2023 Mexico GP F1MG Betting Preview (Best Picks and Predictions)

Another amazing episode of the F1MG F1 Betting podcast is here and we are heading to Mexico for the Mexican GP.

our crew is sharing their best bets for this weekend and as always make sure you are in the discord for the live chat and live bets as well as any stats or info you might need to make better and smarter bets.

Make sure you follow us on all of our social media platform.

Discord ---- https://discord.gg/qp3Nz3k3Zq

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FanAmp ---- https://get.fanamp.com/F1MG

# Mexican Grand Prix Preview

## Introduction:
- Welcome to the F1 Money Gang podcast, where we preview the Mexican Grand Prix.
- Hosts: Tegrity, Renegade, and Lights Out.
- Excitement for the upcoming race and the final stretch of the season.

## Discussion:
### Sprint Races:
- Renegade expresses his dislike for sprint races and considers them stupid.
- Lights Out shares his experience of attending a sprint race and found it more interesting.
- Discussion about the challenges of getting into the qualifying session due to overcrowding.

### Mexico GP Experience:
- Lights Out shares his positive experience attending the Mexican GP last year, highlighting the lively atmosphere and meeting partners.
- He emphasizes the importance of enjoying the full weekend experience, including activities and meeting people.
- Discussion about the hot weather conditions in Mexico and Texas.

### Free Money Friday Pick:
- Tegrity introduces his "Free Money Friday" segment.
- He recommends betting on Charles Leclerc to beat Carlos Sainz in FP1 at -130 odds.
- Explanation of the logic behind this pick, considering Leclerc's recent form and Sainz's struggles.

### Yuki Tsunoda vs. Daniel Ricciardo:
- Renegade suggests backing Yuki Tsunoda to qualify ahead of Daniel Ricciardo.
- Discussion about Tsunoda's strong performance at high downforce tracks like Mexico.
- Acknowledgment that AlphaTauri may struggle in the race due to their lack of race pace.

### Valtteri Bottas' Potential:
- Discussion about Valtteri Bottas' performance in Mexico last year, where he finished in the top 10.
- Consideration of Bottas' familiarity with the track and his potential for a strong result.
- Emphasis on the risk associated with betting on Alfa Romeo cars due to their inconsistent performance.

### Top Teams and Podium Predictions:
- Red Bull is expected to dominate, with Max Verstappen as the favorite.
- Mercedes is seen as the second-best team, with Lewis Hamilton and Lando Norris likely to challenge for the podium.
- Discussion about Sergio Perez's chances of securing a podium finish.

### Surprising Drivers and Underperformers:
- Renegade predicts that Valtteri Bottas will finish higher than Fernando Alonso in the race.
- Tegrity expresses his belief that Fernando Alonso may perform better than expected.
- Stroll is mentioned as a potential surprise performer, while Carlos Sainz is considered a possible underperformer.

### Random Number Generator:
- The hosts use a random number generator to select a winning margin for the race, resulting in "two plus 850."

## Conclusion:
- The hosts encourage listeners to join their Discord for live chat, live bets, and access to stats and information.
- They remind listeners to follow them on social media platforms.
- The podcast will continue to provide insights and analysis throughout the weekend.

