2023 Formula 1 Italian GP Betting Preview Best Picks and Predictions S.2 E.14

Check out our website for articles, podcasts, picks and etc. https://www.f1moneygang.com/

Make sure you join our Discord with up to date picks and latest F1 news, and discussions : https://discord.gg/qp3Nz3k3Zq

If you like our content...anything helps for us to continue to bring you the best content to make your informed decisions! https://www.buymeacoffee.com/rluZWkWru8

Sign up for Betstamp and get access to 50+ sportsbook and best odds using our link: https://betstamp.app/best-sportsbooks/f1moneygang

Sign up for Underdog Fantasy and get $100 deposit match: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/p-lights-out-f1

Join our newest partner : https://get.fanamp.com/F1MG

# Italian Grand Prix Preview and Predictions

## Introduction

- The Italian Grand Prix is back at the Monza circuit, and the F1 Money Gang podcast crew is ready to break down all the action.
- This episode features Lights Out F1 Bets, Tegrity Bets, Jinx, Renegade, and special guest host McButters.

## Track and Qualifying Format

- The Italian Grand Prix will be held on the lowest downforce track of the Formula One calendar, similar to Azerbaijan and Canada.
- A unique qualifying format will be used, with drivers required to use specific tire compounds in Q1, Q2, and Q3.
- This format makes it more challenging to predict the outcome of qualifying and adds an extra layer of strategy for the teams.

## Picks and Betting Strategies

- Lights Out F1 Bets highlights the importance of watching Friday's practice sessions to gather information and make informed betting decisions.
- Tegrity Bets recommends keeping an eye on the Ocon vs. Gasly head-to-head matchup, which has been favorable for Ocon lately.
- Tegrity also suggests considering long-shot bets on Williams drivers, Ferrari, and Mercedes to win the race.
- Jinx is cautious about making any bold predictions, but he mentions the possibility of Ferrari performing well at their home track.
- Renegade suggests betting on Williams' double points or Sargent's top 10 finish, as well as keeping an eye on Alpine and Alpha Tauri for potential surprises.

## Other Betting Options

- Lights Out F1 Bets mentions the possibility of betting on top three finishes for Red Bull drivers or taking advantage of early odds on Verstappen not winning FP1.
- Chris suggests betting on a winning margin of over 12 seconds for the race, based on previous results at Monza.
- Jinx mentions the option of betting on Ferrari double points or Lance Stroll's points finish.
- Renegade recommends betting on Max Verstappen's fastest lap, either as a standalone bet or combined with a race win.
- The crew also discusses the potential for betting on the number of race leaders, with one or two being the most likely outcome.


The Formula One Money Gang podcast discussed the upcoming Italian Grand Prix at Monza, known for its low downforce and high speeds. The hosts analyzed the unique tire strategies teams might employ, considering the track's characteristics and the new tire regulations. They highlighted the importance of having fresh tires for Sunday's race and the potential for mixed strategies, as seen in previous years.

The conversation then shifted to the qualifying positions for the race. The hosts examined the price picks and underdog posts, noting the wide range of predictions for drivers' qualifying positions. They emphasized the potential for surprises, especially in the midfield, and suggested that some drivers might qualify higher or lower than expected.

The hosts also discussed the potential impact of grid penalties, which were yet to be announced at the time of recording. They stressed the importance of staying informed about breaking news and being prepared to adjust bets accordingly.

Finally, the hosts provided some general tips for race day, cautioning against making blind bets and advising listeners to wait until they see the track conditions and driver performances before committing to significant wagers. They also mentioned the possibility of a rogue driver starting from the pit lane, which could present betting opportunities.

Overall, the podcast provided valuable insights and analysis for Formula One fans and bettors, highlighting the complexities of the Italian Grand Prix and the potential for exciting racing and betting opportunities.

