm going to say, I'm going to say, I'm going to say, I'm going the softer line, which is underdog. Yeah. 17. So you heard it first.
[51:28.960 -> 51:31.160] So we don't have to say much else about, unless there's any other lines that hop out of you, signs is up to seven and a half on here.
[51:31.160 -> 51:34.040] I know he's six and a half on, on grid rival.
[51:34.040 -> 51:38.920] I had a note on him, like, is Carlos signs really going to crack the top six from,
[51:39.720 -> 51:40.280] from 12th?
[51:40.280 -> 51:41.080] Is he that guy?
[51:42.600 -> 51:43.520] Oh man.
[51:43.640 -> 51:45.000] Um, looking at this grid. Is he that guy? Oh man.
[51:46.100 -> 51:50.960] Looking at this grid.
[51:53.440 -> 51:55.520] The thing, I think there's a correlation between signs in the Alpines.
[51:56.640 -> 51:58.160] More than anything.
[51:58.160 -> 51:59.000] Burn.
[52:00.360 -> 52:02.640] I just think that if you're gonna say
[52:02.640 -> 52:06.240] Carlos signs is gonna be at that six and a half, seven and a half, then one ofainz is going to be at that 6.5, 7.5,
[52:06.240 -> 52:09.600] then one of those guys is not going to be there, if not both.
[52:09.600 -> 52:14.080] Same could be said, I guess, with Perez as well.
[52:14.080 -> 52:18.160] And that's exactly how they have it priced.
[52:18.160 -> 52:21.200] Perez is 6.5 and...
[52:21.200 -> 52:27.440] What is he on, Underdog? He's not even on an underdog.
[52:30.800 -> 52:31.520] Yeah. So, so to Capra's point, these apps pay out at two to one.
[52:35.800 -> 52:41.240] So on grid rival or even let's do it on our dog, just because that's what I can actually click on. So I'm not actually going to book this ticket, but you can say
[52:42.480 -> 52:44.920] there's no room for Ocon in the top 10.
[52:44.960 -> 52:46.120] But you can say there's no room for Ocon in the top 10.
[52:48.360 -> 52:48.840] If sorry, he's way up here.
[52:50.840 -> 52:51.840] If signs fits in.
[52:55.960 -> 52:57.360] So basically we're saying science is going to do good and we're going to get paid out two to one.
[52:58.560 -> 52:59.960] Pays up, pays up to three times.
[52:59.960 -> 53:01.840] So it pays you your initial plus two units.
[53:01.840 -> 53:08.100] So that's like, we're looking at rivalries today for the sprint.
[53:08.100 -> 53:13.120] And it's like Alonzo or Hamilton at even money Alonzo over Hamilton at minus one
[53:13.120 -> 53:17.980] 50, it wasn't the exact same bet, but on the pick of maps, you could go Alonzo
[53:17.980 -> 53:21.760] better and Hamilton worse, and their lines were the same, there was some
[53:21.760 -> 53:25.480] instances where Alonzo could still beat Hamilton and they'd both be better.
[53:25.480 -> 53:30.080] They'd both be worse, but, um, you know, for like twice as much return,
[53:30.560 -> 53:33.480] you can sometimes look to these pick-em apps, which have, they pay out the
[53:33.480 -> 53:36.900] exact same if, if you get your two picks, right, no matter what the line
[53:36.900 -> 53:40.600] is compared to books where they, they adjust the payout, but they don't
[53:40.620 -> 53:41.900] adjust the finishing position.
[53:41.960 -> 53:47.560] So just some nuance, if you have access to sports books and pick them. So that's my rant. I don't know.
[53:47.560 -> 53:50.880] Um, if there's anything else you love besides our back.
[53:51.720 -> 53:56.240] No, I think that the only other thing to point out was Albon is, you know,
[53:56.240 -> 54:00.520] 13 and a half on underdog 11 and a half here. So, um,
[54:01.040 -> 54:06.000] I, I wore, I just stressed about that one. I think that if I'm going to do better, yes, exactly.
[54:06.000 -> 54:08.940] I would do better there because of his tire situation.
