F1 Money Gang Singapore GP Ep. 4

Early trends/insights for Singapore GP. Underdog Fantasy Promo Code F1MONEYGANG and Free Discord: http://discord.gg/nT4wb3ayHU

In the upcoming Singapore Grand Prix, Mercedes' performance is highly anticipated due to its strong reliability record. Despite not having the fastest power unit this season, Mercedes has demonstrated exceptional consistency, with both Lewis Hamilton and George Russell finishing every race in the points except for two incidents caused by accidents. This reliability advantage could prove crucial in Singapore, a demanding street circuit known for its unforgiving walls and high probability of safety cars.

Moreover, Mercedes is currently trailing Ferrari by 38 points in the constructors' standings, providing an additional incentive for the team to push for every available point. With six races remaining, a strong performance in Singapore could significantly impact the outcome of the constructors' championship.

As a result, some bettors see value in backing Mercedes for various outcomes, such as both Hamilton and Russell finishing in the points, or even a podium finish for either driver. While there is always the risk of unforeseen circumstances in Formula One, Mercedes' reliability and determination make it an attractive betting proposition in Singapore.

# Singapore Grand Prix Insights and Predictions

The podcast begins with a discussion on the upcoming Singapore Grand Prix, with the hosts providing their early trends and insights for the race.

## Mercedes' Podium Chances

The hosts debate the possibility of Mercedes stealing a podium spot in Singapore, considering their historical success at the track. Despite their recent struggles, they believe that the team will have their act together and be competitive in Singapore. George Russell is mentioned as a potential podium finisher, while Lewis Hamilton's chances are also discussed.

## Max Verstappen's Title Chances

The conversation then shifts to Max Verstappen's title chances, with the hosts analyzing the scenarios under which he could secure the championship in Singapore or Japan. They highlight the importance of a strong result in Singapore for Red Bull, as they would prefer to win the title in Japan due to their partnership with Honda. This could potentially lead to a more conservative approach in Singapore, which could benefit Charles Leclerc's chances of winning the race.

## Underdog Fantasy Promotion and Discord

The hosts remind listeners about the Underdog Fantasy promo code "F1MoneyGang" and their Discord server, encouraging fans to join and engage with the community.

## Final Thoughts and Predictions

The podcast concludes with the hosts sharing their final thoughts and predictions for the Singapore Grand Prix. They reiterate their belief in Leclerc's chances of winning the race and express their excitement for the upcoming event.