[00:00.000 -> 00:20.240] Welcome back F1 Money Gang podcast back at the Italian Grand Prix Monza.
[00:20.240 -> 00:24.020] We got the crew here lights out F1 bets.
[00:24.020 -> 00:26.560] We got Tegrity bets or McButters
[00:27.040 -> 00:34.280] We got Jinx Eugene and renegade our panel today. We're gonna be talking all things Italian
[00:34.920 -> 00:36.920] Grand Prix guys welcome
[00:37.680 -> 00:41.200] Before we get started though, like always got to go through
[00:41.680 -> 00:52.400] What are we expecting with the track this weekend? So to kick us off, we have the C3, C4, C5 compound, the lowest downforce track of this
[00:52.400 -> 00:58.800] of the calendar. So, I mean, I think the other lowest downforce tracks we had were Azerbaijan.
[01:00.080 -> 01:11.060] You can probably throw in Canada in that mix as well as Yeah, I think that's it really Oh Belgium Belgium Grand Prix. So yeah, I expect that we will have
[01:12.120 -> 01:19.720] High speeds going into this weekend. Don't know what we expect one wrench into the weekend. We're gonna see also just a call-out
[01:20.520 -> 01:29.700] different qualifying format similar to what we had at the Hungarian Grand Prix, which was Q1, you have to use hard set of tires, Q2, got to
[01:29.700 -> 01:35.100] use the medium set and Q3 got to use soft set instead of having 13 allocated
[01:35.140 -> 01:37.200] tires, you can only have 11.
[01:37.200 -> 01:42.940] So that is really making it interesting to how we approach our bets this weekend.
[01:43.940 -> 01:48.220] And lastly, I want to give a shout out to our partners
[01:48.220 -> 01:51.480] under Dog Fantasy Sports, as well as Grid Rivals
[01:51.480 -> 01:53.600] and Betstamp.
[01:53.600 -> 01:55.240] Thank you guys for sponsoring us.
[01:55.240 -> 01:58.400] So yeah, let's kick it off.
[01:58.400 -> 02:00.140] Let's go round table.
[02:00.140 -> 02:02.780] I don't know who's actually bet anything
[02:02.780 -> 02:04.600] this weekend yet so far.
[02:04.600 -> 02:10.280] So I will kick us off with, uh, let's go with lights since he's got the
[02:10.280 -> 02:12.480] cool, cool background going right now.
[02:13.140 -> 02:13.560] Yeah.
[02:13.560 -> 02:15.460] Northern lights, uh, up north here.
[02:15.480 -> 02:21.680] So first, it seems like there's something new every, every year or every race this
[02:21.680 -> 02:27.200] year, uh, it seems like it might be our first race with normal weather on Friday
[02:27.600 -> 02:30.300] with hard, medium, soft qualifying.
[02:30.300 -> 02:34.440] So, uh, for me, for the discord right now, it's all eyes on Friday.
[02:34.440 -> 02:35.560] What are all these teams going to do?
[02:35.560 -> 02:36.880] How are they going to approach testing?
[02:37.140 -> 02:38.440] What tires are they going to burn through?
[02:38.440 -> 02:39.900] Who's going to go hard testing upgrades.
[02:39.900 -> 02:40.900] Who's going conservative.
[02:41.560 -> 02:43.120] Uh, that's where my focus is right now.
[02:43.160 -> 02:46.040] Coming off of, um, uh, pick them
[02:46.040 -> 02:48.040] sweep on race day, we went six for six.
[02:48.040 -> 02:51.200] So I've got a couple of more of those picks obviously do for some regression,
[02:51.200 -> 02:54.720] probably going to go over, over six this week, but, uh, we'll give out the plays
[02:54.720 -> 02:58.400] anyways, and besides that, yeah, just looking at how we can play Friday and
[02:58.400 -> 03:01.440] hopefully kick off the weekend, uh, with some, with some profit.
[03:02.320 -> 03:02.520] Yeah.
[03:02.520 -> 03:07.380] And we were just briefly chatting about that before we started recording, which was,
[03:08.260 -> 03:09.980] this is the second race,
[03:09.980 -> 03:12.260] I mean, I don't know if this has ever been done,
[03:12.260 -> 03:13.900] where we had this qualifying format.
[03:13.900 -> 03:17.040] It did make for an interesting qualifying format.
[03:17.040 -> 03:19.300] However, from a better perspective,
[03:19.300 -> 03:22.140] especially the ones that like to bet free money Friday,
[03:22.140 -> 03:24.480] I'm looking at my guide tech radio over there,
[03:24.480 -> 03:29.000] it does make it harder, especially with the fact that the Hungarian
[03:29.000 -> 03:32.540] grand prix FP one session would basically rained out.
[03:32.660 -> 03:37.100] I mean, well, I mean, they still were out there on intermediates, but that
[03:37.100 -> 03:41.960] didn't, that was just one session that you could just been, it didn't matter.
[03:42.660 -> 03:45.960] And then they were able to go into the FP2 session
[03:45.960 -> 03:48.800] and most just stuck with one tire
[03:48.800 -> 03:53.440] or maybe slapped on the softs for one lap and that was it.
[03:53.440 -> 03:57.560] So now you have 11 allocated tires
[03:57.560 -> 03:59.640] to use throughout all these sessions.
[03:59.640 -> 04:01.920] It's just gonna, it makes it harder to predict
[04:01.920 -> 04:04.740] what can happen, so yeah.
[04:07.040 -> 04:09.480] Well, speaking of free money Friday,
[04:09.480 -> 04:11.280] let's go on to Tegrity.
[04:12.400 -> 04:16.160] Do you have any liens or anything like that going?
[04:16.160 -> 04:18.680] Of course, of course.
[04:18.680 -> 04:20.480] There it is.
[04:21.520 -> 04:24.440] Last weekend, pretty much pushed.
[04:24.440 -> 04:28.420] We missed out on our plus odds, but we did get our head to head to bring us back to pretty much even
[04:28.420 -> 04:31.160] Don't get like a point zero five profit. Nothing big nothing brag about
[04:32.380 -> 04:35.460] But finally, we're starting to see some trends
[04:36.900 -> 04:43.040] Everyone just kind of kind of been of a mess all year with the rain and just just everything in general
[04:43.040 -> 04:47.800] It's just we haven't really gotten any kind of solid trends to go off of, but I believe
[04:47.800 -> 04:50.640] I have found one that's looking really nice.
[04:50.640 -> 04:52.760] And it's actually the same bet we did last week.
[04:52.760 -> 04:57.320] So let me go ahead and put these on.
[04:57.320 -> 05:01.160] This bet right here, let's say head to head, we're going to go back with Ocon over Gasly.
[05:01.160 -> 05:03.200] I actually got a better number this week.
[05:03.200 -> 05:10.320] It's a minus 120 So far Ocon has a five streak on him and he has a 70% win streak percentage win
[05:10.880 -> 05:13.320] Over Pierre general over the entire year
[05:13.920 -> 05:18.400] Last year, we saw Ocon sweep him in there a few ones or free practice in general
[05:19.360 -> 05:23.360] So just like I said, we're finally getting some trends. It's been kind of hard this year
[05:23.640 -> 05:26.240] but we're finally starting to see at least this one come up and
[05:27.240 -> 05:29.000] minus 120
[05:29.000 -> 05:30.720] Said it once or seven again
[05:30.720 -> 05:34.220] Trends of your friends and everyone's and that's what we're gonna stick with so that's we're gonna go with
[05:34.560 -> 05:36.560] So that's gonna be our first one
[05:37.160 -> 05:39.160] Also got a couple long shots. I like
[05:40.000 -> 05:43.680] It's one of the why I did like I think we've everyone's kind of talked about it
[05:44.360 -> 05:45.400] Williams kind of talked about it Williams
[05:45.400 -> 05:47.400] Kind of expecting a lot of Williams this weekend
[05:47.840 -> 05:49.840] It did get taken down today
[05:49.960 -> 05:55.200] But yesterday I had Alex all up on top three if you want that was priced at plus 500