[00:00.000 -> 00:08.360] Welcome to the F1 Money Gang podcast, where we got the Mexico GP preview show.
[00:08.360 -> 00:14.380] I got Tegrity and our own Renegade, my F1 therapist.
[00:14.380 -> 00:15.380] We are back, guys.
[00:15.380 -> 00:16.380] It's been a while.
[00:16.380 -> 00:22.180] I know that we've had a lot of activity, of course, in the past week.
[00:22.180 -> 00:25.940] But we got this race, we got Brazil next week.
[00:26.540 -> 00:28.620] We're we're in the final stretch.
[00:28.700 -> 00:35.480] I mean, this is basically coming to a close and, uh, yeah, just, uh, I can't
[00:35.480 -> 00:37.300] believe we're almost done with the season actually.
[00:37.300 -> 00:45.000] So, um, but here we are, we got, you know, a normal three practices, no sprint races.
[00:46.320 -> 00:50.960] I know Renegade is happy about that, but yeah.
[00:50.960 -> 00:53.760] So how do you guys feel going into this weekend
[00:53.760 -> 00:54.600] very quickly?
[00:56.800 -> 00:59.060] Very glad to have a normal race back.
[00:59.060 -> 01:01.880] Sprints are stupid, they should be banned.
[01:01.880 -> 01:04.520] I don't have much to say about that, they suck.
[01:07.040 -> 01:15.520] Yeah. stupid. They should be banned. I don't have much to say about that. They suck. I have an opinion because I was a spectator finally at a sprint race and I gotta say guys
[01:16.320 -> 01:18.880] it was more interesting though. I do have a quick...
[01:18.880 -> 01:22.720] Okay well we're not saying that. I'm sure it's for the national watch.
[01:22.000 -> 01:23.360] Well, we're not saying that I'm sure it's yeah
[01:29.040 -> 01:29.360] But yeah, but uh gambler wise this shit sucks. I do got a little quick story for you
[01:34.020 -> 01:34.720] Um, it was so crowded trying to get in for the sprint qualifying on saturday
[01:39.920 -> 01:40.480] That we were nine minutes from sprint qualifying and I was like, there is no way we're getting through this line
[01:48.080 -> 01:50.360] I had to actually slip the guy at 20 just to get me and a few other buddies in just through the like VIP lines, just to say, yo, we're not going to make this.
[01:50.360 -> 01:51.960] Cause you know, it's only 40 minutes.
[01:51.960 -> 01:53.480] Like that's half the day.
[01:53.480 -> 01:54.320] Right.
[01:54.320 -> 01:56.700] So it was just kind of funny that it was just got
[01:56.700 -> 01:59.200] to the point of like, all right, tell me what I got to do.
[01:59.200 -> 02:01.480] And he's like, just, yo, just slip that in my back pocket
[02:01.480 -> 02:02.320] and I'll get you in.
[02:02.320 -> 02:03.440] And I was like, all right, here you go.
[02:03.440 -> 02:07.760] So got us in very quick, right on time.
[02:07.760 -> 02:08.760] That's your hometown race.
[02:08.760 -> 02:10.320] Did you go last year?
[02:10.320 -> 02:11.240] I didn't go last year.
[02:11.240 -> 02:12.520] I was thinking about it.
[02:12.520 -> 02:14.400] I actually, this is the first time since COVID started.
[02:14.400 -> 02:16.200] I think the last time I went.
[02:16.200 -> 02:18.320] They broke the record last year, right?
[02:18.320 -> 02:20.520] Yeah, yeah, they did.
[02:20.520 -> 02:21.360] But this year-
[02:21.360 -> 02:22.200] How was it?
[02:22.200 -> 02:24.000] Do you think it was better or worse?
[02:25.880 -> 02:26.280] I mean, I think it was better or, uh, I think, I mean,
[02:32.320 -> 02:36.480] um, I think this was better in terms of my experience watching, just because you kind of felt like, oh, there might be like, you know, Norris might, might win
[02:36.480 -> 02:38.200] this, no, maybe Hamilton will win this.
[02:38.200 -> 02:40.080] No, it's just going to be max.
[02:40.640 -> 02:44.400] Um, but yeah, I also was sitting in turn 19.
[02:44.400 -> 02:46.480] So that was a different experience as well.
[02:46.680 -> 02:50.880] I still prefer turn 15, uh, just because that's where all the
[02:51.240 -> 02:52.920] passing activity will happen.
[02:53.520 -> 02:58.840] Um, yeah, I mean, I would say like, it's been a while of course, but of course it
[02:58.840 -> 03:01.080] was a lot of fun finally seeing a sprint race too.
[03:01.080 -> 03:02.780] So you get to finally see that.
[03:02.780 -> 03:07.040] And then, uh, also meeting just all the different people that we've been
[03:07.040 -> 03:11.680] working with, you know, from our grid rival partners to fan amp guys.
[03:11.720 -> 03:14.000] Um, you get to, get to see the whole thing.
[03:14.920 -> 03:16.040] I, it was hot though.
[03:16.360 -> 03:17.320] It was very hot.
[03:17.440 -> 03:23.580] Um, I will say so, but breaking news, this is the last day of
[03:23.580 -> 03:25.320] hot weather here in Texas.
[03:25.840 -> 03:32.240] So finally, we get to get down to the like the 60s and 50s and all that crummy shit.
[03:32.280 -> 03:34.560] So Miami GP, how?
[03:36.680 -> 03:39.240] Miami GP, how was fucking humid?
[03:39.480 -> 03:40.360] Excuse my French.
[03:41.040 -> 03:42.480] It was human.
[03:42.920 -> 03:44.760] But I mean, I live here and I was struggling.
[03:44.880 -> 03:46.560] Yeah, it's time. It was human, man. But I mean, I live here and I was struggling. Yeah, it's time.
[03:47.080 -> 03:47.960] That was humid.
[03:47.960 -> 03:51.280] But this was like the sun is just in your face.
[03:51.280 -> 03:56.120] So, I mean, I still got a farmer's tan from from the entire weekend.
[03:57.400 -> 03:59.880] But yeah, no, I just I had a great time.
[03:59.880 -> 04:01.640] I always have a great time at these races.
[04:01.640 -> 04:05.340] I look at races as a it's a full weekend experience.
[04:05.340 -> 04:09.720] You got to enjoy just the activity around, enjoy the people and all those things.
[04:09.720 -> 04:13.920] But, um, what enhanced the experience for sure was actually meeting some of those
[04:13.920 -> 04:16.220] partners that we were able to meet with.