[00:00.000 -> 00:05.000] And we are back for episode four of the F1 Money Gang pod.
[00:10.000 -> 00:14.240] This is sponsored by Underdog. F1 Money Gang is the promo code.
[00:14.280 -> 00:18.360] Please use that code. You get a hundred percent match on your deposit.
[00:18.360 -> 00:22.480] If you use it again, F1 Money Gang is the promo code.
[00:23.120 -> 00:25.040] And I just want to dive right into it guys.
[00:25.040 -> 00:25.840] It's been a while.
[00:25.880 -> 00:29.420] It feels like forever since we seen an F one race, even though it's
[00:29.420 -> 00:30.840] been what, like a week and a half.
[00:31.320 -> 00:35.120] But to kick things off, I think jinx is going to give us a recap of what
[00:35.120 -> 00:36.440] happened since it's been a while.
[00:36.480 -> 00:38.220] Even myself, I forgot what happened.
[00:38.220 -> 00:41.480] So jinx, what, what happened in that Monza race?
[00:42.020 -> 00:47.580] I mean, much of the same, uh, verse happened, took a grid penalty at the start took a five-place grid penalty
[00:47.580 -> 00:53.500] So I think he started six the whole grid was jumbled up. We had signs Hamilton Perez
[00:54.880 -> 00:55.900] bodice
[00:55.900 -> 00:57.900] Mick Schumacher took a gearbox
[00:58.500 -> 01:02.020] Magnuson, I mean there was quite a few other things or seven or eight guys at the back
[01:02.020 -> 01:05.280] I know uh, Akon took I I think a five place grid penalty too.
[01:05.280 -> 01:08.800] So, well, a jumbled start, um, LeClaire started on pole.
[01:09.600 -> 01:14.640] Uh, there was a safety car after about, I think 10 laps when Vettel, uh, blew up.
[01:15.400 -> 01:19.680] And then that brought in the VFC LeClaire as usual for already
[01:19.680 -> 01:21.160] just pulled their master strategy.
[01:21.160 -> 01:24.840] They stayed out, ended up not working out in their favor.
[01:24.840 -> 01:28.560] And for step and basically had the race on cruise control to a late safety car
[01:28.560 -> 01:29.680] came out for Ricardo.
[01:30.240 -> 01:31.920] We've been having a terrible season.
[01:32.800 -> 01:35.040] He was running in the points and then he ended up blowing up.
[01:35.440 -> 01:38.960] So we had her step and taken at home, LeClaire second, and then George Russell
[01:38.960 -> 01:43.040] again for the fourth out of fifth race, sitting on the podium, uh, signs coming
[01:43.040 -> 01:46.600] from the back, finished fourth, Hamilton in fifth, and then rounding out six was Perez.
[01:47.200 -> 01:48.200] I'm looking at the points.
[01:48.200 -> 01:48.840] Pretty interesting.
[01:48.840 -> 01:54.320] Nick DeVries was in ninth, started in the points position and had a very quiet weekend.
[01:54.900 -> 01:59.560] Uh, you know, had a great, great run Saturday for the emergency sub
[01:59.560 -> 02:01.920] of Alex Alvan who had appendicitis.
[02:03.040 -> 02:06.160] And then, you know, just, I mean, basically a great race for a
[02:06.160 -> 02:10.000] rookie. I mean, points in your first ever start, you know, you can't really complain there.
[02:10.000 -> 02:16.000] But we know that Latifi is sweating right now, that's for sure. Or he's probably already on
[02:16.720 -> 02:22.960] LinkedIn looking for a new job. We know that. So that was just, I got to say,
[02:22.960 -> 02:25.240] I was actually very impressed with this performance.
[02:25.240 -> 02:26.640] I did not expect that.
[02:26.640 -> 02:31.120] But yeah, Monza definitely was interesting.
[02:31.120 -> 02:38.960] Obviously, before we had the grid penalties that kind of played into a lot of my mistakes
[02:38.960 -> 02:42.240] as it came to betting, what was it, FP2.
[02:42.240 -> 02:48.560] I think, I don't know, guys, I kind of struggled with FPs.
[02:48.680 -> 02:50.880] I think the FP one was my only winners.
[02:50.880 -> 02:54.640] And then after that, I can, I can get any, I didn't even bet anything for FP three.
[02:55.320 -> 02:59.520] And that was just not a beautiful one for me.
[02:59.560 -> 03:00.840] Like stroll Vettel.
[03:01.520 -> 03:02.920] I stroll has been hitting.
[03:03.480 -> 03:07.320] Well, I don't know, past four races, uh, over Vettel and FP two.
[03:07.480 -> 03:08.400] I lost that one.
[03:08.940 -> 03:12.680] Well, the interesting thing about stroll is, is he went, he went slower
[03:12.680 -> 03:15.720] in FP two and FP three than he did in FP one.
[03:16.020 -> 03:21.760] Well, so in general, Aston Martin, just, just, I, what did I say last week?
[03:21.760 -> 03:23.780] I said, Hey, let's, let's put them on watch.
[03:23.780 -> 03:24.580] They were looking better.
[03:24.580 -> 03:29.860] They were looking faster and they just looked awful that let me just put that
[03:29.860 -> 03:34.180] as that's where I was wrong was Aston Martin was bad.
[03:34.580 -> 03:37.040] I mean, we expected Seb to be where he was.
[03:37.040 -> 03:39.620] I mean, it's not like he dominated stroll.
[03:39.620 -> 03:42.100] I mean, he beat him in qualifying and in.
[03:42.540 -> 03:44.100] FP three FP two.
[03:44.100 -> 03:47.760] I mean, he was running 17th, so just terrible weekend by stroll.
[03:48.240 -> 03:49.480] Yeah, no, absolutely.
[03:49.480 -> 03:53.640] I know, uh, I know that we had some successes from other, from the other guys here.
[03:54.200 -> 04:00.560] I know, uh, what lights you seem to, you had some, some good hits there last on the last race.
[04:03.120 -> 04:06.540] Yeah, it, uh, it was interesting cause I was busy all day Saturday.
[04:06.540 -> 04:11.220] So I didn't have a chance to overthink it and, um, like make, make a bunch of
[04:11.880 -> 04:17.140] bets, like on possible good penalties and like, it was just such a muddled mess.
[04:17.140 -> 04:20.940] And, and, um, I think everybody was trying to lean into some of that on
[04:20.940 -> 04:23.420] Saturday and it didn't necessarily play out.
[04:24.000 -> 04:27.200] Um, so all my stuff that I booked earlier in the week ended up hitting.
[04:27.320 -> 04:30.100] And, uh, then when I looked later that night, you know, just a couple