[05:56.080 -> 05:59.080] Want to put a little sprinkle on that one? I also like
[05:59.720 -> 06:07.440] Ferrari to win and you can also throw in Mercedes to win Ferrar's at plus 500. I think Merc's at plus 850.
[06:08.560 -> 06:13.840] You know, worth a couple of coins as long as basically you're, you got the pretty much the
[06:13.840 -> 06:18.240] fastest straight line. One of the fastest cars, straight line speed with the Williams. You got
[06:18.240 -> 06:23.520] Merc and you got Ferrari, all at giant plus numbers. Basically, Mac does a win. You got a
[06:23.520 -> 06:26.540] good shot hitting some pretty good solid units there.
[06:26.540 -> 06:29.020] Yeah, that's what we're looking at
[06:29.020 -> 06:30.460] and we're gonna cash this time.
[06:30.460 -> 06:32.700] We'll fill it, we gotta come back.
[06:32.700 -> 06:33.540] It's a year.
[06:33.540 -> 06:35.780] Yeah, the Ocom bet is interesting.
[06:35.780 -> 06:40.100] It's like they continuously still price,
[06:40.100 -> 06:42.820] I'm pretty sure they've, they press low.
[06:42.820 -> 06:44.300] They've been around picking pretty much.
[06:44.300 -> 06:48.800] Yeah. But I mean, I don't care't care whatever they can do whatever they want to
[06:49.720 -> 06:56.980] It changes in fp2 and 3. It's funny. They then flip it. It's like they're testing us to keep taking it. Yeah
[06:56.980 -> 07:02.020] I think we're just kind of seeing the Alpines kind of prioritizing Ocon a little bit and if it ones
[07:02.940 -> 07:04.940] So yeah good for us
[07:05.160 -> 07:06.080] All right, so you got Ocon a little bit and if it wins, so yeah, good for us.
[07:08.740 -> 07:09.960] All right, so you got Ocon over Gasly,
[07:13.600 -> 07:14.520] Ferrari, Mercedes, Albon.
[07:16.000 -> 07:16.840] Was Albon top three? Okay, yeah.
[07:16.840 -> 07:19.040] Yeah, top three plus 500, although it did get taken down.
[07:19.040 -> 07:20.160] That's only on Bovada.
[07:20.160 -> 07:22.720] I haven't had to check the other books.
[07:22.720 -> 07:23.560] I'm checking on Bovada.
[07:23.560 -> 07:29.660] They took down top threes all across the board. It's not even there on my body anymore. Hopefully it comes back. You're right. It is down
[07:29.660 -> 07:31.060] Oh, yeah, okay
[07:31.060 -> 07:37.580] But yesterday is plus 500 hopefully it comes back or at least some similar that and then we got Ferrari plus 500 and Mercedes plus
[07:37.580 -> 07:39.360] 850
[07:39.360 -> 07:42.040] Yeah, Williams is the trend huh? It seems like
[07:42.640 -> 07:46.160] That's the the hot chick that just entered the bar.
[07:46.800 -> 07:47.680] Everyone's staring.
[07:47.680 -> 07:48.240] Even Logan's looking good.
[07:48.240 -> 07:48.720] Which is good.
[07:48.720 -> 07:48.960] Yeah.
[07:49.600 -> 07:50.080] That's hard.
[07:51.920 -> 07:58.080] You know, I did not expect him to perform as well. You know, first off, can we just appreciate
[07:58.080 -> 08:07.320] Albon? And he drove 40 goddamn laps on softs through the rain and still got what top six.
[08:07.320 -> 08:09.520] Was he, was he top six?
[08:09.520 -> 08:11.000] I don't even, I don't recall.
[08:11.000 -> 08:13.200] I think he got screwed.
[08:13.200 -> 08:14.200] Did he get screwed?
[08:14.200 -> 08:15.200] Yeah.
[08:15.200 -> 08:16.200] Was he top 10?
[08:16.200 -> 08:17.200] He was eight.
[08:17.200 -> 08:19.360] I apologize to everyone here.
[08:19.360 -> 08:24.880] I was too busy NASCAR-ing it up the entire weekend, so I didn't really watch it.
[08:24.880 -> 08:26.760] Yeah. Ended up at P8. Still some. He NASCAR in it up the entire weekend, so I didn't really watch it
[08:32.440 -> 08:33.400] Yeah, ended up at p8 still so yeah, it's still top 10 he still ended up top 10 and
[08:38.040 -> 08:38.720] While everyone was on intermediates. He still was on softs the entire time
[08:44.560 -> 08:46.360] That's crazy. That's that's just that's some good skill right there to be able to take on some slicks in pouring rain and
[08:46.360 -> 08:49.620] be able to do that.
[08:49.620 -> 08:55.840] Williams definitely seems like they're just so hot right now.
[08:55.840 -> 09:01.600] It seems like they're the ones that everyone is really gun-ho on, I noticed.
[09:01.600 -> 09:05.120] Which I'm going to be very curious to see.
[09:05.120 -> 09:09.160] I mean, this should be the last time they, they perform well, but we thought they wouldn't
[09:09.160 -> 09:10.760] do as well as Sam Ford.
[09:10.760 -> 09:11.760] And here we are.
[09:11.760 -> 09:12.760] Right.
[09:12.760 -> 09:13.760] So who knows?
[09:13.760 -> 09:14.760] Maybe it was like the graveyard for Williams.
[09:14.760 -> 09:21.040] Last is this McLaren 2.0, where we just now see Williams just finish off strong and they
[09:21.040 -> 09:23.280] end up being in top 10 from here on out.
[09:23.280 -> 09:27.120] I'm here for it. Don't know.
[09:27.120 -> 09:35.320] So yeah, like it. Jinx, what's going on, buddy? What do we what are you feeling this weekend?
[09:35.320 -> 09:43.200] I don't have anything. Hopefully Williams goes back to being a shitbox. I don't really
[09:43.200 -> 09:49.280] appreciate all this good run and it's making me sweat my under no podium Albon bet.
[09:50.720 -> 09:52.760] Really making me sweat it.
[09:52.760 -> 09:54.800] So this week I did do one bet.
[09:54.800 -> 09:59.800] I put 0.65 units on Albon at 25 to one to get a podium.
[10:04.080 -> 10:08.580] So basically if he hits 25 to one, um, to, uh, get a podium. So basically if he hits 25 to one podium, I'll make more, I'll get
[10:08.580 -> 10:10.560] my money back for my seasons prop.
[10:11.600 -> 10:14.260] But, uh, no, nothing, um, really.
[10:14.260 -> 10:18.480] I, and I mean, maybe this is the week Ferrari finally gets it together.
[10:19.220 -> 10:22.620] Um, you know, one time for the year, we did see it last year.
[10:22.720 -> 10:26.520] Um, they were basically done at this point last year, kind of like where they were
[10:26.520 -> 10:29.320] now and LeClaire won the poll and won free practice one.
[10:30.000 -> 10:35.120] So, I mean, that's something to consider, but I mean, everything, it seems like
[10:35.120 -> 10:37.440] everybody, but Max can take a grid penalty.
[10:38.160 -> 10:46.220] I mean, I do feel like people are really, you know, overestimating, um, how tough it is going
[10:46.220 -> 10:47.220] to be to pass here.
[10:47.220 -> 10:55.180] Um, you know, we've seen, you know, the Mercedes in 2021, uh, it took him a while to move up.
[10:55.180 -> 11:00.060] Um, and then even Perez last year, Perez had a pit issue, but there were two safety cars
[11:00.060 -> 11:03.700] and he really struggled getting, getting up in the field then too.
[11:03.700 -> 11:07.440] So I mean, I think people just see max cut through and they think everybody can do it.
[11:08.560 -> 11:13.440] I mean, even though it's just a long straight track, really low downforce, still dirty air,
[11:13.440 -> 11:19.200] still DRS trains, same deal as everybody else. If you're stuck behind Albon, just get your
[11:19.200 -> 11:22.400] popcorn ready. Cause you're not going anywhere till he burns his tires.
[11:23.120 -> 11:25.380] Absolutely. 100%. It's not going to be he burns his tires up. Absolutely. 100%.
[11:27.460 -> 11:27.520] It's not going to be easy to pass on this thing.
[11:27.760 -> 11:31.800] Yeah. So, um, nothing, nothing, nothing, uh, I'm really eyeing right now.
[11:31.880 -> 11:36.040] Probably won't, won't do anything till unless there's like a major grid penalty.