[04:16.240 -> 04:18.300] Um, they were just super awesome.
[04:18.300 -> 04:20.720] They were just taking care of us throughout the weekend.
[04:20.720 -> 04:25.600] So, um, But I definitely did not enjoy the drive back because we just straight
[04:25.600 -> 04:27.200] on just went back immediately.
[04:27.240 -> 04:31.440] So lights, we'll have to, to tell his story, his side of the story, because
[04:31.440 -> 04:34.080] that it was his first race F1 race.
[04:34.480 -> 04:39.520] And first time in Texas being a boy from Canada down South.
[04:39.520 -> 04:44.360] So it's, uh, I'd be interested to hear from his perspective, uh, what the race
[04:44.360 -> 04:50.200] was like, but yeah, man, I would invite everyone, whoever you two guys and
[04:50.200 -> 04:52.000] anyone else to come out next year.
[04:52.000 -> 04:53.560] It's, it's definitely a lot of fun.
[04:53.920 -> 04:55.340] So yeah.
[04:56.160 -> 04:57.920] But yeah, let's go ahead and get into it.
[04:57.980 -> 05:00.440] Um, we're going to try to keep this short and sweet.
[05:00.640 -> 05:03.700] We'll try to keep it for the next 15 minutes before we close out.
[05:04.240 -> 05:09.180] Uh, so just to quickly kick us off, we got the softest compounds of the Pirelli tires.
[05:09.180 -> 05:15.080] We've got the C3, C4, C5, uh, traction is supposed to be okay.
[05:15.080 -> 05:17.800] I think tire deg is going to be the lowest we'll see.
[05:17.800 -> 05:21.380] So, uh, if you're for your Haas, that's probably a good thing.
[05:21.380 -> 05:23.320] However, we got altitude.
[05:23.680 -> 05:33.600] That's always going to be the key critical thing within Mexico. So, you know, thin air, you're, you're putting the highest force
[05:34.400 -> 05:39.200] points of downforce on your car. So it's going to be very interesting how like teams are going
[05:39.200 -> 05:47.280] to maneuver this weekend, but let's go ahead and kick it off. I, you know, integrity, you said you had a free money Friday pick.
[05:47.320 -> 05:48.600] We have to start there.
[05:48.680 -> 05:49.800] So what is it?
[05:51.080 -> 05:54.920] I mean, if you've been listening to us, even one episode, you already know why
[05:54.920 -> 05:56.040] I'm here, it's free money Friday.
[05:56.040 -> 05:56.400] That's it.
[05:56.720 -> 05:57.200] FMS.
[05:57.200 -> 05:57.640] What I do.
[05:58.160 -> 05:59.400] Yeah, I am free money Friday.
[05:59.400 -> 06:00.720] And that's what I'm going to continue to do.
[06:00.720 -> 06:01.560] It's free money Friday.
[06:02.360 -> 06:09.160] Uh, this year, everyone in general just has been kind of a crap shoot.
[06:09.800 -> 06:13.260] We've made a lot more money on, you know, I said earlier, I hated the sprints,
[06:13.260 -> 06:17.200] but really free money Friday has been made on Friday golf on this year.
[06:18.000 -> 06:21.560] Just being honest, but we're back to the traditional setup.
[06:23.300 -> 06:24.800] In a great race in Mexico.
[06:25.720 -> 06:27.320] And we got some breaking news today.
[06:28.400 -> 06:29.680] Join the discord to find out.
[06:30.680 -> 06:35.560] Carlos has got a little tummy bug, a little flu game coming in.
[06:35.560 -> 06:36.200] Tell me, huh?
[06:36.920 -> 06:39.480] Didn't participate today on the track.
[06:40.800 -> 06:42.320] Tomorrow's up in, uh, up in the air.
[06:42.320 -> 06:43.200] The state is going to race.
[06:43.240 -> 06:43.840] I hope so.
[06:44.440 -> 06:47.200] Cause this bet, which I'll get to in a second.
[06:47.200 -> 06:49.800] Yeah, apparently Carlos is having some troubles
[06:49.800 -> 06:51.040] this weekend.
[06:51.040 -> 06:53.040] And so we're going to take advantage of that.
[06:53.040 -> 06:56.320] FP1 Charles over Carlos.
[06:56.320 -> 06:58.280] I got it at minus 130.
[06:58.280 -> 07:00.000] I checked about 15 minutes ago.
[07:00.000 -> 07:01.720] It's already got to 145.
[07:01.720 -> 07:02.720] Oh, wow.
[07:02.720 -> 07:03.520] Oh, wow.
[07:03.520 -> 07:07.260] I would say if you can get it anywhere 150 and below,
[07:07.260 -> 07:08.600] I would, I'd ride,
[07:08.600 -> 07:12.960] but it's kind of hard to put anything over 150 on FV1.
[07:12.960 -> 07:14.480] So probably wouldn't recommend that.
[07:14.480 -> 07:17.280] But the logic is the same.
[07:17.280 -> 07:21.140] Charles is gonna beat Carlos FV1 tomorrow
[07:21.140 -> 07:22.280] because he's got dummy load.
[07:22.280 -> 07:24.120] You know who's happy about that?
[07:24.120 -> 07:28.120] Our man, right, that's sitting here in this Zoom.
[07:28.120 -> 07:29.240] Chuck's number one fan.
[07:29.240 -> 07:30.760] Yeah, yeah.
[07:30.760 -> 07:34.760] We're fading as our man would say, the donkey.
[07:34.760 -> 07:39.760] We're fading donkey.
[07:40.840 -> 07:46.400] He's the only man outside Red Bull to win the whole season. I mean it's just unbelievable.
[07:46.400 -> 07:50.720] Trusting me that season but I can't believe it.
[07:50.720 -> 07:59.920] For the listeners, Renegade has been in shambles recently with signs over LeClaire and it's
[07:59.920 -> 08:03.600] been funny to kind of watch but...
[08:03.600 -> 08:07.000] It's coming funny to kind of watch, but, but we're all there.
[08:07.000 -> 08:08.000] Okay.
[08:08.000 -> 08:12.920] Listen for, I don't know if you guys are in the discord, a lot of us have been on that
[08:12.920 -> 08:16.800] Ferrari bandwagon recently.
[08:16.800 -> 08:22.440] Most of us have, I think maybe a few haven't, but I think that's made renegade very proud
[08:22.440 -> 08:27.480] of us, but yeah, no, I just going back to your play, I will, I will admit, I think that's made Renegade very proud of us. But yeah, no, I just going back to your play, I will I will admit
[08:27.480 -> 08:30.240] I saw that that you made that play.
[08:30.280 -> 08:31.320] I mean, it's just auto.
[08:31.320 -> 08:33.120] I didn't I don't have an F1 play.
[08:33.120 -> 08:35.720] I don't have to be quite honest, any place.