[04:30.100 -> 04:31.500] of simple ones and they all seem to hit.
[04:32.060 -> 04:35.340] Uh, I definitely got absolutely dumped in FP2.
[04:35.900 -> 04:40.220] If I recall, uh, for everyone, FP1, but it was only because Norris
[04:40.260 -> 04:42.180] screwed up Max's hot lap.
[04:42.180 -> 04:44.500] Otherwise Max would have like cakewalked FP1.
[04:44.500 -> 04:49.180] So then we all, we knew him on FP2 and, um, it didn't end up happening.
[04:49.180 -> 04:53.400] We've said all along back Ferrari on Fridays and then usually FP three, uh,
[04:53.400 -> 04:56.880] red bulls in, in like race form and they dominate that one and that's what
[04:56.880 -> 04:59.240] ended up happening on FP three, not FP two.
[04:59.240 -> 05:05.040] So I gotta give a shout out to Tom, the man, because it felt like.
[05:08.560 -> 05:12.160] As a crew, we made good bets in FP2, but it just didn't work out. And like, it was based on trends and data, so you can't be too mad at yourself,
[05:12.160 -> 05:16.000] but as a better, you got to have the courage to come back to a bet,
[05:16.000 -> 05:17.360] you know, the following session.
[05:17.360 -> 05:22.720] And so I ended up just running the exact same bets for FP3 and two out of the three of them
[05:22.720 -> 05:27.140] hit. So FP3 was profitable. FP one was profitable, just not FP two.
[05:27.240 -> 05:30.220] And then obviously carrying over into qualifying and race day.
[05:30.700 -> 05:34.720] Um, yeah, I had similar success, you know, anytime the race favorite wins the race.
[05:34.720 -> 05:38.100] It's not going to be like a hugely profitable day, but, uh, getting some
[05:38.100 -> 05:42.780] of those nice ones, like degrees points was a good one, or, um, I'm just
[05:42.780 -> 05:49.360] kind of recapping on the fly here, bought tasks over Latifi for the money gang community pick.
[05:49.360 -> 05:52.440] I mean, it might be a canary in the coal mine for both tasks,
[05:52.440 -> 05:55.600] his career that he's getting paired against Latifi, but we're going
[05:55.600 -> 05:56.720] to take that all day long.
[05:57.120 -> 06:00.200] I mean, that's a potential line of the year right there, potentially.
[06:00.480 -> 06:00.960] Yeah.
[06:01.240 -> 06:07.280] Or how about, how about, uh, how about the podium order that we, we actually placed the
[06:07.280 -> 06:08.780] LeClaire Russell and Verstappen.
[06:08.780 -> 06:10.360] We placed that really early too.
[06:10.360 -> 06:13.560] And that, that ended up being a awesome bet.
[06:13.560 -> 06:19.440] I mean, compared to the trash stuff I already had, but that kind of saved me a little bit.
[06:19.440 -> 06:23.960] The plus 400 LeClaire Russell and Verstappen.
[06:23.960 -> 06:27.280] I should have put, I should have put like two or three units on that.
[06:27.640 -> 06:33.860] That was, that was, that felt too easy, but, um, yeah, no, it definitely was
[06:33.900 -> 06:35.900] very interesting going into the race.
[06:35.980 -> 06:38.800] I think a lot of different things played in hand.
[06:38.800 -> 06:43.140] I know we were talking about that in the discord too, was, uh, I mean,
[06:43.160 -> 06:46.320] Yuki looked solid in every session, but
[06:46.320 -> 06:48.760] just didn't hit his head to head.
[06:49.380 -> 06:52.780] And we learned because he was running softs.
[06:52.840 -> 06:56.880] The entire first, uh, FP one did not run softs FP two.
[06:57.060 -> 07:02.460] These are things that we want to try to track, you know, make sure that as we're
[07:02.460 -> 07:05.760] watching FP one, if the tires are not
[07:05.760 -> 07:11.240] lining up for them to maximize their win against their, their partner in FP two,
[07:11.260 -> 07:12.540] that's the one you want to take.
[07:13.320 -> 07:17.400] So there's, there's a lot of learnings in this, uh, for, for free practices.
[07:17.400 -> 07:22.080] So, yeah, it's, uh, it was a fun race, so I'm for sure.
[07:22.860 -> 07:26.040] Um, but yeah, what about, uh, Delseto and, and renegade?
[07:26.040 -> 07:27.440] What, what about, what about you guys?
[07:27.440 -> 07:28.820] How did you feel about that race?
[07:31.040 -> 07:37.960] It wasn't a great race weekend and the race results, uh, were not great for me.
[07:38.240 -> 07:42.240] Um, I had double Alpine points and there was something off
[07:42.240 -> 07:44.900] with Alpine during the, the, the race.
[07:44.920 -> 07:47.760] We saw Alonso retire because of
[07:47.760 -> 07:57.200] the ERS issue and Ocon was nowhere. I think he had a grid five place grid penalty
[07:58.400 -> 08:07.040] and for most of the race he was five seconds behind Joe and he was being held up by the Williams so it was
[08:07.040 -> 08:14.720] surprising that he couldn't catch up so he might have had the same issue as well so there was
[08:14.720 -> 08:25.920] something off about Albin and also Perez I had Perez in a group bet, but that would have won, but he got a punch on his heart.
[08:25.920 -> 08:30.920] So unfortunately he had to pit again and finish behind Hamilton.
[08:30.920 -> 08:38.560] Yeah, actually that one I struggled with too because I think I had, I'm trying to check
[08:38.560 -> 08:39.560] right now.
[08:39.560 -> 08:46.320] I think I had Perez over Hamilton and I just, that guy, he just, he continues to, to fuck me on bets.
[08:46.320 -> 08:50.120] Excuse my French to anyone out there, but yeah,
[08:50.120 -> 08:52.320] I had Perez over Hamilton and that was,
[08:52.320 -> 08:54.320] glad I didn't put more than,
[08:54.320 -> 08:58.000] I think I put 75.75 units on that.
[08:58.000 -> 08:59.600] I didn't even do a full two,
[08:59.600 -> 09:02.320] but definitely was not fun watching that.
[09:04.080 -> 09:05.360] And I was on the Alpine top 10.
[09:05.440 -> 09:08.120] I feel like I play that every week and I probably will
[09:08.120 -> 09:09.480] continue to play that every week.
[09:10.840 -> 09:13.320] But you know, some races go for you, some races.
[09:14.200 -> 09:15.040] Yeah.
[09:15.080 -> 09:16.320] And that was interesting.