[11:36.320 -> 11:41.220] Um, you know, like we get something like, you know, uh, equal team taking
[11:41.220 -> 11:45.040] like a six place grid penalty, but books. Books will just quick to that.
[11:45.040 -> 11:47.400] So probably just going to wait till after qualifying.
[11:48.400 -> 11:49.880] They get some good lines last year.
[11:49.880 -> 11:52.760] Last year was the notorious bodice versus Latifi.
[11:54.160 -> 11:58.560] And bodice somehow made that a sweat like he seems to do everything.
[11:58.880 -> 12:00.680] So I guess, you know, we're on bodice.
[12:00.680 -> 12:04.520] We can let Nick talk about his book because the word
[12:06.640 -> 12:11.760] the streets are saying Alpha Romeo might have some major upgrades this week. That's just what the streets are saying.
[12:11.760 -> 12:15.280] Yeah, it was also just his birthday and he's not a duff man, so.
[12:17.280 -> 12:18.640] I mean, he deserves it, right?
[12:18.640 -> 12:20.640] Might not be all the way there this weekend, who knows.
[12:21.280 -> 12:27.840] Well, okay, so in all seriousness, though, I mean, alpha Romeo is going to try to do something
[12:27.840 -> 12:28.840] this way.
[12:28.840 -> 12:29.840] They have to at this point.
[12:29.840 -> 12:34.160] Um, but yeah, if you're going to bring an upgrade like that, they, they weren't too
[12:34.160 -> 12:38.120] bad in the free practice sessions from last year.
[12:38.120 -> 12:42.160] But again, it goes back to who we don't know what to expect with all these tires.
[12:42.160 -> 12:43.160] Right.
[12:43.160 -> 12:48.800] Um, you know, I, I still, I have a feeling that you're going to see a team,
[12:48.840 -> 12:52.740] just like we always say that is just not going to make it out of Q1 because of
[12:52.740 -> 12:57.040] their tires and that could be the Williams who, who, who the hell knows?
[12:57.040 -> 12:57.880] We don't know.
[12:57.880 -> 13:00.920] It's just, there's going to be some surprises.
[13:00.920 -> 13:08.040] So don't be shocked to see like a Yuki or Lawson make it into Q2 the
[13:08.040 -> 13:13.000] way and just easily cruise into it. So not saying that's going to happen. Please do not
[13:13.000 -> 13:21.080] bet that full. Please do not bet that. But yeah, but I do agree. No, go ahead. Russell
[13:21.080 -> 13:28.480] went out Q1 in Hungary on her. Yeah. Yeah. It's not a very, it's very possible.
[13:28.480 -> 13:35.440] And Albon. Okay. But I do agree. I do agree. Ferrari is that, I mean, this is their, basically
[13:35.440 -> 13:42.680] their last track to show. We're pretty dominant, sort of dominant. I want to say, I wouldn't
[13:42.680 -> 13:50.520] even say they're not really trying to do anything. I mean, we just saw last year, you know, do a glory run, you know, a qualifying.
[13:50.520 -> 13:51.760] This is their track, right?
[13:51.760 -> 13:54.120] This is where they should be performing.
[13:54.120 -> 13:55.120] This is the one.
[13:55.120 -> 13:56.120] Yeah.
[13:56.120 -> 13:59.040] Leclerc was top three in all of the qualifying sessions.
[13:59.040 -> 14:00.040] Yeah.
[14:00.040 -> 14:04.960] Signs won Q2 and then obviously Leclerc won Q3.
[14:04.960 -> 14:07.980] And then they also, you know, had free practice one last year.
[14:08.500 -> 14:11.620] Um, and you know, like with the hard tires, you know, or the, uh, hard,
[14:11.640 -> 14:15.740] medium, soft and qualifying practice should get a bit, a little bit iffy.
[14:15.840 -> 14:20.220] Um, Ferrari just has a little bit more incentive than everybody else to push.
[14:20.760 -> 14:23.520] Cause I mean, they've basically admitted they're, they're pretty much done for
[14:23.520 -> 14:24.500] the year, they're just focused.
[14:29.440 -> 14:31.520] But they still want to, this is still their home race and they still want to be able to perform
[14:31.520 -> 14:36.420] whether that's, we just get sixth and seventh,
[14:36.420 -> 14:39.960] but they definitely do not want any DNFs.
[14:39.960 -> 14:42.360] They just said, they definitely don't want that.
[14:44.160 -> 14:45.040] Yeah, man.
[14:45.040 -> 14:46.200] All right, Renegade.
[14:47.760 -> 14:48.680] What's going on?
[14:49.800 -> 14:50.960] I'm good, I'm good.
[14:50.960 -> 14:52.760] Good, yeah?
[14:52.760 -> 14:53.600] How are you feeling for this weekend?
[14:53.600 -> 14:54.840] I'm looking forward to the race.
[14:54.840 -> 14:56.160] Yeah?
[14:56.160 -> 14:57.000] Yeah.
[14:57.000 -> 14:59.500] Your Ferrari boy's gonna actually do it?
[15:00.660 -> 15:01.600] I don't think so.
[15:01.600 -> 15:03.840] The player has to take a good penalty.
[15:03.840 -> 15:04.680] Yeah.
[15:04.000 -> 15:05.000] I don't think so. Leclerc has to take a good penalty. Yeah.
[15:05.000 -> 15:15.640] So for the race, as been said, you know, going with Williams, I think Williams' double points
[15:15.640 -> 15:28.640] is pretty good. So one book, Paddy Powell, Betfair for everyone in Europe. They have double William points at 6.9 or plus 5.90.
[15:29.520 -> 15:34.400] It seems to be a bit of an outlier. I think that's a good price.
[15:36.640 -> 15:47.080] Sargent got into Q3 last week and when he's had a decent, he's looked all right in qualifying. I think he missed out in Baku also.
[15:47.080 -> 15:51.760] Just in Q3, he made a mistake, but he was looking good for it that week.
[15:51.760 -> 15:58.480] So I think the track will suit and the price is good enough to take.
[15:58.480 -> 16:00.240] Because Albon should be there.
[16:00.240 -> 16:08.840] It's really just betting on Sargent I think for the points.
[16:08.840 -> 16:12.520] So you said what was it 6.9 you said?
[16:12.520 -> 16:13.520] Yeah.
[16:13.520 -> 16:15.960] So plus 590.
[16:15.960 -> 16:20.600] I think Bovada has the top 10 both for Williams 450.
[16:20.600 -> 16:22.280] Pretty good.
[16:22.280 -> 16:23.280] Yeah.
[16:23.280 -> 16:24.280] Pretty good.
[16:24.280 -> 16:27.840] Always count on Bobana. man everyone's on Williams. I just
[16:27.840 -> 16:35.960] feel like I want to fade it now. you know one team that I think has been overlooked
[16:35.960 -> 16:43.560] is Alpine because he did really well to get that third place. Simes could barely keep
[16:43.560 -> 16:51.960] up with him in a Ferrari. so either we can take from that Sainz was having a very bad day or Alpine had taken
[16:51.960 -> 16:57.340] a step forward and no one's really noticed at all, which I think may be the case because
[16:57.340 -> 17:02.240] at Spa, they wouldn't, like that wouldn't happen where Alpine could even keep up with
[17:02.240 -> 17:07.240] Ferrari, but somehow he was able to keep third place.
[17:07.240 -> 17:09.120] Yeah, no, 100%.
[17:09.120 -> 17:12.080] And this is the type of track that should suit them better.
[17:13.000 -> 17:16.500] They seem to perform better with the low downforce tracks.
[17:19.400 -> 17:21.560] I think there's a, yeah, Alpine for sure
[17:21.560 -> 17:22.840] is being overlooked, and especially
[17:22.840 -> 17:26.500] for how their performance has been this year, everything, right.
[17:26.500 -> 17:29.060] It's been kind of a cluster for them this entire year.
[17:29.100 -> 17:33.260] So I would say keep an open mind.
[17:33.460 -> 17:36.460] If you are betting, obviously.
[17:37.060 -> 17:43.380] Watch the data, watch the news, everything that comes out, but do not be surprised
[17:43.380 -> 17:48.000] to see yes, an Alpine, but also like an Alpha Romeo or Alpha Tauri.