[54:09.460 -> 54:14.580] Of course we can sit here and beat a dead horse about, uh, DNS, but I don't
[54:14.580 -> 54:21.420] want to think about DNS in the, in this right now, though he has had his
[54:21.420 -> 54:31.020] squirrely moments in the race, um, but I think or in the weekend I should say but in the race, maybe he gets it together. I don't know
[54:32.620 -> 54:39.880] But again, I I think I need to remove that from my mind and think just look at the numbers what does the number say so
[54:41.640 -> 54:43.080] Sure
[54:43.080 -> 54:51.040] Albon better yeah, Joe said the only thing I don't like about the 17 is I like the hooks
[54:51.040 -> 54:54.800] in these for sure. It would be nice, but.
[54:54.800 -> 55:02.180] Price picks pays out a hook at 1.5. So if Albon hits for me and Joe pushes, price picks
[55:02.180 -> 55:05.760] pays out. Underdog refunds no matter what happens. So
[55:13.120 -> 55:18.000] if Albon loses and Joe lands right on 17, I'll get a refund. If he wins, I'll also get a refund. So yeah, I agree with Cap. Don't play the .0s on here. But yeah, like, so after this,
[55:18.000 -> 55:22.720] I'll be building a couple of different combos, like Broad Test better, Albon better.
[55:24.960 -> 55:25.680] Oh, it's just kind of glitched on me to crash and these guys are going to float up to their finishing positions for free.
[55:25.680 -> 55:26.680] One of them might crash though.
[55:26.680 -> 55:27.680] That's the risk.
[55:27.680 -> 55:30.680] I do like that call out though, man.
[55:30.680 -> 55:34.680] Never really tried to think of it that way as much, but definitely do like that.
[55:34.680 -> 55:35.680] Oh yeah.
[55:35.680 -> 55:37.680] You got some price picks too.
[55:37.680 -> 55:38.680] Yeah.
[55:38.680 -> 55:39.680] I mean, I think that's a good thing.
[55:39.680 -> 55:40.680] I mean, I think that's a good thing.
[55:40.680 -> 55:41.680] I mean, I think that's a good thing.
[55:41.680 -> 55:42.680] I mean, I think that's a good thing.
[55:42.680 -> 55:43.680] I mean, I think that's a good thing.
[55:43.680 -> 55:44.680] I mean, I think that's a good thing.
[55:44.680 -> 55:45.680] I mean, I think that's a good thing. I mean, I think that's a good thing. I mean, I think that's a good thing. I mean, I think that's a good thing. Never really tried to think of it that way as much,
[55:45.680 -> 55:47.280] but definitely do like that.
[55:47.280 -> 55:50.440] Oh yeah, you got some price picks too.
[55:50.440 -> 55:52.480] 13 and a half, that's what Albon was, right?
[55:52.480 -> 55:53.520] Sorry, my brain is.
[55:53.520 -> 55:56.280] 13 and a half there and 11 and a half from Grid Rivals.
[55:57.560 -> 56:02.000] So there you go, there's a bit of, yeah.
[56:02.000 -> 56:05.040] And explain the overtake points so our listeners know. So I think that's a good thing. I think that's a good thing. I think that's a good thing. I think that's a good thing. I think that's a good thing.
[56:05.040 -> 56:05.880] I think that's a good thing.
[56:05.880 -> 56:06.720] I think that's a good thing.
[56:06.720 -> 56:07.560] I think that's a good thing.
[56:07.560 -> 56:08.440] I think that's a good thing.
[56:08.440 -> 56:09.320] I think that's a good thing.
[56:09.320 -> 56:10.200] I think that's a good thing.
[56:10.200 -> 56:11.120] I think that's a good thing.
[56:11.120 -> 56:12.040] I think that's a good thing.
[56:12.040 -> 56:13.040] I think that's a good thing.
[56:13.040 -> 56:14.040] I think that's a good thing.
[56:14.040 -> 56:15.040] I think that's a good thing.
[56:15.040 -> 56:16.040] I think that's a good thing.
[56:16.040 -> 56:17.040] I think that's a good thing.
[56:17.040 -> 56:18.040] I think that's a good thing.
[56:18.040 -> 56:19.040] I think that's a good thing.
[56:19.040 -> 56:20.040] I think that's a good thing.
[56:20.040 -> 56:21.040] I think that's a good thing.
[56:21.040 -> 56:22.040] I think that's a good thing.