[08:36.040 -> 08:37.280] But that was one I did make.
[08:37.280 -> 08:38.200] That's why I made it.
[08:38.200 -> 08:40.200] I made it at that right on time.
[08:40.200 -> 08:44.040] So the fact is, I'm saying that you're it's at minus 145.
[08:44.040 -> 08:50.200] Yes, there is the risk that if he does not race tomorrow and fp1 they just void it. So who cares?
[08:51.040 -> 08:53.040] Yeah
[08:53.800 -> 08:55.800] Confirmed they're not doing the
[08:56.800 -> 09:02.580] Reserve driver thing and to Abu Dhabi. No, I was like my clearance and other teams. Yeah, those will be so
[09:02.580 -> 09:05.340] I don't think there's any risk in that. Yeah.
[09:05.340 -> 09:06.760] Charles also, Charles also has,
[09:06.760 -> 09:08.960] it kind of came back to life last weekend.
[09:08.960 -> 09:09.800] Yeah.
[09:09.800 -> 09:12.040] And I think it's showing, I think it's showing
[09:12.040 -> 09:13.640] because you know, I think it was like
[09:13.640 -> 09:17.160] four or five races ago when science was kind of dominating.
[09:17.160 -> 09:18.320] They were like, what's wrong with LeClaire?
[09:18.320 -> 09:22.120] And he was saying, I'm still trying to get with the car.
[09:22.120 -> 09:24.320] It's still kind of, so it sounds like
[09:24.320 -> 09:28.240] as these races have gone on, he's gotten a little bit more comfortable.
[09:28.240 -> 09:30.440] I mean, shit, we saw it last week, right?
[09:30.440 -> 09:32.000] Like this past weekend.
[09:32.000 -> 09:35.360] So at the USGP, he was killing it.
[09:36.200 -> 09:38.120] So, yeah, I like it.
[09:38.320 -> 09:42.520] I was kind of his story in general, you know, like with Carlos, he's been
[09:42.880 -> 09:47.360] been so up and down, you know, like one week it's like Carlos is the number one driver.
[09:47.360 -> 09:49.240] Oh wait, no, Chuck's back.
[09:49.240 -> 09:50.440] Yeah.
[09:50.440 -> 09:52.360] Yeah, I think Charles hears that shit.
[09:52.360 -> 09:54.640] So like when Carlos starts getting that groove,
[09:54.640 -> 09:56.560] you know, you start to see Charles come back.
[09:56.560 -> 09:57.400] Yeah.
[09:57.400 -> 09:59.480] End of season, lock it in Charles.
[09:59.480 -> 10:01.240] Like I said, hopefully it'll come back down to 130.
[10:01.240 -> 10:03.280] If some people hammer the other way,
[10:03.280 -> 10:04.880] right now it's a little pricey,
[10:04.880 -> 10:06.880] but if you can get it a good price, not follow.
[10:06.880 -> 10:07.940] Perfect, I like it.
[10:07.940 -> 10:08.920] I like it.
[10:08.920 -> 10:10.300] So we got our FMF.
[10:10.300 -> 10:13.160] If you guys are listening, get on it, FMF.
[10:13.160 -> 10:15.780] LeClaire over signs.
[10:15.780 -> 10:19.220] I think most books now are at minus 145.
[10:19.220 -> 10:20.960] We got it at minus 130.
[10:20.960 -> 10:22.040] You should take it.
[10:22.040 -> 10:27.040] All right, so Renegade, I don't know. Do you have any plays yet? What's
[10:27.040 -> 10:30.720] what's what's your status this weekend? What is it? What are the things you're eyeing if you don't
[10:30.720 -> 10:38.640] have any plays? So one thing I was eyeing just before we came on was to back Yuki Tsunoda
[10:38.640 -> 10:46.480] qualifying against Daniel Ricardo. This is the one place, apart from maybe Baku, that he does particularly
[10:46.480 -> 10:55.840] well at. He finished, he qualified 9th in 2021 and he qualified 13th last year but he
[10:55.840 -> 11:04.440] beat Gasly. So I think he's quite good around here. Daniel Ricciardo is not really... he
[11:04.440 -> 11:06.120] looks like he's still getting up to speed
[11:06.120 -> 11:07.860] in the Alfred Towery from a year.
[11:08.800 -> 11:10.520] Did he ever, he was racing last year, right?
[11:10.520 -> 11:11.540] Or a gap?
[11:12.800 -> 11:13.640] A gap in his career.
[11:13.640 -> 11:14.840] No, he was at McLaren last year.
[11:14.840 -> 11:16.840] He was McLaren last year.
[11:16.840 -> 11:18.040] Yeah, so it was.
[11:18.040 -> 11:19.000] It's half a year ago.
[11:19.000 -> 11:20.400] He actually did pretty well here last year
[11:20.400 -> 11:21.240] in the McLaren.
[11:22.240 -> 11:23.240] Yeah, yeah.
[11:23.240 -> 11:26.040] It's probably one of the best results actually.
[11:26.040 -> 11:28.680] Yeah, and that's been kind of the discussion though,
[11:28.680 -> 11:31.360] is what just overall with AlphaTauri,
[11:31.360 -> 11:32.480] how are they gonna do?
[11:32.480 -> 11:37.380] However, but Yuki, I think in all the sessions,
[11:37.380 -> 11:40.480] except for maybe like a couple, was in the top 10.
[11:40.480 -> 11:43.200] So Honda power unit, right?
[11:43.200 -> 11:46.000] Like we know what to expect from that.
[11:46.820 -> 11:50.280] Um, so yeah, like, I think it makes sense.
[11:50.360 -> 11:55.100] Uh, but one question I have for you is, do you believe the alpha Tari's
[11:55.640 -> 11:57.700] performance will be good here?
[11:57.700 -> 12:02.440] Cause someone did bring up and thinking the discord, which I was very, yeah.
[12:03.640 -> 12:06.840] Hey, they haven't done well in, uh, high down force tracks.
[12:06.840 -> 12:07.140] Right.
[12:07.140 -> 12:11.180] And we've always thought, well, Alpine does well in a high down force tracks, right?
[12:11.180 -> 12:15.160] Like there's, there's certain, uh, variables there, but what's
[12:15.160 -> 12:16.200] your thought there, Renegade?
[12:17.300 -> 12:22.680] Yeah, they seem to be struggling, but I don't think they'll do well
[12:22.680 -> 12:23.960] at all because they're race-based.
[12:23.960 -> 12:25.360] They just, they seem to be
[12:25.360 -> 12:28.960] more of a qualifying car at the back end of the season.
[12:28.960 -> 12:33.960] And then comes the race, it seemed to just drop off of the Alfa Romeos and then just
[12:33.960 -> 12:37.520] seem to be without the Alfa Romeos and the Hesters.
[12:37.520 -> 12:40.760] So I wouldn't back them for the race for anything really.