[09:16.320 -> 09:17.600] You do bring up a good point.
[09:17.600 -> 09:20.640] There was something not right with Alpine that weekend.
[09:20.680 -> 09:24.520] I mean, I know we've seen some data on them and you know, their top
[09:24.520 -> 09:25.120] speed is just kind of varied. that weekend. I mean, I know we've seen some data on them and you know, their top speed
[09:25.120 -> 09:30.300] is just kind of varied on track. You'd see, you'd see like they're hitting it on, on some
[09:30.300 -> 09:35.320] of those long straights, but then, uh, I can, I couldn't tell you what was going on this
[09:35.320 -> 09:40.720] past race on why they were struggling. Same thing. I just could not read Aston Martin
[09:40.720 -> 09:45.200] as well. So what's not the proper track for me to read, I guess.
[09:50.880 -> 09:51.680] And it's a very unique track. So yeah, it's not too much to read for the races coming forward.
[09:53.600 -> 09:55.280] Yeah. And what about you, Dulcetto?
[10:25.480 -> 10:26.560] Hey, guys. Well, same for me. I mean, I had a, I went two and one with a fix. I had a very slight to that screwed up that bad. I did have Max to finish sixth or better at the end of the first lap.
[10:26.560 -> 10:29.560] He started at seventh, so I felt like that was
[10:29.560 -> 10:31.400] kind of a gimme, considering it's Max,
[10:31.400 -> 10:33.560] he's a very aggressive driver,
[10:33.560 -> 10:35.600] and he drives the fastest car on the grid,
[10:35.600 -> 10:39.680] so, you know, like, given the odds,
[10:39.680 -> 10:41.560] I just had to play that.
[10:41.560 -> 10:46.720] And then I had my, you know, favorite juicy parlay, you know, the, I had
[10:46.720 -> 10:53.560] the head to head matches. I had a three leg parlay, Gasly to beat Yuki, George to beat
[10:53.560 -> 11:00.280] Louis and Max to beat Sergio Perez. That was an easy one. But overall, I'm glad I almost
[11:00.280 -> 11:08.640] tipped the over 17 and a half because I was like there's nine guys getting new engines or new updates, whatever
[11:09.200 -> 11:13.700] You know, I was like, there's no way these guys are gonna start crushing or you know
[11:13.700 -> 11:17.800] It was a very wide open track and I'm glad I didn't do it because it would have lost
[11:18.520 -> 11:23.600] But I had a pretty good weekend a kind of a dull race if you ask me
[11:24.400 -> 11:26.840] Especially the ending, you know,
[11:26.840 -> 11:30.560] kind of like the last six, seven laps on a safety car.
[11:30.600 -> 11:33.640] I wish it was a Abu Dhabi, you know, let him race.
[11:33.640 -> 11:36.320] It's a right. So but it is what it is.
[11:37.600 -> 11:39.240] Yeah, man, that's right.
[11:39.240 -> 11:42.960] There was some entertainment, but yeah, Monza tends to
[11:44.160 -> 11:48.000] be boring for most of the race, and then something happens to make it interesting.
[11:48.000 -> 12:05.480] But I have to say, I'm happy that there was a safety car because that was, you know, as you know, I shared in the Discord, I was worried about because you know like it's
[12:05.480 -> 12:10.800] not known to have wrecks or you know and oh man I was so happy when that happened
[12:10.800 -> 12:17.320] yeah that is still alive I have six more tracks let's go yellow flags I'm gonna
[12:17.320 -> 12:21.000] have to I'm gonna have to track this every week with you now we're gonna have
[12:21.000 -> 12:29.600] to bring that up but definitely it's an awesome bet. It was plus 6,600. So, so you can't beat those odds.
[12:29.600 -> 12:37.880] Yeah, no, absolutely. Awesome odds. Yeah. Yeah. And Jinx, what about you?
[12:37.880 -> 12:43.880] Yeah, we had a solid weekend. Started good, ended good. Middle wasn't too good. Started
[12:43.880 -> 12:45.560] off, I hit chuck
[12:51.240 -> 12:54.020] Chuck Leclerc a little bit under three to one odds and fp1 figured they would come out strong, you know I felt this, you know, they're out of the constructors and
[12:54.660 -> 13:00.320] Championship both can drivers and constructors championship. So figured Ferrari would throw a Hail Mary and
[13:01.080 -> 13:03.760] Wasn't on speed but still he got fp1
[13:05.500 -> 13:09.000] and wasn't on speed, but still he got Ft one Ft two. I took stroll over Vettel and that didn't hit. I had to know it over Cassie that didn't
[13:09.000 -> 13:13.000] hit qualifying stroll late in egg against Vettel's that didn't hit.
[13:13.000 -> 13:17.900] Um, I had, uh, Joe going you over bodice figured bodice will give
[13:17.900 -> 13:23.000] him a toe that didn't hit, but race, um, took a little bit of a
[13:23.000 -> 13:25.720] value play. Charles was six to one.
[13:26.120 -> 13:29.440] So I took that and it closed that one 150.
[13:29.440 -> 13:31.480] So, you know, took value on that.
[13:31.480 -> 13:38.360] That didn't hit, but, um, had bought us over with TV for 75% of that race.
[13:38.360 -> 13:39.080] That was a sweat.
[13:39.840 -> 13:47.760] Magnuson got into, but continuing Magnuson's streak of having an incident in a race, but for the
[13:47.760 -> 13:49.920] first time in three races, bought his finished the race.
[13:49.920 -> 13:52.000] So congratulations, Sim there.
[13:52.000 -> 13:57.300] And then I got a little bit lucky on Akon over Alonzo expected in Alonzo grid penalty
[13:57.300 -> 14:03.780] that didn't come and ended up being Akon, but it was good to have some luck.
[14:03.780 -> 14:04.780] Always man.
[14:04.780 -> 14:07.560] And that's part of the game with betting overall.
[14:07.560 -> 14:10.100] Doesn't matter if it's F1 or anything.
[14:10.100 -> 14:13.040] Sometimes, you know, luck goes your way.
[14:13.040 -> 14:17.000] Sometimes it doesn't go your way, but at the end of the day, what you're trying to do is
[14:17.000 -> 14:19.840] maximize your odds on every bet you make.
[14:19.840 -> 14:21.720] And that's all you want.
[14:21.720 -> 14:32.080] That's all you can do is just, is just make sure you do that. Well, guys, we, uh, we, I feel like we are in this like second summer break.