[56:22.040 -> 56:23.040] I think that's a good thing.
[56:23.040 -> 56:24.040] I think that's a good thing.
[56:24.040 -> 56:26.660] I think that's a good thing. I think that's a good thing. I think that's a good thing. I think that's a good thing. I think that's a good thing. You see grid rival did better or worse. You just know that 11th or better 11th, 10th, ninth is better.
[56:26.660 -> 56:28.500] And 12th, 13th, 14th is worse.
[56:29.100 -> 56:33.760] These guys will do more or less and make you do the math and, uh,
[56:34.000 -> 56:35.100] hope you screw something up.
[56:35.100 -> 56:38.220] There's been guys in our discord where they'll put less when it's finishing
[56:38.220 -> 56:42.220] position, thinking that they're fading the person, but they're actually backing
[56:42.220 -> 56:48.640] them because less means like first, second, one, two, or three grid position is a smaller number than four or five or six.
[56:48.640 -> 56:53.440] So yeah, something to be aware of. PricePix also doesn't pay out as much as other pick maps. They
[56:53.440 -> 56:57.360] don't have to, they're the market leader, but Overtake Points is simply your starting position,
[56:57.920 -> 57:01.920] sorry, your finishing position minus your starting position or the other way around.
[57:03.600 -> 57:07.360] So if he finishes 12th and he started 14th, it's a starting
[57:07.360 -> 57:09.200] position minus his finishing position.
[57:09.600 -> 57:11.840] That would be 2.0 overtake points.
[57:12.400 -> 57:13.620] He would clear this line.
[57:13.680 -> 57:17.620] The other thing is if he's starting in front of his teammate and gets passed
[57:17.620 -> 57:19.040] by his teammate, he loses half a point.
[57:19.040 -> 57:22.040] If he starts behind him and passes him, he gains a half a point.
[57:22.040 -> 57:24.600] So there's a slight danger with these ones.
[57:24.600 -> 57:25.920] So, um, sorry, I'm in the there's a slight danger with these ones. So,
[57:32.320 -> 57:37.280] sorry, I'm in the, I'm in the points, but, uh, Lando Norris, for example, could get a half point bonus for passing Pastry. Pastry can only lose a half point because he's starting in front of Norris.
[57:37.280 -> 57:42.160] It isn't actual live on track overtakes, because that would actually take some effort from the
[57:42.160 -> 57:45.960] bookies to actually watch the race and like go through the FAA documents.
[57:45.960 -> 57:47.440] They're too lazy for that.
[57:47.440 -> 57:50.680] So if you're actually thinking like Norris can definitely pass five people in
[57:50.680 -> 57:52.880] that rate in this race, it's totally free.
[57:52.880 -> 57:54.360] He's, he's fine at overtaking.
[57:54.360 -> 57:55.880] I mean, science is great at it.
[57:55.880 -> 57:58.320] You'll have fresh tires at the start of the race.
[57:58.320 -> 58:01.760] That's not how they tally it, unfortunately, but an app like grid
[58:01.760 -> 58:04.120] rival in the future, we'll have stuff like that.
[58:04.120 -> 58:07.340] How many on-track overtakes will you see from this driver in this race?
[58:07.340 -> 58:10.220] Like that's, that's actually fun for motor sports fans, right?
[58:10.220 -> 58:13.780] They can predict that stuff, but, um, unfortunately we take what we can get with
[58:13.780 -> 58:15.580] these kind of all sports, pick them apps.
[58:15.580 -> 58:19.340] And, uh, as Capra mentioned earlier, there's only so many options.
[58:19.340 -> 58:21.700] We only have five here, another five years.
[58:21.700 -> 58:23.100] So we've got 10, we've got half the grid.
[58:24.260 -> 58:24.620] Yeah.
[58:24.700 -> 58:26.240] Probably won't do any, to be honest with you,
[58:26.240 -> 58:30.640] I probably won't even touch price picks for this weekend. Um,
[58:31.600 -> 58:35.760] I'm going to stick to the ones that are giving me options like grid rivals.
[58:36.240 -> 58:40.160] I'll probably do maybe one underdog. We'll see. Um,
[58:40.960 -> 58:41.800] honestly my,
[58:41.920 -> 58:47.560] I've had more success with grid rivals than the other two this year, for sure.