[12:40.760 -> 12:41.760] Yeah.
[12:41.760 -> 12:42.760] Yeah.
[12:42.760 -> 12:49.400] And that's one thing I, I mean, so I don't want to try to make these bold predictions
[12:49.400 -> 12:56.280] or anything, but going into this week, that was my thing was Alpine and Alpha Tari will
[12:56.280 -> 12:59.480] be the ones competing for that midfield.
[12:59.480 -> 13:05.320] Um, they didn't really think about race pace, just more focused on, uh,
[13:09.200 -> 13:11.300] previous, uh, performance as well as where they're going. They've been heading in the right direction.
[13:11.300 -> 13:15.560] It seems like after a disaster start, but you could say that for a lot of
[13:15.560 -> 13:18.360] teams, except for maybe Alpine who's taking a step back.
[13:19.000 -> 13:25.840] Um, so yeah, it's kind of had me kind of pause a little bit, but just to go back to your play,
[13:25.840 -> 13:32.160] focused on qualifying one lap pace, Alpha Tauri is there. We just don't know what to expect from
[13:32.160 -> 13:38.560] race pace. Yeah. Well, it's just to be Danny Rick, right? Oh, that one is. Yeah, specifically.
[13:38.560 -> 13:41.760] But I think there were some folks that were calling out like top 10, right?
[13:43.200 -> 13:46.400] Yeah. I was going to say I'm with AlphaTauri.
[13:46.400 -> 13:47.880] I think the evidence shows this year
[13:47.880 -> 13:50.000] that they're not great at this type of track.
[13:50.000 -> 13:51.640] And I would say to counter it,
[13:51.640 -> 13:53.760] I mean, I know I'm wearing an Alpha Romeo shirt right now,
[13:53.760 -> 13:56.400] but we've done pretty fucking well in these type of tracks.
[13:56.400 -> 13:59.480] Okay, so this is where I was gonna lead to
[13:59.480 -> 14:01.960] on this next part, which was,
[14:01.960 -> 14:04.440] I don't think this is being talked about enough
[14:04.440 -> 14:08.080] because I know it's the toughest pill
[14:08.080 -> 14:12.600] to swallow with this guy, except for you.
[14:12.600 -> 14:15.860] Botox, let's bring up Botox for a second.
[14:15.860 -> 14:19.200] I mean, the guy actually didn't do too bad here last year.
[14:19.200 -> 14:20.920] Too bad, too bad.
[14:20.920 -> 14:23.800] Yeah, top eight, wait, wasn't he top eight?
[14:23.800 -> 14:25.880] Yeah, he's probably in the top six. Was he top eight? He's fighting for top six.
[14:25.880 -> 14:26.880] He's on six.
[14:26.880 -> 14:27.680] That's not bad.
[14:27.680 -> 14:28.560] This is great.
[14:28.560 -> 14:29.280] Let me see.
[14:29.280 -> 14:30.880] Let me see again.
[14:31.360 -> 14:33.960] Uh, I got a good time.
[14:34.560 -> 14:35.400] He was in 10th.
[14:35.400 -> 14:36.200] He was in 10th.
[14:36.200 -> 14:38.840] But here's here's where I was like, fine.
[14:38.880 -> 14:39.600] We practice.
[14:39.600 -> 14:40.240] He was up here.
[14:40.240 -> 14:41.320] Here's where he was.
[14:41.320 -> 14:42.120] I'm going to go back.
[14:42.120 -> 14:42.720] I'm going to go.
[14:42.720 -> 14:43.720] I'm going to go.
[14:43.720 -> 14:47.420] Fp1, Fp1, Bot's where he was. I'm going to go back. I'm going to go. I'm going to go. F P one F P one Botas seventh, right?
[14:47.900 -> 14:55.220] This last year, F P two Botas ninth F P three Botas eighth Q a qualifying one.
[14:55.260 -> 15:00.880] Botas fourth qualifying to six qualifying three.
[15:01.320 -> 15:01.900] Six.
[15:02.140 -> 15:05.440] I mean, at every session he was in top 10.
[15:06.560 -> 15:08.040] I know I'm sorry, in 2021.
[15:08.040 -> 15:08.880] I think he got the pole.
[15:08.880 -> 15:09.700] I think he got the pole.
[15:09.700 -> 15:11.520] He's absolutely offensive to the middle of this race.
[15:11.520 -> 15:14.200] And in 20, yeah, in 2021, but he was in the Mercedes,
[15:14.200 -> 15:16.400] but you know, just comparing last year,
[15:16.400 -> 15:18.160] most recent cars and-
[15:18.160 -> 15:19.840] Either way, he knows the track well.
[15:19.840 -> 15:20.920] He knows the track well.
[15:20.920 -> 15:23.520] And so that was something I wanted to bring up
[15:23.520 -> 15:25.320] was just with you guys was
[15:28.000 -> 15:28.960] when we're looking at these cars and this is something I'm just
[15:33.880 -> 15:33.960] the way I look at the every track this year is I like to just mainly
[15:37.560 -> 15:37.920] mainly focus on the cars from last year and this year. Right.
[15:39.760 -> 15:42.800] And see, because that's my sample. I don't want to look back at 2021 too much and read too deep into it
[15:42.800 -> 15:45.400] because it's completely different cars, right?
[15:53.080 -> 15:58.100] This year, it sounds like that the alpha Romeo just struggles in lots of ways, but in this, on this track, it seems like, you know, they don't need to
[15:58.100 -> 16:00.140] have the highest top line speed.
[16:00.140 -> 16:02.160] They just need to get through the corners fast.
[16:02.800 -> 16:08.160] Um, most everyone's kind of doesn't have to worry about the drag as much in their car.
[16:08.160 -> 16:09.760] They just need to have downforce.
[16:10.400 -> 16:14.240] So there's just little things that puts them, um, in that right spot.
[16:14.880 -> 16:22.080] So I don't know, man, I I'm, but just like any other race I've struggled with in the past.
[16:22.720 -> 16:25.660] When you bet Alfa Romeo,
[16:25.660 -> 16:27.920] you're gonna have to accept the risk, right?
[16:27.920 -> 16:29.240] Back market cars.
[16:29.240 -> 16:30.200] You just don't know.
[16:30.200 -> 16:32.620] So, but just something I wanted to bring up.
[16:32.620 -> 16:36.040] I don't specifically have a play in general,
[16:36.040 -> 16:38.400] but I will just kind of give you quick thoughts
[16:38.400 -> 16:40.640] on top teams.
[16:40.640 -> 16:44.420] So Red Bull is gonna be where they're gonna be at.
[16:44.420 -> 16:45.680] Do I believe Checo is going
[16:45.680 -> 16:51.520] to be competitive? As I've been saying, I'm not going to try to catch a falling knife.