[17:48.000 -> 17:52.760] Like you might see a U-Keek be in the top 10 for all we know.
[17:52.760 -> 17:53.820] We don't know.
[17:53.820 -> 18:01.800] So it's, we've seen the same common message where Ferrari should do well here.
[18:01.800 -> 18:03.920] Obviously we know what Red Bull is going to do.
[18:03.920 -> 18:08.280] A lot of people are saying Aston Martin will not do as well, which there's,
[18:08.320 -> 18:09.080] that's fair.
[18:09.080 -> 18:18.140] They've done very mediocre to subpar at high down, uh, low downforce tracks, but
[18:18.140 -> 18:19.560] also keep an open mind about them.
[18:19.600 -> 18:22.900] Apparently they're bringing in upgrades this weekend and Alonzo actually
[18:22.900 -> 18:25.160] didn't have a bad race at Canada too.
[18:25.160 -> 18:28.720] So, I mean, he got second place in that one.
[18:28.720 -> 18:31.880] So, but I did want to go back to that comment.
[18:31.880 -> 18:34.480] You said LeClaire is taking a penalty
[18:34.480 -> 18:36.740] or will be taking one?
[18:37.640 -> 18:38.480] Do we-
[18:38.480 -> 18:39.320] Well, it's unknown,
[18:39.320 -> 18:43.520] but I think he had to change his gearbox for the race
[18:43.520 -> 18:45.520] and they had to put an old one on him.
[18:46.840 -> 18:47.440] Because it's special qualifying.
[18:47.920 -> 18:48.200] Gotcha.
[18:48.600 -> 18:50.920] Gotcha.
[18:51.480 -> 18:51.640] All right.
[18:54.520 -> 18:55.080] Well, I have a confession.
[18:58.560 -> 18:59.200] I made that bet for a top 10 Ferrari for the race.
[19:04.320 -> 19:04.960] I just said, I'm taking that minus 150 bet.
[19:05.000 -> 19:05.040] I just only put'm taking that minus 150 bet.
[19:07.940 -> 19:09.100] I just only put a unit on it.
[19:11.140 -> 19:14.260] I thought the number was too low. Even if he does take the penalty, still doesn't scare me.
[19:14.260 -> 19:17.820] I think he did, Ferrari, we could still just be able
[19:17.820 -> 19:19.660] to power through to the top 10.
[19:22.620 -> 19:24.100] But going beyond that,
[19:27.760 -> 19:31.040] that's where I would have trouble with them. So am I confident?
[19:31.040 -> 19:33.400] No, because it's Ferrari.
[19:33.400 -> 19:36.280] But the number was just right and it made sense.
[19:36.280 -> 19:42.320] And it does make sense because now Bovada has a price that minus 200.
[19:42.320 -> 19:47.120] And I think some other places have it at minus 190. So that was my only play.
[19:47.120 -> 19:54.320] Honestly, I'm on the camp of that will probably be my only play. I don't think I will play FP1.
[19:55.520 -> 20:07.440] I said that. However, I want to just give you live breaking news. Betus.com actually has top three practices up. You can still go there if you do want to try to
[20:07.440 -> 20:19.120] chase that Albon plus four. I think it's at 450 there right now. Yeah. So yeah, well, let's go
[20:19.120 -> 20:26.840] back full circle to my boy lights. You were you, you were, you were talking pickums.
[20:27.440 -> 20:30.080] You were also talking pits. What else,
[20:30.120 -> 20:34.120] or is there anything else that you're eyeing for the weekend or how much?
[20:34.880 -> 20:38.120] Just, uh, due diligence on some early week line shopping,
[20:38.140 -> 20:41.960] depending when you're listening to this. Um, some interesting value.
[20:41.960 -> 20:46.480] I found Paris top three sitting around one5 on MGM or B win.
[20:46.480 -> 20:54.320] Hard to see any situation where the Red Bull isn't flying one, two this weekend,
[20:54.320 -> 20:59.000] unless Ferrari can really bring the noise and preserve the tires and Perez makes a mistake.
[20:59.000 -> 21:02.320] But got to think it's his spot to lose top two, top three.
[21:02.320 -> 21:06.400] So minus 145, just kind of getting some really early action on that.
[21:06.400 -> 21:09.700] I have a feeling it might drop if he has a bad free practice session or something like that.
[21:09.700 -> 21:14.300] I can see Boki's overreacting to practice results on some of these favorites
[21:14.300 -> 21:16.000] and really they're just conserving tires.
[21:16.000 -> 21:22.500] But and so the the top times that they post won't necessarily be representative of their pace on Sunday.
[21:22.500 -> 21:26.000] I also think like some teams, Alfa Romeo, Aston Martin,
[21:26.000 -> 21:26.880] both bringing upgrades.
[21:26.880 -> 21:28.120] They'll be testing those on Friday
[21:28.120 -> 21:30.040] compared to other teams might be going light.
[21:30.040 -> 21:33.720] So yeah, I've taken a bite on some longer shots
[21:33.720 -> 21:35.080] for top six in FP1,
[21:35.080 -> 21:37.320] and those are still available on BWIN.
[21:37.320 -> 21:38.920] There's a whole list of them in the Discord.
[21:38.920 -> 21:40.560] Basically it's both Haas drivers,
[21:40.560 -> 21:41.920] both Alfa Tauri drivers,
[21:41.920 -> 21:43.760] and both Alfa Romeo drivers,
[21:43.760 -> 21:45.200] the bottom three teams essentially.
[21:45.700 -> 21:51.200] And then Norris, I think McLaren is testing a new lower drag,
[21:51.200 -> 21:52.600] lower downforce wing.
[21:52.600 -> 21:57.200] So I expect McLaren to be pushing relatively hard compared to the
[21:57.200 -> 21:58.800] rest of the grid on Friday as well.
[22:00.100 -> 22:03.000] And then yeah, kind of on brand with that Verstappen not to win
[22:03.000 -> 22:05.520] FP1 is at plus odds, plus 125. So yeah, I took a unit on that first happened not to win fp1 is that plus odds plus 125
[22:06.160 -> 22:09.120] Uh, so yeah took a unit on that as well. That's my friday so far
[22:10.000 -> 22:12.000] I like that one
[22:12.080 -> 22:13.680] Like that one
[22:13.680 -> 22:18.400] Even though I still I still have no idea how they're going to do their practice session. Uh
[22:20.160 -> 22:25.960] Wouldn't it be better to take the both team drivers? Red Bull minus 120
[22:26.480 -> 22:33.400] Over that one. Do you think for Perez instead of the Perez minus did you say that was top three for Perez minus 140?
[22:33.920 -> 22:36.200] Yeah, 145. Mm-hmm. I
[22:37.320 -> 22:39.320] mean
[22:39.640 -> 22:47.160] Isn't that max winning Red Bull? Minus 120 top three.
[22:47.160 -> 22:48.680] Yeah, I mean if she could
[22:48.680 -> 22:50.100] just that's pretty much a walk.
[22:50.100 -> 22:51.120] Yes, it's a minus.
[22:51.120 -> 22:52.640] Is is checko going to actually
[22:52.640 -> 22:53.960] finish in the top three?
[22:53.960 -> 22:57.140] Do we? Do we have confidence in him this week?
[22:57.140 -> 23:00.720] On Sundays on Sundays, he's good for it.
[23:00.720 -> 23:01.520] Still Red Bull.
[23:06.000 -> 23:08.000] Yeah. Well, what else do you have, Chris?
[23:08.000 -> 23:12.000] I like the winning margin race day.
[23:12.000 -> 23:14.000] Over 12 seconds.
[23:14.000 -> 23:16.000] That's a minus 140.
[23:16.000 -> 23:18.000] Last year, I was just looking it up.
[23:18.000 -> 23:24.000] Max had a almost 18 second gap at the second place before the other came out.
[23:24.000 -> 23:27.160] And that's from starting at 7 so
[23:27.960 -> 23:31.720] We're done. We know he's not taking a penalty. So at minimum he's starting at second
[23:32.360 -> 23:37.540] I thought I would even almost risk at the 22nd. I think that's a post 165, but just to be safe
[23:37.540 -> 23:44.680] I think to fall is I mean a shoe in that's a 140 barring we don't get the the late safety car