[14:32.080 -> 14:37.720] It feels like, uh, for many of you that may not be getting into F1 or something
[14:37.720 -> 14:41.640] like that just started there actually was supposed to be a race.
[14:41.640 -> 14:45.120] It was supposed to be the Russian GP, but that's been canceled.
[14:45.120 -> 14:50.320] So that's why we have a little bit of a break here until the Singapore GP, which is not this
[14:50.320 -> 14:54.400] weekend, but the following weekend. So it's coming. It's we we're starting to see some odds.
[14:54.400 -> 15:00.720] They're starting to post. Um, I know that last night, Bavada started posting up some, some more
[15:00.720 -> 15:05.860] odds other than just race winners. Um, but before we get into the odds,
[15:05.860 -> 15:11.920] let's kind of go through Singapore. Um, I think it's been what, 2019, the last time
[15:11.920 -> 15:18.700] we've raised here, very, very high downforce track. I mean, it's, it's more technical,
[15:18.700 -> 15:27.720] I guess the comparison would be like a Monaco of course, street circuit with walls. It's at night, which is pretty cool, too.
[15:27.720 -> 15:33.440] So it's the only street circuit at night until there's Vegas.
[15:33.440 -> 15:37.320] Yeah, so I think the strategy typically is going to be,
[15:37.320 -> 15:41.720] you want to try to do a one pit stop, might be two.
[15:41.720 -> 15:42.640] You never know.
[15:42.640 -> 15:43.640] Could be more.
[15:43.640 -> 15:45.600] Who knows what the tires are going to react this year.
[15:46.480 -> 15:53.920] But yeah, I think we've all been trying to dial in on what type of track this is. It's kind of
[15:53.920 -> 15:59.440] hard, right? These are new cars. We've never seen these cars on this track. So what are some of the
[15:59.440 -> 16:06.560] thoughts so far just about trends or things you've seen, things that you are looking to
[16:08.320 -> 16:13.360] use as your analysis going into betting next week, whenever their odds are really pumping out.
[16:14.880 -> 16:20.160] So I'll start, I got a few things that jumped out at me. This isn't track specific, but I would say
[16:20.800 -> 16:26.240] for sure from Monza, we saw odds on, um, FP1 and qualifying.
[16:26.240 -> 16:29.600] It, it seems like the algorithms still aren't strong.
[16:29.640 -> 16:33.880] It seems like they're still overvaluing, uh, Sunday race session performance.
[16:33.880 -> 16:38.040] So giving max better odds than Ferrari, for example, even though we've seen,
[16:38.080 -> 16:42.640] uh, certain teams just don't prioritize FP1 or FP2 or even qualifying
[16:42.640 -> 16:43.640] the same way other teams do.
[16:43.640 -> 16:47.100] So there is still lots of value in those sessions outside of the race day.
[16:47.100 -> 16:50.480] It seems like on the actual race, they're pretty sharp, but I know when
[16:50.480 -> 16:54.480] Bavada, Bodog first released their odds on qualifying, for example, they had
[16:54.480 -> 16:56.780] Ferrari price at plus one 50 for qualifying.
[16:56.780 -> 16:59.620] And, uh, at this point in the season, I don't think for, I should
[16:59.620 -> 17:01.200] be a dog on qualifying at all.
[17:01.200 -> 17:02.880] So that's the first one that jumps out at me.
[17:03.360 -> 17:07.920] Um, Outside of that, like we were analyzing some of the trends, the trends stayed pretty true in Monza,
[17:07.920 -> 17:10.920] even though it was, you know, there's lots of speculation with engine grid
[17:10.920 -> 17:15.480] penalties and, and, uh, how fast max was looking, but all season, well,
[17:15.480 -> 17:18.120] maybe not all season, but the last few races, it seems like we've kind of
[17:18.120 -> 17:23.440] cracked the case on these veteran drivers and FP one guys like Vettel, Hamilton,
[17:23.480 -> 17:26.120] uh, even for stopping to a degree, but yeah guys like Vettel, Hamilton, uh, even
[17:26.120 -> 17:29.960] for stopping to a degree, but yeah, like Vettel, Hamilton, Bottas, the older
[17:29.960 -> 17:33.120] guys, uh, generally don't seem to try as hard, so you'll have good
[17:33.120 -> 17:34.600] luck backing their teammates.
[17:34.600 -> 17:39.400] There Russell and stroll, uh, are always good bets in FP one, and then just bet
[17:39.400 -> 17:41.200] them less and less as the weekend goes on.
[17:41.520 -> 17:44.400] Vettel over stroll and FP three seems like the lock.
[17:44.400 -> 17:47.800] So whether that's driver preference or the team prioritizing
[17:47.800 -> 17:53.300] one car over the other, uh, in the last five FP1 sessions, Lance
[17:53.300 -> 17:55.500] Stroll has beat Sebastian Vettel four out of five times.
[17:55.500 -> 17:57.340] And then in FP3, it's the complete opposite.
[17:57.340 -> 17:59.360] Vettel has beat Stroll four out of five times.
[17:59.740 -> 18:01.740] Those are just a couple of things jumping out at me right away.
[18:01.860 -> 18:04.840] Uh, and then I would just say, you know, Monza confirmed a few
[18:04.840 -> 18:06.960] trends to continue to back for a on
[18:06.960 -> 18:11.080] Saturday and then back red bull on Sunday as a general theme of life.
[18:11.680 -> 18:13.520] This is why you're called lights out, man.
[18:13.720 -> 18:17.200] You just because you're just you're, you're lights out to the books. I mean,
[18:17.200 -> 18:18.680] you're just turning them off right now.
[18:19.160 -> 18:23.960] Yeah. FP trends, FP one, two trends, qualifying trends. I mean,
[18:23.960 -> 18:25.880] you, you call that a lot. So like qualifying, winning car Ferrari until that trend changes,
[18:25.880 -> 18:29.080] they're the ones that are going to, they, they love to do the hot laps.
[18:29.080 -> 18:30.040] Let's just put it that way.
[18:30.040 -> 18:33.560] Then they fade on Sundays because they just can't get their tire
[18:33.560 -> 18:35.960] degradation, just so many things, right.
[18:35.960 -> 18:38.520] Tires strategy, car sucks.
[18:38.520 -> 18:38.960] Who knows?
[18:38.960 -> 18:43.520] You know, stroll over Vettel's obviously a key one you called out there.