[58:47.560 -> 58:54.320] It's been very, very, very hit or miss with price picks with F1.
[58:54.320 -> 58:59.160] Same with underdog I would even say, and in grid rivals has been solid.
[58:59.160 -> 59:00.160] Solid for me.
[59:00.160 -> 59:01.160] Awesome.
[59:01.160 -> 59:02.160] Yeah.
[59:02.160 -> 59:03.160] Yeah.
[59:03.160 -> 59:04.160] These pickums are a grind for sure.
[59:04.160 -> 59:08.260] You can you're losing better, but sorry, you can be a losing player
[59:08.260 -> 59:12.140] like record wise, pretty much all pick and players are, but still be in profit.
[59:13.100 -> 59:17.260] You're dealing with five five pick tickets that pay out 20 times.
[59:17.260 -> 59:19.680] So you just have to be right more than one in 20 times.
[59:20.300 -> 59:23.600] So you're on a 10 game, 10 game losing streak and you win the 11th one.
[59:24.100 -> 59:25.360] You're a profitable pick and player.
[59:25.400 -> 59:27.640] So don't get too discouraged or down on yourself.
[59:27.640 -> 59:31.760] That's how they get you is, is by the losing, but, uh, there's money to be made
[59:31.760 -> 59:36.120] here, especially these apps specifically underdog and prize picks, they don't
[59:36.120 -> 59:39.600] have dedicated F1 guys, they have, they have guys that make lines for motor
[59:39.600 -> 59:41.040] sports and half a dozen other things.
[59:41.520 -> 59:44.900] If it's 15 minutes for the race and you hear a driver is taking a grid penalty,
[59:44.900 -> 59:48.820] or he's starting on hards and everybody else is starting on softs, like you can.
[59:49.520 -> 59:53.040] Hop on here, find like three or four pairs and just absolutely load up on the guy.
[59:53.040 -> 59:54.440] That's where we make our most money.
[59:54.480 -> 59:58.280] So, uh, or if last second, it's going to rain, that's when you want to go to
[59:58.280 -> 01:00:02.920] pit stop overs and back grid unders and, uh, yeah, all those, all those variants
[01:00:02.920 -> 01:00:05.060] angles, that's, that's how we can beat the bookies,
[01:00:05.060 -> 01:00:08.180] is on the news and on beating them to the line
[01:00:08.180 -> 01:00:09.620] when they're slow.
[01:00:09.620 -> 01:00:11.100] Now, I was just going to say quickly,
[01:00:11.100 -> 01:00:14.140] Russell is at 3.0 equivalent on here.
[01:00:14.140 -> 01:00:15.020] So you have to translate.
[01:00:15.020 -> 01:00:15.940] He's at 3.0.
[01:00:15.940 -> 01:00:17.980] I think everyone else is at the same.
[01:00:17.980 -> 01:00:20.340] Gasly is at 10.0.
[01:00:21.300 -> 01:00:22.660] So don't play Gasly on here,
[01:00:22.660 -> 01:00:24.440] play him on underdog or prize picks
[01:00:24.440 -> 01:00:26.280] if you want to back them or fade them.
[01:00:26.280 -> 01:00:28.800] Alonzo eight and a half is five and a half.
[01:00:28.800 -> 01:00:30.480] That one's pretty consistent.
[01:00:30.480 -> 01:00:32.640] And then the overtakes just quickly.
[01:00:32.640 -> 01:00:34.480] Oops, sorry.
[01:00:34.480 -> 01:00:38.920] I seriously hate that they do that at one point.
[01:00:38.920 -> 01:00:45.800] Yeah, it's kind of fun because it matches up with the actual points that drivers pay out. Yeah, I get it. I get it.
[01:00:45.800 -> 01:00:47.320] But yeah, that's actually worth noting.
[01:00:47.320 -> 01:00:49.800] They do pay out the fastest lap point too on PricePick.
[01:00:49.800 -> 01:00:54.280] So if you fade a guy and he gets fastest lap and you lose, that's why.
[01:00:54.280 -> 01:00:57.200] PSG four and a half.
[01:00:57.200 -> 01:00:59.520] Norris is four and a half too.