[23:47.280 -> 23:53.760] went. That's a 140. Barring we don't get the late safety car. Like I said, last year he had an 18 second gap before that came out. So that would have cleared easy. And he's just so dominant.
[23:54.480 -> 23:57.680] We've seen him win by 30 this year. Why not 12?
[23:58.640 -> 24:03.760] Damn. God, over 12 second margins, that minus 140 now.
[24:04.640 -> 24:09.000] That's from, I mean, 140, that's still something I feel comfortable.
[24:09.000 -> 24:13.000] No, no, I'm just, it's funny how far we've gone now.
[24:13.000 -> 24:14.000] Yeah, yeah.
[24:18.000 -> 24:24.000] Yeah, I just brought up the last race, he had mediums, Charles was on softs, 18 seconds.
[24:24.000 -> 24:25.000] Yeah. Interesting. He had mediums charges on softs and 18 seconds.
[24:25.000 -> 24:26.000] Yeah.
[24:26.000 -> 24:27.000] Interesting.
[24:27.000 -> 24:28.000] All right.
[24:28.000 -> 24:32.000] Well, Jinx, what else you got?
[24:32.000 -> 24:34.000] Nothing really.
[24:34.000 -> 24:39.000] I mean, you know, for I'll probably be on Ferrari double points.
[24:39.000 -> 24:42.200] I know you brought up top six.
[24:42.200 -> 24:46.280] You know, that seems to be my way to lose money every week is just finding
[24:46.280 -> 24:48.800] ways to bet Ferrari to lose money.
[24:49.560 -> 24:52.120] Uh, so probably we'll find a way to do that this week.
[24:54.520 -> 24:56.160] Yeah, they just, they never fail.
[24:56.480 -> 24:58.000] It's unbelievable, man.
[24:58.120 -> 24:58.840] They're just
[25:00.040 -> 25:00.900] 155.
[25:00.900 -> 25:05.100] I mean, at a track like this, I mean, they'll probably have to, uh, get
[25:05.100 -> 25:06.960] some sort of damage, which is pretty easy.
[25:07.020 -> 25:13.340] Um, we saw that happen early, both, both races, um, at spa and at, uh,
[25:13.360 -> 25:14.360] where, where were we last week?
[25:14.360 -> 25:17.720] We were at Zandvoort last week when Chuck went through the grass.
[25:18.120 -> 25:23.560] Um, so, I mean, I mean, I know it just sounds boring this week, but, um, you
[25:23.560 -> 25:25.880] know, just really staying cautious. Um, And yeah, just sounds boring this week, but just really staying cautious.
[25:25.880 -> 25:32.440] Yeah, just staying cautious this week, trying to see what we can get.
[25:32.440 -> 25:35.000] I mean, last week I played safety cards.
[25:35.000 -> 25:37.880] I had under two safety cards, no BSC.
[25:37.880 -> 25:40.600] And you know, Zoe came through and wrecked that.
[25:40.600 -> 25:45.220] So I mean, just wait until we see what know, see what we got teams, you know,
[25:46.040 -> 25:47.560] coming with upgrades. I mean, we, it's just ridiculous.
[25:47.560 -> 25:51.720] I feel like to get McLaren, I mean, I guess, I mean, you look at McLaren
[25:51.720 -> 25:55.040] has been on the front row the last two years for a car that struggled with
[25:55.040 -> 25:58.040] as much top, uh, top speed as they have.
[25:58.400 -> 26:01.440] I mean, so maybe, you know, if you're feeling that, uh, I just feel
[26:01.440 -> 26:03.520] like the price is, uh, gone on them.
[26:03.520 -> 26:05.940] I did look, uh, I was looking at some odds.
[26:05.940 -> 26:08.820] Lance stroll is a one 10 for points.
[26:09.340 -> 26:13.340] Um, and this is, I mean, maybe one of his, I guess if he has a best track,
[26:14.020 -> 26:17.580] um, he would say this up until last year, he had started in the top 10.
[26:18.020 -> 26:21.100] Every single race here, except for last year, where him and
[26:21.100 -> 26:22.800] Vettel were both out in key one.
[26:23.260 -> 26:26.160] So, I mean, that's a lean if you can stomach a stroll.
[26:26.160 -> 26:28.320] I know Renegade likes doing that.
[26:28.320 -> 26:30.480] I've been known to fall into that trap too.
[26:30.480 -> 26:32.440] Stroll, God, he's annoying.
[26:32.440 -> 26:34.200] He, yeah, he-
[26:34.200 -> 26:37.340] But I mean, that's again, that's a team that's lacking,
[26:37.340 -> 26:40.080] lacking high speed, you know, so,
[26:40.080 -> 26:41.360] but who knows what the upgrades,
[26:41.360 -> 26:43.760] and then who knows what everyone's gonna set their wings at.
[26:43.760 -> 26:49.200] I mean, you know, I guess, you know, who knows? I mean, Haas should be fast,
[26:49.200 -> 26:54.160] William should be fast, but, you know, without the tire wear, you know, if you can't,
[26:54.160 -> 26:58.160] can't make the car last, you know, and who knows what the grid pedals are going to be. So
[26:58.160 -> 27:04.000] just wait until that news, you know, drops. And you could, you could take someone now and
[27:04.000 -> 27:05.960] in two days, they could be taking a 10 place
[27:05.960 -> 27:08.680] crit penalty and you're stuck with that.
[27:08.680 -> 27:13.680] Yeah, which is basically if you're gonna take a line,
[27:13.920 -> 27:17.440] I mean it has to be something where it's absolutely
[27:17.440 -> 27:20.560] superbly low from what you've seen in the past,
[27:20.560 -> 27:22.860] you're willing to just take it on early,
[27:24.200 -> 27:28.540] wait till the news, maybe it drops a little bit and you can double down on it
[27:28.540 -> 27:30.740] If that's just the play you want to do
[27:31.520 -> 27:32.640] but
[27:32.640 -> 27:34.640] It's really not
[27:35.600 -> 27:40.620] Man between the between that in the the way they're doing qualifying is gonna be tough but
[27:42.600 -> 27:44.600] We top ten is gonna be
[27:41.000 -> 27:43.000] But-
[27:45.000 -> 27:49.000] Yeah, top 10 is gonna be dicey. Well, so what's funny is the Alpine top 10 is plus 250.
[27:49.000 -> 27:51.000] We were just talking about them.
[27:51.000 -> 27:55.000] Normally they were like plus 400 last week, I think before.
[27:55.000 -> 27:56.000] 500.
[27:56.000 -> 27:57.000] 500.
[27:57.000 -> 27:58.000] Yeah, open up at five.
[28:00.000 -> 28:01.000] So this is what I'm talking about.
[28:01.000 -> 28:05.900] The markets are really just adjusting to this entire freaking thing
[28:12.340 -> 28:14.640] Mercedes plus one fifty. It's just like they're baiting you to take a lot of this. I've already been baited to take that ferrari
[28:16.640 -> 28:16.800] Yeah, I mean not
[28:21.920 -> 28:23.920] Could see a lot of you know, one off, you know one merkin one out one mcclaren in one out
[28:26.020 -> 28:27.200] Yeah, yeah, yeah.
[28:30.780 -> 28:31.620] All right, Renegade, talk to me.
[28:32.460 -> 28:33.300] Give me something. So.
[28:33.300 -> 28:35.300] Give me anything.
[28:37.280 -> 28:38.680] I'm gonna go with my favorite,
[28:38.680 -> 28:41.220] or fastest lap, fastest lap win.
[28:41.220 -> 28:44.580] Never fails, apart from last race, but.
[28:44.580 -> 28:45.440] Fastest lap. of the rain.
[28:46.480 -> 28:50.800] But I just looked at the weather forecast, it probably came on, there's no rain forecast
[28:50.800 -> 29:00.240] anymore, it's all gone. So I think Max's lap, Max's fastest lap is nailed on pretty much,
[29:00.240 -> 29:05.200] because there's no rain like there was at the end of the race at Zandvoort,
[29:05.200 -> 29:10.200] he should have the gap to pit if he wants to, or just go for it anyway.
[29:10.200 -> 29:17.600] And the one thing I would say is just before placing that,
[29:17.600 -> 29:20.600] is just to wait till qualifying, before qualifying,
[29:20.600 -> 29:26.620] just to make sure there isn't loads of top front runners taking grid penalties.
[29:26.620 -> 29:33.140] Because if there is, then there's the gap between for the people behind him to go get
[29:33.140 -> 29:35.420] the fastest lap instead.