[18:43.560 -> 18:48.160] And then, um, what sucks, who knows? Um, you know, stroll over vettles, obviously a key one you called out there.
[18:48.220 -> 18:51.800] And then, um, what was the other one you said you call that one more,
[18:52.000 -> 18:53.760] just fade the veterans on FB one.
[18:53.800 -> 18:55.240] They don't fade, fade them out.
[18:55.840 -> 18:59.480] They, it seems like adrenaline, adrenaline management or something, you know,
[18:59.480 -> 19:00.640] they don't push as hard on FB one.
[19:00.640 -> 19:02.320] They save it for the rest of the weekend.
[19:02.720 -> 19:04.160] Yeah, no, that's awesome.
[19:04.320 -> 19:05.040] Awesome insight.
[19:06.560 -> 19:12.480] Yeah. Who else? I know, I know you guys have been just chatting away on Singapore GP chat
[19:12.480 -> 19:17.920] and the discord, which by the way, if you haven't joined our discord yet, check out our, the link,
[19:17.920 -> 19:23.760] we have it over there on Apple. We have it on our Twitters, join our discord, constantly got action
[19:23.760 -> 19:26.880] going on and talking about the races, even when we're off.
[19:27.640 -> 19:30.560] But yeah, anyone else got some trends that they're they're spying?
[19:31.240 -> 19:33.800] Yeah, I'll go.
[19:33.800 -> 19:34.520] Oh, yeah.
[19:34.520 -> 19:35.480] Go ahead.
[19:35.480 -> 19:40.000] So I'm convinced that Charles Leclerc is just going to win
[19:40.840 -> 19:43.320] the Singapore Grand Prix.
[19:43.680 -> 19:50.320] Wow. Because Monaco, we saw the player this year, he just crushed
[19:50.320 -> 19:57.880] everyone else in qualifying. It's similar here. He got Paul in 2019, by nearly two tenths
[19:57.880 -> 20:10.160] over Vettel, who's supposed to be the Singapore king. And pole position means a lot. So it's nearly 60% who's won from pole position.
[20:11.360 -> 20:15.840] And if Ferrari didn't accidentally undercut the player with Vettel in 2019, it would have been
[20:16.560 -> 20:24.560] around 67%. And we know Ferrari are quite good at qualifying. And if he gets it on pole,
[20:21.340 -> 20:22.560] They're quite good at qualifying.
[20:27.600 -> 20:29.320] And if he gets it on pole, um, uh, I think you need to be two seconds a lot quicker to overtake.
[20:30.120 -> 20:31.840] They just need to get that pit stop phase.
[20:31.840 -> 20:32.360] Correct.
[20:32.360 -> 20:36.840] And hopefully no safety car screws them over.
[20:37.080 -> 20:37.520] Yeah.
[20:37.520 -> 20:41.280] And actually he could have won in 2019.
[20:41.800 -> 20:44.600] We, I mean, most of us probably rewatched the race.
[20:44.600 -> 20:45.920] I'm sure at some point,
[20:45.920 -> 20:50.560] definitely LeClaire was leading the entire time. There was a little mess up with their strategy,
[20:50.560 -> 20:56.320] go figure. But I wanted to call that out. I'm glad you said that because I had this trend actually
[20:56.320 -> 21:03.280] written up on the, uh, what did you say? 60% of the people, uh, drivers on poll win the race,
[21:06.920 -> 21:07.920] of the P uh, drivers on poll win the race, which I'll just, just quickly run it down for you guys.
[21:07.920 -> 21:14.120] LeClaire in 2019 got qualifying and Vettel won the race 2018.
[21:14.120 -> 21:19.480] Hamilton won both qualifying and race 2017 federal one qualifying Hamilton won the race
[21:19.480 -> 21:20.480] 2016.
[21:20.480 -> 21:28.640] Rossberg dominated both sessions, 15 won by Vettel, both quality and race 14.
[21:28.700 -> 21:34.280] I mean, we went four straight years where Vettel and Hamilton or Rossberg
[21:34.580 -> 21:40.040] won, uh, got qualifying and then won the race and actually in 2012, Hamilton
[21:40.040 -> 21:44.000] probably would have won that race too, but he had a DNF, so Vettel ended up
[21:44.000 -> 21:46.680] winning and even though he was, he qualified first.
[21:46.680 -> 21:50.760] So love that stat, by the way, I'm glad you called that out.
[21:51.160 -> 21:55.840] And I do want to say, I think you you're, you're pushing me to, to do another
[21:55.840 -> 22:00.040] Charles Leclerc to win race, uh, this weekend, I think you're convincing me.
[22:00.080 -> 22:02.360] So I think it's plus four 50.
[22:02.920 -> 22:06.720] At the moment, as soon as the FP ones and Ferrari do well,
[22:06.720 -> 22:11.440] that was going to crash anyway. So, and that's, and that's what happened in Monza, right? You
[22:11.440 -> 22:17.040] remember we were talking about this where we were like, what there's, this is crazy. His odds were
[22:17.040 -> 22:24.160] like plus 600. Yeah. And it didn't matter. It didn't matter where he was at. I mean, I don't
[22:24.160 -> 22:27.260] think it was at plus 600 until it was a live bet and he was
[22:27.320 -> 22:29.560] in, you know, third place or whatever it was.
[22:30.140 -> 22:31.520] Here's a question for you guys.
[22:32.860 -> 22:36.180] Are you greedy enough to sprinkle a Claire to win qualifying
[22:36.180 -> 22:38.500] and the, and the race at plus 700?
[22:39.100 -> 22:39.820] Absolutely.
[22:40.280 -> 22:47.200] And that's why, that's why I had this, this grid written up of going back to 2012, where I was like,
[22:47.200 -> 22:52.000] the trend should be, if you're going to bet someone to win the race,
[22:52.000 -> 22:55.120] you might as well bet them qualifying and to win.
[22:55.120 -> 22:56.960] You should. You just should.
[22:56.960 -> 23:00.400] And the stats show it, and Renny actually pointed it out first.
[23:01.680 -> 23:08.560] And I think Verstappen's priced up as if track position is in King here. Like
[23:08.560 -> 23:11.600] it's not Monza where you can just go and overtake easily.
[23:11.600 -> 23:17.680] Yeah, no, absolutely. I think that's, I'm, I'm glad we, I'm glad you called that out
[23:17.680 -> 23:22.520] because that is one that I would say if you're going to, I, it sucks. I'm looking at Bovada
[23:22.520 -> 23:26.340] right now, max for stappan fastest qualifier and when the race is even.
[23:26.900 -> 23:28.240] I don't, I mean, sure.
[23:28.240 -> 23:31.580] If you want to, if you just want to chalk it up to max winning, you