[01:00:59.520 -> 01:01:00.520] That's interesting.
[01:01:00.520 -> 01:01:02.760] What was Norris on the other apps?
[01:01:02.760 -> 01:01:03.760] Four and a half.
[01:01:03.760 -> 01:01:04.760] Okay.
[01:01:04.760 -> 01:01:06.000] Or well. Science 7.0. I? 4.5. Or well...
[01:01:06.000 -> 01:01:08.000] 7.0.
[01:01:08.000 -> 01:01:10.000] Yeah.
[01:01:10.000 -> 01:01:12.000] 4.5.
[01:01:12.000 -> 01:01:14.000] I want 12.5 right in the middle.
[01:01:14.000 -> 01:01:16.000] You want to talk pit stops and then call it a night?
[01:01:16.000 -> 01:01:18.000] Yeah, get to the pits man.
[01:01:18.000 -> 01:01:20.000] That's probably one I will play.
[01:01:20.000 -> 01:01:22.000] Yeah, it's actually...
[01:01:22.000 -> 01:01:24.000] They did bump a couple on us.
[01:01:24.000 -> 01:01:26.040] They haven't bumped them much.
[01:01:26.120 -> 01:01:28.840] Um, but they must've got enough action that they went for it.
[01:01:29.960 -> 01:01:31.120] So this is live.
[01:01:31.600 -> 01:01:34.320] This is our, our sheet tracking all season.
[01:01:34.360 -> 01:01:37.120] And also, uh, this is last season as well.
[01:01:37.680 -> 01:01:38.380] They didn't race here.
[01:01:38.380 -> 01:01:42.360] So not totally relevant this weekend in general, though, in the
[01:01:42.360 -> 01:01:43.760] middle East, the tires are hot.
[01:01:44.040 -> 01:01:48.040] Um, that won't necessarily be the case because they're, they're
[01:01:48.040 -> 01:01:49.120] going to have to pit three times.
[01:01:49.120 -> 01:01:51.380] So the tires won't be as hot, but in general, when the tires are hotter,
[01:01:51.380 -> 01:01:52.820] the gunners have a harder time getting them off.
[01:01:52.820 -> 01:01:55.480] So you might gain a slight edge, or if it's raining, the tires are slippery.
[01:01:55.480 -> 01:01:58.080] They have to use those big wet tires, which are heavier.
[01:01:58.400 -> 01:02:00.760] They almost always go over tomorrow.
[01:02:00.760 -> 01:02:01.360] We're in the desert.
[01:02:01.400 -> 01:02:02.020] It ain't raining.
[01:02:02.440 -> 01:02:06.400] Um, overs have a slight advantage on the season,
[01:02:06.400 -> 01:02:09.600] 54.5% to 44.5%.
[01:02:09.600 -> 01:02:13.300] And then there's also, if you play overs,
[01:02:13.300 -> 01:02:16.800] there's a 15% chance that it'll be a botched pit stop
[01:02:16.800 -> 01:02:18.100] that goes over 5 seconds.
[01:02:18.100 -> 01:02:22.900] So in general, play the overs on price picks, pit stops.
[01:02:22.900 -> 01:02:26.240] There's just more outs for overs in general.
[01:02:26.440 -> 01:02:27.400] The host knows it.
[01:02:27.400 -> 01:02:28.700] Everybody likes to back people.
[01:02:28.700 -> 01:02:30.860] Nobody likes to play on her under his life is too short for
[01:02:30.860 -> 01:02:31.980] unders or whatever they say.
[01:02:32.520 -> 01:02:36.920] Um, but don't be afraid to, to, to fade your driver in this case, like,
[01:02:36.960 -> 01:02:39.360] like over and under is reverse, but you know what I mean?
[01:02:39.580 -> 01:02:40.560] Don't be afraid to fade a guy.
[01:02:41.120 -> 01:02:46.180] Um, but yeah, the one driver that, that is looking good is Sonoda.
[01:02:46.180 -> 01:02:50.360] He's at 2.85 and, uh, he's been crushing it 2.4.
[01:02:50.740 -> 01:02:53.380] He hasn't even made it to first pit the two races prior to that.