[16:51.520 -> 16:56.500] However, I'm going to bring up pick them very quickly, like grid rivals. I don't know if
[16:56.500 -> 17:01.880] price pick has this line yet or underdog, but they have signs at six and a half like
[17:01.880 -> 17:05.520] you did. The ceiling is higher for this guy at six and a half. Like you did the ceiling is higher for this guy at six and a half.
[17:05.520 -> 17:09.940] You have to take the better of six and a half grid position on that one.
[17:09.940 -> 17:13.500] So if you are a pickums player, you've got to take that six and a half.
[17:13.520 -> 17:18.920] It is just, there's such a high ceiling for him going back to last week.
[17:19.080 -> 17:20.520] Uh, integrity renegade.
[17:20.520 -> 17:23.420] We talked about a little bit on the discord, which was, Hey, they had the
[17:23.420 -> 17:28.300] high, the, uh, the car at a higher, uh, ride height, which was making it kind of
[17:28.300 -> 17:34.540] fabricated that Norris and, uh, in Hamilton were closer to a Red Bull.
[17:34.740 -> 17:38.380] And then on top of that, max bringing a little bit more conservative in general.
[17:38.380 -> 17:40.860] So that might not be an effect here.
[17:40.860 -> 17:44.860] He might just cruise to victory and that just shows how well the car
[17:44.860 -> 17:45.360] is designed
[17:45.360 -> 17:50.880] for this type of track, whether it's altitude or not high downforce or low downforce, that car is
[17:50.880 -> 17:57.680] just super good. So, um, Mercedes, I expect to be the second best team for RE McLaren. I think it's
[17:57.680 -> 18:02.400] pretty much obvious if you are on Twitter, everyone's kind of saying the same thing at
[18:02.400 -> 18:06.320] this point. So that's why I don't want to like beat a dead horse with it. So yeah.
[18:06.320 -> 18:16.280] Yeah. So I guess basically the podium right now is horse max, Lando Lewis, and then the
[18:16.280 -> 18:21.960] checkout one. No, because I mean, he does have the Red Bull. It is his race.
[18:21.960 -> 18:31.360] But that's the thing. If you believe he so markets have already been adjusting to they've already at the beginning
[18:31.360 -> 18:32.360] of the week with Nevada.
[18:32.360 -> 18:35.720] Lewis and Lando are ahead of him right now, right?
[18:35.720 -> 18:36.720] No, it was.
[18:36.720 -> 18:37.720] Well, I don't know.
[18:37.720 -> 18:42.560] I haven't checked in the past, like eight hours or so, but let's just say last night.
[18:42.560 -> 18:45.520] But last night it was Checo and Hamilton on
[18:45.520 -> 18:48.120] Bavada, which tracks bet 365.
[18:48.480 -> 18:52.840] They had them at minus one 50 the night before when we were talking about like
[18:52.840 -> 18:57.520] podium spots and everything, they were both at even money while Lando has been
[18:57.520 -> 19:02.960] at that, that's still the same plus one 10, both even Lando is at plus one 20.
[19:02.960 -> 19:11.360] So, so I guess my question would be like, let's say if Checo does take two or three, who would
[19:11.360 -> 19:15.640] you trust more out of Lewis and Lando to get that three or two?
[19:15.640 -> 19:17.120] Or just the other podium spot?
[19:17.120 -> 19:21.480] I'm biased with my head just has it.
[19:21.480 -> 19:26.000] Mercedes is going to do what they're going to do to get in that top three and I'm
[19:26.000 -> 19:28.080] going to trust Hamilton.
[19:28.080 -> 19:32.240] It's hard to not trust a driver like him just in general.
[19:32.240 -> 19:34.080] That's not to discount anything from Lando.
[19:34.080 -> 19:40.360] I think he's definitely got that potential, but me personally, I'm going to back the,
[19:40.360 -> 19:41.920] the guy that's won championships.
[19:41.920 -> 19:45.000] So yeah, yeah, that's won championships. So yeah. Yep. I don't disagree.
[19:45.000 -> 19:50.000] And by the way, you can get a Max and Louis double podium
[19:50.000 -> 19:51.640] at Even Money right now.
[19:51.640 -> 19:53.220] Even Money. Yeah.
[19:53.220 -> 19:55.720] But for our listeners,
[19:55.720 -> 20:00.680] my approach this weekend is I'm going to be very methodical.
[20:00.680 -> 20:04.880] I get the luxury of three free practices.
[20:04.880 -> 20:06.520] Why force anything now?
[20:06.520 -> 20:10.320] Let me at least see FP1, let me see FP2,
[20:10.320 -> 20:12.240] and then we'll attack.
[20:12.240 -> 20:15.000] If there's a little bit more juice into a line, that's fine.
[20:15.000 -> 20:16.920] I'll take the little juice, whatever.
[20:16.920 -> 20:18.920] But that's the way I'm gonna approach it.
[20:18.920 -> 20:19.880] And I can finally sit down
[20:19.880 -> 20:21.800] and actually like play around with the data too.
[20:21.800 -> 20:23.080] So I'll actually be at home
[20:23.080 -> 20:24.480] and be able to do all that fun stuff.
[20:24.480 -> 20:29.480] So, okay, let's go one last round as to,
[20:30.480 -> 20:32.700] I want you guys to give me,
[20:32.700 -> 20:34.240] I mean, you already gave me your podium.
[20:34.240 -> 20:35.880] So Renegade, when we get to you,
[20:35.880 -> 20:37.960] I want to hear your podium.
[20:37.960 -> 20:42.960] So give me a driver that, Renegade, Chris,
[20:44.400 -> 20:47.080] give me your driver that, Renegade, Chris, give me your driver that you think
[20:47.080 -> 20:49.980] is gonna be surprising us
[20:49.980 -> 20:52.640] and give us one that in both ways,
[20:52.640 -> 20:54.640] they're gonna be in the top 10
[20:54.640 -> 20:57.400] and one that's just gonna be falling flat on his face.
[20:59.120 -> 20:59.960] Okay.
[21:03.080 -> 21:04.320] I'm gonna say,
[21:10.880 -> 21:15.640] I'm going to say, okay, I'm going to say BOTUS and Alvin swap this weekend. I'm going to say BOTUS takes the higher spot, potentially the top 10.
[21:15.640 -> 21:21.040] I would say maybe even the 10th spot, where Alvin's kind of flipping around this year.