[23:31.580 -> 23:33.080] might as well just do that bet.
[23:33.980 -> 23:34.780] I don't know.
[23:34.780 -> 23:35.080] What is he?
[23:35.080 -> 23:36.740] Two 50, minus two 50.
[23:36.740 -> 23:38.940] Like if you really want to bet max, just do that.
[23:39.980 -> 23:43.740] But, uh, I mean that I just, I love that stat.
[23:43.760 -> 23:49.160] I mean, it's, it's, it's all about that track position early on and yeah.
[23:50.580 -> 23:52.480] And the player got part Monza.
[23:52.520 -> 23:55.580] He should have probably got it at the race before it was Amber, but he made
[23:55.580 -> 23:57.320] a mistake on the final Q3 lap.
[23:57.380 -> 24:03.400] So as long as he does what he has done in the last two race weekends,
[24:04.100 -> 24:05.760] he should be near Paul.
[24:05.760 -> 24:07.540] Yeah. Yeah.
[24:07.540 -> 24:09.300] Well, let me quickly go with one here.
[24:09.300 -> 24:13.480] A trend that I saw that it's not up yet,
[24:13.480 -> 24:15.120] but it's something we should definitely spy,
[24:15.120 -> 24:18.160] which is I went back, looked back from 20,
[24:18.160 -> 24:20.240] all the way back to even 2008,
[24:21.140 -> 24:24.760] but there we should definitely be looking
[24:24.760 -> 24:28.000] at the lap leaders of over two and a half.
[24:28.000 -> 24:33.000] Maybe, I don't know, we can even think about three, whatever the odds may be for that.
[24:33.000 -> 24:40.000] Something we should spy because I think in 2019 we had four different lap leaders, 2018 four different lap leaders.
[24:40.000 -> 24:43.000] 2017 we only had one.
[24:43.000 -> 24:46.600] It's just whoever was on polls stayed up there.
[24:47.000 -> 24:51.800] And in 2016, we had three different ones, 2015, one 2014, three.
[24:52.040 -> 24:54.280] So there is a trend that it's.
[24:55.080 -> 24:58.540] And I think that, and this is one I'm going to continue to research into.
[24:59.360 -> 25:03.540] And I want to go back to those races and watch those again, but it looks like
[25:03.560 -> 25:08.320] over two and a half should be on watch for next week whenever they drop.
[25:08.320 -> 25:13.720] It is something that could definitely be in play, especially if you still have those top
[25:13.720 -> 25:16.100] four within very close of each other.
[25:16.100 -> 25:19.360] So something I was just buying for next week.
[25:19.360 -> 25:29.960] Yeah, what about Del Sado? I just want to mention something that you know, Lights out mentioned earlier, you know,
[25:29.960 -> 25:37.200] with Max almost about to clinch the championship, as you all know, he needs one race, I think
[25:37.200 -> 25:40.080] to win to to clinch the championship.
[25:40.080 -> 25:48.040] But how much are we going to prioritize, you know, Paris, Because he still has a chance to finish in second place
[25:48.040 -> 25:48.960] above Charles.
[25:48.960 -> 25:53.680] So I wonder if we need to keep an eye on odds of head
[25:53.680 -> 25:57.160] to head, Paris versus Max.
[25:57.160 -> 26:00.280] How much is the team going to give the boost to Paris
[26:00.280 -> 26:03.000] to make sure that he finishes in the second position?
[26:03.000 -> 26:06.680] So something to look forward to as far as odds
[26:06.680 -> 26:10.880] and just to keep an eye out when books release their odds
[26:10.880 -> 26:12.440] for the head-to-head matchups.
[26:12.440 -> 26:15.720] But I do have one that I really like for the futures.
[26:15.720 -> 26:19.160] And it is on Bovada again.
[26:19.160 -> 26:24.840] And it's Hamilton and Russell to get points every race
[26:24.840 -> 26:26.240] the rest of the way.
[26:26.240 -> 26:27.720] And it's at plus 900.
[26:27.720 -> 26:32.760] I know there are six races and this is racing and anything can happen at any time.
[26:32.760 -> 26:39.480] But when we look at this season, the Mercedes is the most reliable car on the grid.
[26:39.480 -> 26:47.080] When you take all those two accidents in Belgium for Lewis and the British Grand Prix for Russell,
[26:47.080 -> 26:49.160] they have finished in points every race.
[26:49.160 -> 26:51.480] And I think that Mercedes is going
[26:51.480 -> 26:55.340] to keep on pushing because they're only 38 points,
[26:55.340 -> 26:58.160] I believe, behind the Ferraris for the second position
[26:58.160 -> 27:00.480] in the constructors' standing.
[27:00.480 -> 27:02.160] So I think the Mercedes is going to push
[27:02.160 -> 27:04.120] to get every point they can.
[27:04.120 -> 27:08.720] And those cars, they're very reliable.
[27:08.720 -> 27:11.640] So I think that I'll take that for a plus nine hundred.
[27:12.400 -> 27:17.640] I think it's, you know, based on trends and based on what we've seen,
[27:18.120 -> 27:19.840] this has a very good chance of winning.
[27:20.280 -> 27:24.960] And I think you could even just at every part of the race, you could just throw
[27:24.960 -> 27:25.120] like five bucks or whatever pizza money, as I call it, And I think you could even just at every part of the race you could just throw like
[27:25.640 -> 27:28.820] Five bucks or whatever pizza money as I call it
[27:29.440 -> 27:32.540] on them on DNF because normally isn't it like
[27:33.040 -> 27:37.100] 20 to one or something like that if you really want to yeah
[27:37.100 -> 27:43.960] So you take the place take the plus 900 and if you're really that afraid I don't know throw a couple bucks or whatever on that
[27:43.960 -> 27:46.420] and you at least kind of have a little hedge little hedge to that if you really really that afraid, I don't know, throw a couple of bucks or whatever on that. And you at least kind of have a little hedge,
[27:46.420 -> 27:48.560] little hedge to that if you really wanted to.
[27:48.560 -> 27:50.720] But I actually love that.
[27:50.720 -> 27:52.660] I think you are spot on.
[27:52.660 -> 27:54.960] Mercedes PU hasn't been the greatest,
[27:54.960 -> 27:58.520] the fastest in terms of speed this year,
[27:58.520 -> 28:01.140] but it has been the most reliable compared to,