[01:02:53.760 -> 01:02:57.860] Um, but the other indicator we look at is the other teammate and a Lawson has
[01:02:57.860 -> 01:03:02.200] been spanking the pits since he's, he's come into formula one.
[01:03:02.200 -> 01:03:04.400] I think some of these are Daniel Ricardo's too, but in general,
[01:03:04.400 -> 01:03:05.320] his team.
[01:03:06.240 -> 01:03:06.280] Is doing great.
[01:03:09.280 -> 01:03:10.080] So, um, Sonoda's line still has value at it. 2.85.
[01:03:10.080 -> 01:03:11.360] That's the only one we're on.
[01:03:12.720 -> 01:03:14.800] Ocon's was looking good at 2.65.
[01:03:14.800 -> 01:03:16.440] They bumped it up to 2.7.
[01:03:17.080 -> 01:03:18.520] So I just want to see what that does.
[01:03:18.520 -> 01:03:22.000] All of a sudden he's only been over one in once in the last three
[01:03:22.000 -> 01:03:23.680] races and twice in the last five.
[01:03:23.680 -> 01:03:25.320] So we'll stay away from that one for now.
[01:03:25.980 -> 01:03:27.580] Uh, Max or Stappen.
[01:03:27.740 -> 01:03:29.480] So something happened to Red Bull.
[01:03:30.960 -> 01:03:32.960] Cause they were fire at the start of the year.
[01:03:32.960 -> 01:03:36.940] Look at all these blues, 2.1, 2.3, 2.2.
[01:03:36.940 -> 01:03:42.180] They have the only 1.9 on the season, but look at the last six, seven races.
[01:03:42.720 -> 01:03:44.260] I don't know if it's because Max has been so dominant.
[01:03:44.260 -> 01:03:45.300] They just take their time. They slow down a bit, but, seven races. I don't know if it's because Max has been so dominant. They just take their time.
[01:03:45.300 -> 01:03:49.140] They slow down a bit, but, uh, Max specifically hasn't gone under this line
[01:03:49.140 -> 01:03:52.720] in the last five races and he's only gone under it once in the last seven.
[01:03:53.100 -> 01:03:57.640] So you can really see the trend drop off from kind of mid start season.
[01:03:57.640 -> 01:04:01.120] Look at all these blues, the last few races, check was falling off too.
[01:04:01.120 -> 01:04:03.400] He hasn't been under 2.3 in a while.
[01:04:03.680 -> 01:04:06.420] These big, long pit stops usually are from front wing damage, which
[01:04:07.260 -> 01:04:09.360] you might recall, yeah, he did a bit of that in Japan.
[01:04:09.360 -> 01:04:10.560] He's driving bumper cars.
[01:04:10.980 -> 01:04:13.540] So Max Verstappen over is the other one.
[01:04:13.560 -> 01:04:17.340] And then, um, I guess it's a goat fade special.
[01:04:17.340 -> 01:04:18.620] You fade Max Verstappen.
[01:04:19.220 -> 01:04:21.140] You fade Lewis Hamilton.
[01:04:21.220 -> 01:04:23.140] He's a 2.85.
[01:04:23.880 -> 01:04:24.700] You can see here.
[01:04:24.720 -> 01:04:27.000] Yes, he's gone under three of the last five.
[01:04:27.440 -> 01:04:32.720] Um, but the trend line shows us that they don't go under 2.85 very often.
[01:04:32.800 -> 01:04:37.520] Like they, their range, I should say, as she's talking means versus mediums,
[01:04:38.200 -> 01:04:41.200] uh, median, excuse me, 2.76 is their bottom.
[01:04:41.280 -> 01:04:46.560] And their top is more like 3.2, 3.22, 3.18 type range.
[01:04:46.560 -> 01:04:48.480] And that's consistent with Russell as well.
[01:04:48.480 -> 01:04:52.320] So it looks like he'll probably go over on his first pit stop.
[01:04:52.320 -> 01:04:55.200] So those are my, my, uh, pit stops.
[01:04:55.200 -> 01:04:58.720] We were going to do Ocon, but they bumped it on us.
[01:04:58.720 -> 01:04:59.840] So we'll do Max.
[01:05:02.000 -> 01:05:03.440] My computer is glitching.
[01:05:03.440 -> 01:05:05.000] Max, where's Yuki?