[21:21.040 -> 21:22.880] And I'm going to say they're going to have a swap.
[21:22.880 -> 21:26.440] Alvin back at like 13, 14, about to say like 19.
[21:26.440 -> 21:28.640] Okay, you wanna know something?
[21:29.600 -> 21:30.440] Sure.
[21:30.440 -> 21:33.120] Let me just show you something.
[21:33.120 -> 21:36.200] I wanna just, let me just try to pull this up.
[21:36.200 -> 21:41.200] I have exactly what you just pulled out.
[21:41.400 -> 21:42.240] Oh, nice.
[21:52.560 -> 22:01.120] So I'm gonna have to agree. I like it. I like it. Okay Renegade, give us your podium first. What is your podium? I'd say Max and then
[22:01.120 -> 22:07.000] Hamilton and maybe Russell. He was alright last year.
[22:07.000 -> 22:09.000] So I'm going to go Russell.
[22:09.000 -> 22:15.000] Okay, so very quickly, kind of going back to what Tegrity was telling us,
[22:15.000 -> 22:20.000] do you feel like Norris, let's not even, Piastri, McLaren,
[22:20.000 -> 22:27.520] do you think they're going to struggle this weekend? I don't know.
[22:27.520 -> 22:28.520] I think Pastry might.
[22:28.520 -> 22:29.520] Has he driven it before?
[22:29.520 -> 22:30.520] Because he didn't drive it the US.
[22:30.520 -> 22:31.520] I don't think so.
[22:31.520 -> 22:32.520] It showed quite badly.
[22:32.520 -> 22:40.400] Also with Oscar, didn't Lando get an upgraded car from Oscar last week?
[22:40.400 -> 22:42.720] I don't remember actually.
[22:42.720 -> 22:45.240] I actually was kind of out of the loop
[22:45.240 -> 22:46.720] with news last weekend.
[22:47.600 -> 22:49.960] I'm not sure.
[22:51.240 -> 22:56.240] I'm not 100% but I believe that Lando got
[22:56.480 -> 22:57.840] some sort of upgrade.
[22:57.840 -> 22:58.880] Oh, that's, you know what?
[22:58.880 -> 23:00.040] I think it was.
[23:00.040 -> 23:04.120] I think it was Lando because we did do Lando.
[23:04.120 -> 23:05.320] It was an FB1 bet. Yeah, we did do that. And It was an FB1 bet that we were pretty heavy on.
[23:05.320 -> 23:06.840] Yeah, we did do that.
[23:06.840 -> 23:08.200] And it was actually really good odds
[23:08.200 -> 23:09.040] when I was looking back at it.
[23:09.040 -> 23:11.560] I was like, damn, that's the odds we got.
[23:11.560 -> 23:14.160] But I haven't heard anything about Oscar
[23:14.160 -> 23:17.400] getting that same upgrade this week or ever.
[23:17.400 -> 23:22.400] I'm not, I honestly, I'm not trusting Piastri as much.
[23:22.900 -> 23:25.680] Not to say he's a bad driver. I just not going to trust.
[23:25.680 -> 23:26.480] He's very bad.
[23:26.480 -> 23:28.360] Yeah, but OK.
[23:29.520 -> 23:30.720] All right. So that's your podium.
[23:30.720 -> 23:32.200] I like that going.
[23:32.200 -> 23:33.760] He's going all Merc. Love it.
[23:33.760 -> 23:35.920] Where do you see Checo Renegade?
[23:36.560 -> 23:38.520] Where do you see him around?
[23:39.160 -> 23:41.240] Fifth. Fifth. OK.
[23:41.760 -> 23:43.240] All right. So we got the ceiling.
[23:43.240 -> 23:47.040] I said six and a half. It's going be higher. Okay, who's fourth Linda?
[23:48.240 -> 23:50.720] Yeah, who's fourth in your eyes?
[23:53.200 -> 23:55.260] Norris Norris, okay
[23:55.960 -> 24:03.360] All right. Who is the driver that surprises you to be in the top ten of the race not qualifying or anything?
[24:03.400 -> 24:07.680] and who's going to be outside
[24:07.680 -> 24:08.680] of that top 10?
[24:08.680 -> 24:17.000] I think one driver that might surprise, like, I can't believe I'm saying it. Lance Stroll.
[24:17.000 -> 24:21.080] Oh, buddy. Okay.
[24:21.080 -> 24:25.880] Because in the US, because because I think Aston Martin had upgrades.
[24:25.880 -> 24:30.880] They only had one free practice and then qualified terribly.
[24:30.880 -> 24:34.600] But in the race, they were rapid.
[24:34.600 -> 24:39.640] I think Stroll finished under a second to Gasly in the end.
[24:39.640 -> 24:45.440] And obviously, if they qualified normally, they would have been way ahead of both alpines.
[24:48.960 -> 24:50.640] okay let me ask you this while we're on ask martin.
[24:56.960 -> 25:02.560] does alonto get better than ninth place qualifying?
[25:11.400 -> 25:12.400] don't tell me you're gonna be bullish on stroll stroll and not tell me it's going to be better. Was it 9.5?
[25:12.400 -> 25:13.400] I'd say over 9.5.
[25:13.400 -> 25:14.400] 8.5.
[25:14.400 -> 25:15.400] Under 9.5.
[25:15.400 -> 25:16.400] 8.5 better or worse?
[25:16.400 -> 25:17.400] Worse, I think.
[25:17.400 -> 25:18.400] You think worse?
[25:18.400 -> 25:19.400] Qualified, because alpines are quite good qualified.
[25:19.400 -> 25:20.400] Man, all right.
[25:20.400 -> 25:27.840] Well, here's my question. How worse? I think. You think worse? Qualifying, because Alpines are quite good qualifying.
[25:27.840 -> 25:33.040] Man, alright, well here's my other card that I have.
[25:33.040 -> 25:39.000] I have Alonzo better than 8.5 and Perez better than 6.5.
[25:39.000 -> 25:40.320] I'm rolling the dice.
[25:40.320 -> 25:41.320] Totally.
[25:41.320 -> 25:42.520] So I am rolling that dice.
[25:42.520 -> 25:43.520] I think that...
[25:43.520 -> 25:46.320] Perez better than 6.5 qualifying. No, totally. So I am rolling that dice. I think that... Harris, that's six and a half.
[25:46.320 -> 25:47.040] Yeah.
[25:47.040 -> 25:49.280] Well, let's break it down. We got Max one,
[25:50.560 -> 25:52.240] Louis two, we kind of all agree on.
[25:53.040 -> 25:54.480] We're saying Russell three.
[25:54.480 -> 25:56.960] You can swap that in with Norris. Okay, so three, four.
[25:58.080 -> 26:00.160] And I think the flip of the fair is going to be two somewhere.
[26:01.520 -> 26:03.680] So I go coming in at five?
[26:05.920 -> 26:08.920] Yeah. I mean, we have... Or Charles. So I'm coming in at five. Yeah, I mean, we have our Charles
[26:09.040 -> 26:11.320] or Charles coming in.