[28:01.140 -> 28:03.480] I mean, you can even look at, you know,
[28:03.480 -> 28:07.200] McLaren and Mercedes, and obviously last weekend
[28:07.200 -> 28:12.880] wasn't really great for the Mercedes PU and McLaren and Aston Martin, but love that. Love
[28:12.880 -> 28:29.160] that futures pick. But yeah, no, I love it. Jinx, talk to me. What you go, which you got.
[28:29.160 -> 28:30.160] He's on mute.
[28:30.160 -> 28:35.920] All right, well, I'll just keep going then.
[28:35.920 -> 28:37.320] No, so definitely.
[28:37.320 -> 28:38.320] There we go.
[28:38.320 -> 28:39.320] There he is.
[28:39.320 -> 28:40.320] I was talking to myself.
[28:40.320 -> 28:46.160] Back in 2019, the last running finisher was Kevin Magnuson
[28:46.160 -> 28:47.760] by 39 seconds.
[28:47.760 -> 28:52.680] And if you go back, looking at the last five, count them five street circuits at Jetta last
[28:52.680 -> 29:00.640] year and then Jetta this year, Monaco, uh, Baku.
[29:00.640 -> 29:03.680] And then we also had Miami this year.
[29:03.680 -> 29:09.540] Um, neither of us hasn't had a double classification Jetta last year.
[29:09.540 -> 29:10.620] They both DNF.
[29:11.460 -> 29:15.900] Uh, this year, Mick didn't race because of a DNF Miami last lap,
[29:16.620 -> 29:19.560] a mag retired and then Baku mag retired.
[29:19.560 -> 29:24.420] So, um, if you get a juicy odds there, um, you know, take a look at it.
[29:24.420 -> 29:26.520] And it might even be looking at.
[29:26.520 -> 29:32.160] Nick not classifying because he crashed both times that Monaco, you had a huge crash in
[29:32.160 -> 29:33.800] FB three last year.
[29:33.800 -> 29:37.720] And then this year he didn't take part in Jetta because of the massive damage.
[29:37.720 -> 29:38.720] He took him qualifying.
[29:38.720 -> 29:40.760] Then he had a huge crash last year.
[29:40.760 -> 29:46.000] So just look at on the unreliability of the Haas.
[29:47.000 -> 29:50.000] I love it. You know, me fade Haas fade the bad teams.
[29:51.000 -> 29:52.000] I hate to say it too.
[29:52.000 -> 29:56.000] I can't wait until they actually become a good team whenever that may be.
[29:57.000 -> 29:59.000] But yeah, no guys, this was awesome.
[29:59.000 -> 30:07.760] I know that there really isn't a whole lot to really get into in terms of like just trying to see what
[30:08.320 -> 30:13.680] what our normal bets would be for the weekend. It is approaching, it will be here what Monday,
[30:13.680 -> 30:19.840] Tuesday we'll start seeing some FP odds, some qualifying odds, but this was this was awesome
[30:19.840 -> 30:25.400] insight from from the best, the greatest F1 bettors on the planet.
[30:26.760 -> 30:28.680] But, uh, yeah,
[30:29.560 -> 30:29.920] one last question.
[30:30.360 -> 30:30.400] Yeah.
[30:30.800 -> 30:30.840] Yeah.
[30:31.340 -> 30:32.440] Go for it.
[30:35.160 -> 30:36.080] How's the wildcard team Mercedes going to do in Singapore?
[30:40.640 -> 30:40.960] Gosh, man, you know, this is tough because I, and I'll try to keep this short,
[30:46.840 -> 30:47.340] but I, I'm very, I try to take away my biased outlook in this.
[30:51.920 -> 30:53.660] And it's hard because my biased opinion keeps attacking my mind in this situation.
[30:54.360 -> 30:57.180] I think they're going to steal one of the podium spots though.
[30:57.580 -> 31:02.040] I w I think one of, and if I had to guess it would be Russell, but it's
[31:02.040 -> 31:05.280] hard to not look at Hamilton for this race because he has been
[31:05.280 -> 31:10.880] very successful here. I can see Hamilton getting that third spot, but I'm just going to say
[31:10.880 -> 31:18.880] Mercedes will steal a podium spot. That's what I'm going to say. That's it. I think
[31:18.880 -> 31:25.280] that they will be up there. They'll have their shit together.
[31:26.480 -> 31:28.480] But yeah, guys, this was awesome.
[31:28.480 -> 31:32.000] Any last thoughts before we cut off here?
[31:32.000 -> 31:33.000] Anything you want to say?
[31:33.000 -> 31:35.000] I'll just say one more thing, if that's okay.
[31:35.000 -> 31:36.000] Yeah.
[31:36.000 -> 31:40.000] I was looking at when Max will win the title.
[31:41.000 -> 31:46.800] And he'll win it here if the player finishes 7th or below, so for DNFs.
[31:46.800 -> 31:56.400] But the week after is Japan, where he has to win by 112 points in order to win the title.
[31:56.400 -> 32:03.400] He's currently leading by 116, and I'm sure Red Bull would really like to win the title in Japan,
[32:03.400 -> 32:05.840] because of their link to Honda.
[32:05.840 -> 32:09.160] So they might not be too bothered about Singapore.
[32:09.160 -> 32:12.440] I mean I'm sure they still like to win but.
[32:12.440 -> 32:13.440] And that further backs.
[32:13.440 -> 32:14.560] Focus on Japan.
[32:14.560 -> 32:16.960] That further backs your Leclerc.
[32:16.960 -> 32:18.600] Your Leclerc to win bet.
[32:18.600 -> 32:19.600] Hopefully.
[32:19.600 -> 32:23.200] We're all gonna wear the Ferrari shirts on Sunday.
[32:23.200 -> 32:26.640] And then we'll be like halfway through.
[32:26.640 -> 32:28.680] Why the hell did we do this?
[32:28.680 -> 32:31.520] Did we not learn anything from the past 20 races?
[32:31.760 -> 32:32.880] I'm just kidding.
[32:32.880 -> 32:37.800] But no, this is that was that's that's really is, Renny.
[32:37.800 -> 32:41.160] I think I think your Leclerc is really
[32:41.760 -> 32:43.920] I think I might be doing that with you. Trust me.
[32:43.920 -> 32:46.640] I think we're we're we're feeling it for sure.
[32:46.640 -> 32:52.880] But guys, that was awesome. Great conversation. Again, if you haven't already joined our Discord,
[32:52.880 -> 32:58.160] we have the links pretty much on our description. We have it in our Twitter. We have it everywhere.
[32:58.160 -> 33:05.160] We also have the underdog promo code F1MoneyGang. If you sign up, you get a hundred percent match.
[33:06.940 -> 33:07.000] Please join us again.
[33:10.440 -> 33:11.380] Thank you all for joining us in this conversation and hopefully we'll be back next week.