[01:05:06.440 -> 01:05:09.760] Not fading the goat Yuki, just the other goats.
[01:05:09.760 -> 01:05:13.460] Louis, those were the two I said, right?
[01:05:14.320 -> 01:05:15.160] Yep.
[01:05:16.040 -> 01:05:18.120] I think we were looking at Lance Stroll too,
[01:05:18.120 -> 01:05:22.120] but he, I'll show you that one very quickly just to wrap up.
[01:05:24.180 -> 01:05:29.320] Yeah, Lance Stroll, I was on his over last time, he cooked me at 2.47, but in general, just
[01:05:29.320 -> 01:05:31.980] got you, that team is fading as well.
[01:05:32.480 -> 01:05:34.460] Um, but who knows?
[01:05:34.600 -> 01:05:37.460] I'm I try, I try to keep the narratives out of the pit stops.
[01:05:37.460 -> 01:05:39.440] Like, Oh, this guy's looking for revenge.
[01:05:39.440 -> 01:05:41.320] He's going to get his pit stop under this time.
[01:05:41.320 -> 01:05:43.480] Let's let's back his under on pit stops.
[01:05:43.480 -> 01:05:45.160] Like it doesn't work like that. Like every driver wants to win. Every pit crew wants this time. Let's let's back is under on pit stops. Like it doesn't work like that.
[01:05:45.160 -> 01:05:46.200] Like every driver wants to win.
[01:05:46.200 -> 01:05:50.320] Every pit crew wants to show well, um, just, just keep the
[01:05:50.320 -> 01:05:51.560] human motivation out of it.
[01:05:51.560 -> 01:05:54.680] This late in the season, all the pit crew are trying to do a good job because
[01:05:54.680 -> 01:05:57.240] they know it's contract renewal season for them for next year.
[01:05:57.240 -> 01:05:58.240] It's basically their tryout.
[01:05:58.240 -> 01:05:59.600] So all eyes are on them.
[01:05:59.600 -> 01:06:01.120] Just assume they're going to try to do their best.
[01:06:01.120 -> 01:06:03.080] Don't don't think just cause last roll had a bad qualifying.
[01:06:03.080 -> 01:06:05.260] He's going to have a good pit stop or a bad pit stop.
[01:06:05.260 -> 01:06:08.540] He's not like driver performance on track stays out of it.
[01:06:09.000 -> 01:06:11.580] What you want to look for is trends when they show up in that pit box.
[01:06:11.580 -> 01:06:12.420] Are they a good PR?
[01:06:12.460 -> 01:06:13.260] Are they good at parking?
[01:06:13.260 -> 01:06:15.260] The tire Paris is very, very good at it.
[01:06:15.720 -> 01:06:19.420] Uh, it's really the only thing he's better than, than, uh, Max was tapping at.
[01:06:19.780 -> 01:06:22.700] The other guy who was very good at it was, uh, Daniel Ricardo
[01:06:23.180 -> 01:06:24.180] that showed up last year.
[01:06:24.180 -> 01:06:29.400] He had a lot, he had a lot of good pit stops, 2.4, 2.3, 2.2.
[01:06:29.400 -> 01:06:32.160] He had a couple of fastest ones for the season.
[01:06:32.360 -> 01:06:35.080] That's our entire list for the season.
[01:06:35.080 -> 01:06:36.280] That's how we pull our averages.
[01:06:37.240 -> 01:06:38.560] No, but obviously Ricardo was in here.
[01:06:38.560 -> 01:06:42.180] So Lawson in his place has done a great job, but they nerfed his line on us.
[01:06:42.180 -> 01:06:43.780] He's down to like 2.6 already.
[01:06:44.420 -> 01:06:45.320] So there you have it. There's your three pit stops. If you need a fourth, you can rollfed his line on us. He's down to like 2.6 already. So there you have it.
[01:06:45.320 -> 01:06:46.140] There's your three pit stops.
[01:06:46.140 -> 01:06:49.080] If you need a fourth, you can roll the dice on that stroll,
[01:06:49.080 -> 01:06:50.720] but that's my plate.
[01:06:50.720 -> 01:06:52.800] And unless you're doing a five pick,
[01:06:52.800 -> 01:06:53.800] always stick to powers.