[29:35.420 -> 29:44.840] Okay, yeah, it's minus 140 on Bavada, or you can take the fastest lap and win the race
[29:44.840 -> 29:45.980] at minus 125
[29:46.920 -> 29:48.920] We might as well at that point
[29:57.120 -> 29:58.960] Without
[29:58.960 -> 30:05.880] Without race margin, so you take fast out fastest lap and winning margin don't correlate.
[30:05.880 -> 30:12.560] All right. All right. It's still only 12. Not like we're asking too much.
[30:12.560 -> 30:17.400] Yeah, 12 is okay. 12 is okay. It's just a tough parlay. I know Betwin boosts.
[30:17.400 -> 30:21.920] Yeah, no. You get a little good. You get feisty feet. I mean, but you could just get it like
[30:21.920 -> 30:26.320] lap three and just hold it forever. All right, well, let's play.
[30:26.320 -> 30:27.800] Oh, go ahead.
[30:27.800 -> 30:31.720] I was just gonna say another market that I was looking at.
[30:31.720 -> 30:36.680] I have no opinion on it, but it was just a number of race leaders.
[30:36.680 -> 30:40.480] Oh, yeah, let's do it.
[30:40.480 -> 30:48.400] It's about I don't know for one plus one 75 for two and plus
[30:49.520 -> 30:51.520] 140 for three or more. I
[30:51.920 -> 30:53.920] Can't see three or more happening
[30:55.520 -> 30:57.840] So like one or two which one
[30:58.680 -> 31:02.840] You're it's pretty fun. You know, no grid penalty for max
[31:02.840 -> 31:03.840] You're thinking no grid penalty for Max?
[31:05.840 -> 31:10.280] You shouldn't have to. I think it's just one with Max just clearing it.
[31:12.880 -> 31:15.560] I mean a safety car may ruin it, but
[31:16.240 -> 31:22.380] I'm not going with that assumption that there will be one. I'm just gonna go with it'll just be one.
[31:22.660 -> 31:25.000] I'm just going to go with, it'll just be one.
[31:29.240 -> 31:29.280] I mean, how, how long are the pit stops here?
[31:30.080 -> 31:30.320] How long does it take?
[31:36.000 -> 31:37.200] What, like, is it a 21 second or what are we, what are we talking about?
[31:37.940 -> 31:39.060] Yeah, I don't know.
[31:39.540 -> 31:39.740] I don't know.
[31:44.000 -> 31:44.160] I had a theory, like, I'm wondering if, if teams are going to prioritize
[31:45.920 -> 31:50.560] tires for Sunday instead of Saturday, knowing they can pass, like, are they just going to run one set of softs
[31:50.560 -> 31:58.480] for Q3 or are they going to do, um, like a, you know, a bucket lap early on one new set
[31:58.480 -> 32:01.960] of softs and then go to another new set of softs and then have none on Sunday?
[32:01.960 -> 32:09.040] Are they going to say, well, as long as we're top six, we can probably pass everybody on pace. So let's just use one set.
[32:09.040 -> 32:15.440] Yeah, because last race we saw when they did the qualifying thing with,
[32:15.440 -> 32:18.720] because they have less tires as well, don't they, with their tire allocation.
[32:19.280 -> 32:19.520] Yeah.
[32:19.520 -> 32:24.960] I remember Hassad only had one new tire and they fell off. So I think that's an angle
[32:22.880 -> 32:27.680] had only had one new tire and they fell off. So I think that's an angle for race day as well.
[32:29.080 -> 32:33.600] But just given, given the track, I don't know if grid position is,
[32:33.600 -> 32:35.080] is important on Saturday.
[32:35.080 -> 32:37.760] So maybe they prioritize having new tires for Sunday.
[32:37.880 -> 32:43.000] I think, I think what we should also focus on is, you know, last year it was
[32:43.000 -> 32:45.160] mixed on how, uh, on the tire strategy. Uh, I think it was for Sapp and LeClaire Russell, they started on softs and went to mediums.
[32:45.160 -> 32:50.680] Russell, I think just did forget about the last, uh, safety car when they all pit.
[32:51.480 -> 32:57.640] But if it was just, just that one stop, it was, it was wildly different with each team.
[32:57.680 -> 33:00.880] So each per each team might have something different on how they
[33:00.880 -> 33:02.320] want to approach the race day.
[33:02.800 -> 33:04.720] I think five teams might have something different.
[33:04.720 -> 33:05.160] I think it was, it was, it was, it was, it was, it was, it was, it was, it was, it was, So each per each team might have something different on how they want to approach the race day.
[33:07.440 -> 33:07.680] I think five teams went with starting with softs.
[33:11.160 -> 33:11.400] Then went to hards or mediums while the others did mediums to heart.
[33:12.600 -> 33:13.640] No one started on hearts.
[33:17.840 -> 33:17.880] So hearts may be just, just been them.
[33:18.480 -> 33:22.520] Who cares? You use to probably that's kind of what's going to happen is one of the
[33:22.520 -> 33:26.560] hard set of tires is going to happen is one of the
[33:27.040 -> 33:30.600] hard set of tires is going to be used probably in an all day session.
[33:31.200 -> 33:31.500] Yeah.
[33:31.540 -> 33:33.040] Just ride the shit out of it.
[33:33.440 -> 33:33.760] Yes.
[33:33.760 -> 33:37.200] It burned, burned to the ground.
[33:37.960 -> 33:38.120] Yeah.
[33:38.160 -> 33:39.280] You save one.
[33:39.920 -> 33:46.760] And then the next session, let's just say FP2, is maybe they'll do like one set of softs
[33:46.760 -> 33:50.360] just to do a couple laps, quali, sim, whatever you,
[33:50.360 -> 33:53.120] or if they want to do race pace, whatever.
[33:53.120 -> 33:57.380] And then FP3 is when they might go use a medium,
[33:58.280 -> 34:00.480] vice versa, I don't know.
[34:00.480 -> 34:01.320] Yeah.
[34:01.320 -> 34:02.240] But hards for sure, we do know,
[34:02.240 -> 34:03.520] that's one thing we do know,
[34:03.520 -> 34:05.720] that's one thing we've un. That's one thing we've unlocked
[34:08.300 -> 34:08.820] That's a good. Yeah, I think that general theme is
[34:10.300 -> 34:17.320] There's gonna be some variants So lean into lean into the variants because of the tire strats and this specific track with with it being such low downforce
[34:18.520 -> 34:31.840] Yeah, not a good weekend to lean into the chalk for qualifying because we know it's gonna to be messy just based on these new variables that teams have to manage. Don't be afraid of some plus stuff on Saturday,
[34:31.840 -> 34:37.600] I would say, or on the pick-ems. You know somebody in the top half is going to go out in Q1, Q2.
[34:39.360 -> 34:43.360] I'd be leaning to the overs on the grid positions for Saturday qualifying.
[34:43.420 -> 34:45.480] leaning to the overs on the grid positions for Saturday qualifying.
[34:50.240 -> 34:53.880] And speaking of let's, can we just go quickly to some, did any of the price picks or underdog posts, anything
[34:55.800 -> 34:58.320] just because if just pit stops,
[34:58.360 -> 35:03.360] then I will give you guys a gift today as I have some general views as to what
[35:10.000 -> 35:10.640] a gift today as I have some general views as to what to expect in terms of starting positions for
[35:19.120 -> 35:19.760] qualifying. Four price picks underdog. It may be within one or two. Just factor that. They have
[35:26.720 -> 35:33.280] Lando Norris qualifying in the five and a half Hamilton, five and a half Sergio Perez, three and a half Leclerc, four and a half Oscar Piastri, seven and a half Russell, six
[35:33.280 -> 35:40.080] and a half signs, five and a half Alonzo, five and a half stroll, 10 and a half Esteban
[35:40.080 -> 35:45.600] Ocon, 10 and a half Gasly, 10 and a half, Albon seven and a half, just crazy.