[26:11.600 -> 26:14.720] Charles somewhere, maybe he's in fourth swaps
[26:14.720 -> 26:18.240] with Norris Piastri and like that seventh swaps with
[26:19.000 -> 26:21.280] maybe he swaps with Alonzo, who knows?
[26:21.320 -> 26:25.540] Like, I guess my thing is, this is kind of to what, you know, Renegade is saying.
[26:26.760 -> 26:28.040] They have the upgrades.
[26:28.040 -> 26:31.640] They showed promise at the end of the weekend.
[26:32.360 -> 26:37.660] The problem, it seemed, with them was they couldn't get their car right.
[26:37.760 -> 26:41.760] There's only one FP session, and it just was not fitting them.
[26:42.100 -> 26:45.360] So they finally get more time to prepare.
[26:45.360 -> 26:48.600] They get three FP sessions to get it right.
[26:48.600 -> 26:50.620] And they probably will get it right,
[26:50.620 -> 26:55.620] but I feel like I'm buying low on Alonzo this weekend.
[26:55.760 -> 26:58.000] And plus, what do I like to do all the time?
[26:58.000 -> 27:02.260] I like to back good drivers, but yeah.
[27:03.520 -> 27:08.000] I like your stroll pick, but you never told us. Oh yeah.
[27:08.000 -> 27:13.680] Yeah, I was gonna say, and I think the best way to play that for the race is like, say
[27:13.680 -> 27:18.720] if like, it's like, uh, Gasly is like eight for the strolls temp, then I think like some
[27:18.720 -> 27:21.920] sort of head dead would be the better way to play that.
[27:21.920 -> 27:27.240] Yeah. Yeah, for sure. For sure. Okay, so who's the driver that will surprise you the other way?
[27:27.720 -> 27:29.920] That does crappy.
[27:30.560 -> 27:32.320] Carlos Sainz.
[27:32.320 -> 27:34.080] Donkey.
[27:34.080 -> 27:36.880] He's got donkey.
[27:36.880 -> 27:37.640] I love that.
[27:37.640 -> 27:40.320] He's on his way back already.
[27:40.320 -> 27:43.120] Back to like six, six, six place every race.
[27:43.440 -> 27:49.640] He's got a stomach ache, as you said, end of the season, that's it.
[27:50.280 -> 27:51.160] I had to shoot.
[27:51.480 -> 27:53.920] He was eating at the wrong street taco stand.
[27:54.520 -> 27:55.800] I mean, can't do that.
[27:55.800 -> 27:56.000] Right.
[27:56.000 -> 27:57.000] We're assuming it's a stunt.
[27:57.000 -> 27:59.600] It could be something serious like herpes or something.
[27:59.600 -> 28:02.240] No, I mean, it could be, yeah, definitely STD man.
[28:02.400 -> 28:03.760] Like for sure.
[28:04.360 -> 28:04.920] For sure.
[28:05.840 -> 28:07.840] Hopefully he didn't give it to Stroll.
[28:07.840 -> 28:10.000] Okay.
[28:10.000 -> 28:10.840] All right.
[28:10.840 -> 28:11.680] Well, that was fun.
[28:11.680 -> 28:13.560] That was fun.
[28:13.560 -> 28:14.460] Okay.
[28:14.460 -> 28:16.680] Just to recap, Free Money Friday,
[28:16.680 -> 28:20.800] Tegrity's got LeClaire minus 130 over signs.
[28:20.800 -> 28:23.400] It's at minus 145.
[28:23.400 -> 28:25.640] Renegade and I, we don't really have picks.
[28:25.640 -> 28:29.060] We kind of give implied views, I guess you can say,
[28:29.060 -> 28:30.780] on where we're going to go,
[28:30.780 -> 28:34.320] like where we think people will position,
[28:34.320 -> 28:37.520] how we approach those odds, get into the Discord.
[28:37.520 -> 28:39.760] You can ping us, you can message us,
[28:40.860 -> 28:43.680] and we'll be able to tell you like, this is a good bet,
[28:43.680 -> 28:46.240] but stay in tune with F1 Money
[28:46.240 -> 28:48.720] Gang as the weekend is going on.
[28:48.720 -> 28:52.800] That's when we're going to give you all the real insights as the data comes in.
[28:52.800 -> 28:55.720] We see the cars, we see performance.
[28:55.720 -> 28:58.480] That's when we'll say this is what we feel comfortable backing.
[28:58.480 -> 29:03.480] So just quick round, any last words from you guys?
[29:03.480 -> 29:05.180] I mean, we can get another one. We can get another big, an easy one. Just quick round, any last words from you guys?
[29:06.440 -> 29:10.080] I mean, we can get another one. We can get another pick, an easy one, guaranteed winner.
[29:10.080 -> 29:12.760] Oh yeah, we still have, I mean, it's great.
[29:12.760 -> 29:16.760] We still have all morning before we get there, so.
[29:16.760 -> 29:18.040] All right, one sec.
[29:18.040 -> 29:21.680] Alexa, pick a number of one through 10.
[29:22.880 -> 29:24.760] A random number is two.
[29:24.760 -> 29:25.080] Two. Pick a number one through 10. A random number is to do.
[29:26.200 -> 29:29.480] Winning margin ending in two plus eight.
[29:30.520 -> 29:33.360] Oh, God, he's back in.
[29:33.360 -> 29:35.800] Alexa made the call to I love it.
[29:36.800 -> 29:38.480] Are you going to not chose the AI?
[29:38.480 -> 29:41.760] She is going to be one
[29:41.960 -> 29:43.840] in oh, after the weekend.
[29:43.840 -> 29:45.320] I freaking love it.
[29:45.320 -> 29:46.720] All right.
[29:46.720 -> 29:51.120] So we got two as the number for the margin plus 850.
[29:52.420 -> 29:53.720] I love it.
[29:53.720 -> 29:56.680] Renegade, my man, last words?
[29:58.720 -> 29:59.560] It's good luck.
[29:59.560 -> 30:01.880] No, no last words.
[30:01.880 -> 30:03.640] We don't need luck.
[30:03.640 -> 30:04.840] We are just, we just need,
[30:04.840 -> 30:06.680] we just need to use our skill, right?
[30:07.320 -> 30:08.040] Just our skill.
[30:08.040 -> 30:10.640] May the racing gods be on your side.
[30:10.640 -> 30:12.720] Where's the the Jeff?
[30:12.720 -> 30:15.320] You know, yeah, I don't know.
[30:17.280 -> 30:18.520] I love it.
[30:18.520 -> 30:22.960] All right, guys, this was fun, but thank you guys for joining again.
[30:22.960 -> 30:25.760] Get into discord and we have pickums.
[30:25.760 -> 30:27.080] We have fantasy.
[30:27.080 -> 30:29.600] We have everything you still have all morning.
[30:29.600 -> 30:31.160] You can ping us.
[30:31.160 -> 30:32.560] So, yeah, just get in there.
[30:32.560 -> 30:34.560] All right, guys, we'll see you tomorrow.