[01:06:53.800 -> 01:06:56.680] The flex payout 2.25 is just an absolute joke.
[01:06:56.680 -> 01:06:58.360] So stick to the three.
[01:07:00.360 -> 01:07:01.200] Let's do it.
[01:07:01.200 -> 01:07:02.020] So that one's booked.
[01:07:02.020 -> 01:07:02.860] Let's have some fun.
[01:07:02.860 -> 01:07:05.560] Let's win some money back tomorrow from the bookies. I
[01:07:12.260 -> 01:07:13.240] Like it. Hopefully we'll see I like that tomorrow is at noon. So there could be more again if you're listening
[01:07:17.080 -> 01:07:23.580] Just get in the discord. We're both in there. We'll be in there all morning I mean, it's kind of nice that we don't have to just get up and right then is is the race but
[01:07:24.200 -> 01:07:26.000] One quick announcement, we are going
[01:07:26.000 -> 01:07:33.040] to be at the Austin Grand Prix. So you'll get to meet lights and myself. We'll be wandering
[01:07:33.040 -> 01:07:36.800] around. We'll actually be hanging out with a bunch of partners actually that are going
[01:07:36.800 -> 01:07:44.880] to be there. Grid rival being one of them. So come and find us Thursday through Sunday.
[01:07:44.880 -> 01:07:45.520] Basically we'll be
[01:07:45.520 -> 01:07:46.700] through be there throughout the week.
[01:07:46.700 -> 01:07:50.200] And actually, uh, lights will be getting in on Friday, but I
[01:07:50.200 -> 01:07:51.160] will be there on Thursday.
[01:07:51.160 -> 01:07:53.440] So, um, again, hit us up.
[01:07:53.440 -> 01:07:57.000] If you want to come say hi, you want to talk some lines, you want to talk
[01:07:57.000 -> 01:08:01.220] just F1, or you just want to talk Austin, Texas, doesn't matter.
[01:08:01.240 -> 01:08:01.760] We'll be there.
[01:08:01.900 -> 01:08:05.560] So, um, yeah, any last words, man?
[01:08:05.560 -> 01:08:07.320] Yeah, huge, huge shout out for Good Rival
[01:08:07.320 -> 01:08:08.480] for partnering with us on that.
[01:08:08.480 -> 01:08:11.360] We're excited to hang out with those guys in Austin.
[01:08:11.360 -> 01:08:14.320] We plan to do some features all weekend long.
[01:08:14.320 -> 01:08:17.040] Lots of content coming out when we're live there.
[01:08:17.040 -> 01:08:18.720] Interview a few people that we meet up with
[01:08:18.720 -> 01:08:19.920] and do some various features.
[01:08:19.920 -> 01:08:21.000] Obviously I'll be in Texas,
[01:08:21.000 -> 01:08:22.400] so I can't even play on Sportsbook.
[01:08:22.400 -> 01:08:25.320] So I'll be dialed in on the pickups apps.
[01:08:29.080 -> 01:08:29.240] Yep. You, he will live my life. Although there are ways around with the,
[01:08:34.040 -> 01:08:34.080] with the bookies, I'll try to help you with. Uh, but anyways, it's been fun, man.
[01:08:38.640 -> 01:08:39.040] I can't wait. This is something that we had talked about continuing to do.
[01:08:42.600 -> 01:08:43.600] And now that we have grid rival on board, we want to keep pushing this thing.
[01:08:50.000 -> 01:08:53.000] Um, and obviously me, I'm just sold on what they've had as a product and they've sold me on it. And yeah, I keep playing it, man. It's a great app.
[01:08:53.000 -> 01:08:58.000] It's the first app I load every week, outside of betting, of course.
[01:08:58.000 -> 01:09:02.000] But no, pleasure. We'll see you tomorrow.
[01:09:02.000 -> 01:09:04.000] Not bright and early.
[01:09:04.000 -> 01:09:06.000] It's going to be awesome. It's very good to sleep in. We'll actually get an afternoon Not bright and early. It's going to be awesome.
[01:09:06.000 -> 01:09:08.000] We'll actually get an afternoon one.
[01:09:08.000 -> 01:09:10.000] Alright guys.
[01:09:10.000 -> 01:09:12.000] See you in the Discord. Thanks man.