[35:45.600 -> 35:55.400] Um, and then you have the bottom feeders, Yuki, Botas, Magnuson, Hulkenberg, Joe at
[35:55.400 -> 36:01.760] 15 and a half and guess who beats them by one position, Logan Sergeant, the American
[36:01.760 -> 36:02.760] freedom.
[36:02.760 -> 36:06.200] Yep. So that is just a little little
[36:07.000 -> 36:10.680] Fun stuff for you guys that are playing the prize picks underdogs
[36:11.320 -> 36:15.080] That's qualifying positions. That is not race positions. That's
[36:15.720 -> 36:20.780] You're gonna see it wildly wildly different between prize picks and underdog
[36:20.780 -> 36:29.760] But that should give you kind of a benchmark at what you can expect if you are playing it. So give yourselves a head start.
[36:29.760 -> 36:33.760] They just punted on the bottom of the grid, but the one that stands out to me there is
[36:33.760 -> 36:47.880] Hulkenberg. I don't think yes, half is justified. Like he's been pretty solid Q2. 100% I think he was one of them and I wanted to say.
[36:47.880 -> 36:50.280] Yeah, I guess it was.
[36:50.280 -> 36:53.420] It was, I think Lewis Hamilton qualifying position.
[36:53.420 -> 36:58.040] That's what scares me is the qualifying positions 5 1⁄2.
[36:58.040 -> 37:04.480] And say we have that Mercedes just about one Mercedes always bins it and in Q1 that was
[37:04.480 -> 37:05.800] one that also stuck out to me
[37:05.800 -> 37:07.520] as one of the higher positions.
[37:08.800 -> 37:11.280] And then we were talking about Alpine.
[37:11.280 -> 37:14.200] I actually was really tempted about doing Gasly
[37:14.200 -> 37:15.400] 10 and a half better.
[37:18.360 -> 37:20.800] This is for qualifying those Alpines, man.
[37:20.800 -> 37:23.200] They have such a, they probably have the widest range
[37:23.200 -> 37:24.040] on the grid.
[37:24.040 -> 37:26.760] They can be 19th, 20th, they can be 6 they probably the widest range on the grid. They can be 19 20th. They can absolutely take seven
[37:27.960 -> 37:32.760] that or a lot of 11s, what about what about Botas
[37:33.920 -> 37:40.120] Do actually you know what not just Botas Botas and Joe Alfa Romeo 15 and a half some something's gonna give right
[37:41.520 -> 37:43.680] between Magnuson Botas
[37:48.560 -> 37:54.680] Hulkenberg Joe, they're all in the same position. Something's got to give. So who is it? Who's getting out of that position? Is it Yuki? It might be
[37:54.680 -> 37:55.680] Yuki, right?
[37:55.680 -> 38:02.400] I think I feel like did Joe have a pretty good drive here last year?
[38:02.400 -> 38:07.600] In the practice sessions, he had a few sessions that he was okay. Actually,
[38:07.600 -> 38:13.200] I think he did end up in the points last year. He was pretty handling last year. Yeah.
[38:13.840 -> 38:15.600] They both made it to Q2.
[38:21.280 -> 38:25.000] Maybe, maybe Alpha is the play.
[38:25.060 -> 38:28.300] But anyways, I haven't booked anything on this app,
[38:28.300 -> 38:31.340] but it's something that gives you guys to know.
[38:31.340 -> 38:32.560] 214, yeah.
[38:36.020 -> 38:36.860] Yeah.
[38:37.680 -> 38:39.340] I have no other bets, guys.
[38:39.340 -> 38:42.220] I am doing the data watching, everything watching,
[38:42.220 -> 38:46.740] and I actually can't wait to actually play with the data this weekend.
[38:47.560 -> 38:49.900] Hopefully we're not expecting rain, correct?
[38:50.060 -> 38:51.180] We're nah, it should be dry.
[38:51.180 -> 38:51.580] I believe.
[38:52.500 -> 38:52.800] Wow.
[38:53.380 -> 38:54.980] First race weekend with no rain.
[38:54.980 -> 38:57.520] And yeah, it's going to be interesting to get back into it.
[38:57.520 -> 38:59.540] Let's let's throw the wrench of the tires.
[39:00.980 -> 39:01.820] Yeah, of course.
[39:02.320 -> 39:07.600] Would have been fun if there was rain, the qualifying format in a sprint race.
[39:07.600 -> 39:09.720] Why not just throw it all three in there?
[39:09.720 -> 39:10.720] Yeah.
[39:10.720 -> 39:15.920] And we'll see what grid penalties, you know, still thought we would hear something today,
[39:15.920 -> 39:21.400] but yeah, maybe some value, the value of the discord.
[39:21.400 -> 39:26.000] There's 1300 of us jamming the live news of grid penalties compared to one
[39:26.000 -> 39:30.800] line maker, one underpaid sorry line maker might be based in Europe or North America,
[39:31.920 -> 39:37.360] middle of the night his time. Yeah, it's important to get with a good group of people that are
[39:37.360 -> 39:43.760] scouring the secondary F1 Twitter, you know, Italian, all Italian. Yeah, which
[39:44.000 -> 39:44.960] on Twitter, you know, Italian, all Italian language.
[39:47.920 -> 39:48.400] Yeah. We got no we got no issue translating a Web page.
[39:49.600 -> 39:52.160] Exactly. Yeah. You got to get you got to get in the discord for breaking news
[39:52.160 -> 39:55.120] because those lines, they're only open for 10, 15 minutes before they get flooded.
[39:55.120 -> 39:58.680] So have all your all your lines loaded with some with some bankroll.
[39:58.920 -> 40:02.160] We're sorry, all your books, excuse me, and keep your discord app open.
[40:04.320 -> 40:05.520] Love it.
[40:05.520 -> 40:07.560] Well, let's do one last round and see,
[40:07.560 -> 40:09.520] that was great information, by the way.
[40:11.020 -> 40:14.340] Any other, any last tips from everyone?
[40:15.340 -> 40:17.800] Since that was a good one right there.
[40:19.800 -> 40:21.120] Just to close it out.
[40:21.120 -> 40:22.160] Not too much from mine.
[40:23.600 -> 40:28.440] Jinx Renegade, do you have any last tips for our listeners?
[40:28.440 -> 40:35.680] I would just say on race day there's always at Monza, which is usually grid penalty central,
[40:35.680 -> 40:41.720] is that there's always like a rogue dispatched and started from the pit lane on race day.
[40:41.720 -> 40:45.680] And with so many of them, I'm sure one of them is going to come up.
[40:49.120 -> 40:56.000] So you can take advantage somehow. I thought you were going to tell me there was going to be some rogue protester because if we talk protesters again I was going to smash my monitor.
[40:59.760 -> 41:01.920] The Italian mafia doesn't allow that.
[41:03.520 -> 41:07.280] There was a Zanvort, there was a Zanvort before the racing.
[41:07.880 -> 41:08.680] Oh, before.
[41:08.680 -> 41:09.960] Oh, they're wising up.
[41:09.960 -> 41:12.160] They're catching on to our time before.
[41:13.400 -> 41:16.120] Zanvort's too easy to get to with mass transit.
[41:17.320 -> 41:18.880] Yeah. Yeah.
[41:21.720 -> 41:24.360] Well, guys, this has been fun.
[41:30.000 -> 41:37.920] I'm going to tell all our listeners again, get in our Discord. We're going to have live action, news, bets, everything. I mean, we're about 24 hours for
[41:37.920 -> 41:48.160] a lot of news to be really dropping. Obviously Friday is the big day. We'll see what happens then. But keep an open mind.
[41:48.800 -> 41:54.400] Don't expect that everything's going to play out the way it is or how we were talking about.
[41:54.400 -> 41:59.920] There could be some craziness. It's a wild weekend. Be careful. Don't really go all out
[41:59.920 -> 42:05.800] until you see things with your eyes. So meaning don't blind bet just yet.
[42:07.700 -> 42:09.420] But if you see a number and it looks good and it's got value, go for it.
[42:10.520 -> 42:14.800] Otherwise, that's it for all of us.
[42:14.800 -> 42:15.840] So thanks everyone.
[42:22.000 -> None] You